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New year, new administration, and a new event from TPM. We hope you’ll start the year with Josh, Kate, and Jackie at TPM’s first ever live podcast recording.

On January 15th — less than a week before Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term — Josh & Kate will discuss expectations for the new administration and how Democrats can claw their way back into political power.

After the show there will be a brief audience Q&A, followed by a cocktail hour where some other TPM staffers will be around to chat. All attendees receive one complimentary cocktail.

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Date

January 15th, 2025

Time

Doors open at 6:30 p.m.

Pod begins at 7 p.m. with a brief audience Q&A to follow

Cocktail hour following the Q&A until 10 p.m.

Location

1201 K Street NW Washington DC, 20005

Ticket Information

(Members should have received an invite by email with special offer codes. Please check your email or email us at members dot talkingpointsmemo dot com to get your code)

Free for Inside Members

$50 for members

$75 for non-members

All attendees receive one complimentary cocktail

Some Thoughts on the Dylan Biopic

I got the opportunity to see the new Dylan movie at an advance screening a couple nights ago. And I wanted to share a few thoughts about it. I don’t know how to write a movie review. And I don’t know enough about movies to write one anyway. These are just some of my reactions.

First, for a tl;dr: I liked it. I recommend it. Especially if you’re at all a fan of Bob Dylan.

I’m a difficult audience for this kind of film. I know every detail and anecdote from the history the movie chronicles — each meeting, plot point, verbal exchange, performance. That’s not bragging. It’s an admission. I’m way too deep into this stuff. What that means is that it’s really hard for a biopic to recreate or dramatize these events in a way that does not seem, at least for me, sentimental, cliched, overdone. Even if you don’t know all the details as an obsessive, this material has been discussed and mythologized endlessly. How can it possibly be fresh? Biopics such as these often have a stations-of-the-cross air to them, with the hero floating from one iconic moment to the next. So there’s like a Sword of Damocles of cliché and treacleiness hanging over a project like this.

But for me, Like a Complete Unknown managed to avoid this pitfall, which surprised me. The sword doesn’t come down.

Continue reading “Some Thoughts on the Dylan Biopic”

How a Decades-Old Loophole Lets Billionaires Avoid Medicare Taxes

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

For most working Americans, paying their share of the taxes that fund Medicare is an unavoidable fact of life. It’s so automatic for many workers that they may not even realize it takes a bite out of every paycheck. In theory, everyone is required to contribute to the country’s health insurance program for seniors, no matter how poor or rich, from cashiers to CEOs.

Not on Wall Street. There, some of the most powerful people in finance found a way to opt out.

The trove of tax records behind ProPublica’s “Secret IRS Files” series contains plenty of examples of billionaire financiers who avoided Medicare tax despite earning huge amounts from their companies. In 2016, Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets, paid $0. So did Stephen Schwarzman, head of the investment behemoth Blackstone. Bill Ackman, the headline-grabbing hedge fund manager, was able to shield almost all his income from the tax.

How do they do it? Business owners, like any self-employed person, whether they’re a freelance Uber driver or a hedge fund manager, have the responsibility to declare their self-employment earnings on their tax returns. Indeed, the vast majority of small-business owners have no choice but to do so and pay the same taxes that wage earners pay, including Medicare.

But high-priced tax advisers, wielding a once-obscure bit of the tax code, found a way to make that obligation vanish. By carefully channeling profits through a company in a way that invokes that obscure provision, even a Steve Cohen, with a tax return showing he received hundreds of millions in profits from his hedge fund, can exempt that income from Medicare tax.

The three billionaires contacted for this article said they followed the law as written. They also pointed to the fact that they paid substantial income tax, which for them carries a much higher rate. Medicare tax is 2.9% for most people and 3.8% for high earners.

But these maneuvers by the rich hasten Medicare’s future crisis. Sometime in the 2030s, the program’s trust fund is due to run dry. Closing the loophole, along with eliminating other ways around the tax for wealthy business owners, could raise more than $250 billion over 10 years for Medicare, according to recent government estimates.

Over the past three years, ProPublica has mined the tax records of the rich to detail the many ways they avoid taxes. We’ve focused on basic structural features of the U.S. system that advantage them. We’ve uncovered maneuvers of questionable legality that seem to have escaped the notice of the IRS. The Medicare tax loophole occupies a gray area. The IRS definitely knows about it, but it’s unclear if the agency will be able to stop it.

The potential of the loophole first surfaced in the 1990s, and the IRS soon expressed the view that active business owners shouldn’t be allowed to exploit it. It was only in recent years, however, that the agency got tough. Today, the IRS continues to battle what it considers a serious abuse, waging a rare, long-shot campaign to prevent some of the nation’s wealthiest citizens from using the loophole.

The story of how America’s richest financiers avoid paying Medicare tax gives unique insight into the peculiar, messy way taxes work in the U.S. No one set out to create the loophole when it first entered the tax code in 1977. But a series of seemingly unrelated policy changes, together with a revolution in how American businesses are structured, conspired to deliver a major tax advantage to the wealthy. On Capitol Hill, interest groups have successfully defended that advantage, branding any effort to close the loophole as a tax hike on Main Street businesses.

Approaching its 50th birthday, the loophole, for now, lives on.

Fixing One Problem, Creating Another

Over the 2010s, years of budget cuts sliced deep into the IRS’ enforcement muscle. Audits, especially those of the wealthy and corporations, plummeted. In response, agency leaders decided to conduct a kind of triage and focus the IRS’ dwindling might on the most pressing and addressable problems. Among the agency’s early priorities was to curb the widespread use of the Medicare tax loophole.

Beginning in 2018, the agency began hunting for business owners who, in its view, were abusing the law. It launched over 80 audits aimed at hedge funds, private equity firms, consultancies and similar businesses. Cohen’s firm was just the sort of thing the agency was looking for.

Before Cohen became popular as the approachable, gap-toothed, sweater-wearing Mets-fan-in-chief, he was a controversial figure on Wall Street, the inspiration for the legal-risk-taking hedge fund lead character in the Showtime series “Billions.” Cohen made his fortune through his original hedge fund, SAC Capital, known for rapid-fire trades with a remarkable track record. In 2013, SAC pleaded guilty to five criminal counts of securities and wire fraud, agreeing to pay $1.8 billion in penalties and effectively shut itself down. Cohen was not personally charged. Turning the page, he soon formed a new hedge fund, Point72.

Steve Cohen at the SportiConference Invest In Sports 2023 at The Times Center on October 11, 2023 in New York City (Photo by Bryan Bedder/Sportico via Getty Images)

The IRS’ audit of Point72 focused on one thing: how the profits had flowed to Cohen. In 2015, his firm earned $125 million from clients, and the money was routed to him through Point72 Asset Management LP.

Those last two letters, which stand for limited partnership, were Cohen’s key to accessing the loophole.

For most of the last century, before hedge funds and private equity firms dominated Wall Street, limited partnerships played a very specific role. They allowed investors, as limited partners, to buy into a business — often oil drilling or real estate development — without the usual risks of ownership like being pursued for the business’s debts.

But by the 1970s, creative uses of limited partnerships proliferated. One variety caught Congress’ attention. Government employees were covered by public pensions and thus were not eligible for Social Security, but brokerages were pitching these employees on limited partnerships as a way around that. The government workers could buy a small share of a business and receive self-employment income that qualified them for future Social Security benefits.

The scheme was condemned by both parties. After all, Social Security was meant to reward people’s labor, not their investments. Only income earned by someone actively running a business should count toward Social Security.

The solution, Congress decided, was to exclude most income earned by limited partners. It wouldn’t count toward self-employment income and, as a result, wouldn’t be subject to self-employment tax, which goes to Social Security and Medicare. As part of a major 1977 Social Security reform bill, this soon became the law.

It seemed like an easy fix. At the time, limited partners were, as a rule, passive investors. The line between the two types of partners that made up a limited partnership was real: General partners ran the business, and limited partners didn’t.

“Limited partners were historically forbidden under state law from getting too involved in the business,” said Susan Hamill, professor of law at the University of Alabama. “If they got involved at all, they would simply be treated as general partners, and the liability shield would be stripped away from them.”

Lawmakers assumed things would continue as they’d always been. They didn’t. The 1977 law, it turned out, had passed at the dawn of a new age, one where limited liability became standard for business owners, not a special condition with strings attached.

A new business structure, the limited liability company, exploded in popularity in the ’90s. LLCs limited the legal liability of all owners regardless of their role. Limited partnerships morphed into something that functioned similarly. After the change, the fact that someone was a limited partner said nothing about what they did for the business. They could be the CEO or a passive investor. It became common for owners to serve as both limited and general partners.

In this new world, the 1977 law was no longer a narrow exclusion. It was a broad grant of tax avoidance to anyone with a canny tax adviser.

Point72 Asset Management LP was part of the trend.

To take advantage of the loophole, Cohen needed to channel his firm’s profits through a limited partner before the money reached him.

One obstacle, it might seem, was that Cohen was one person. How could he partner with himself? That part was simple. A partnership requires at least two partners, but they can be companies or people. Cohen created two business entities, each wholly owned by him. One became the limited partner, the other the general partner.

Over 2015 and 2016, Point72 Asset Management earned $344 million in profits; 99.98% of that went to the limited partner and was declared exempt from Medicare tax. While those profits were subject to the 40% income tax rate (as much as $136 million in tax), Cohen’s returns showed $0 in self-employment income both years, helping him avoid up to $11 million in Medicare tax.

The IRS audited those returns and determined that the full $344 million was self-employment income. Last year, Point72 challenged that finding in court in a case that continues to this day. A spokesperson for Cohen declined to comment, citing the ongoing litigation.

“A Nasty Little Tax Increase”

Almost as soon as LLCs began their rapid spread, IRS officials recognized the possibility of widespread avoidance of self-employment tax. The problem became more urgent after 1993. Since its beginning, Medicare tax had, like Social Security, been capped. But Congress, in need of more revenues to support Medicare, eliminated the cap. Suddenly, avoiding Medicare tax might save a business owner millions of dollars instead of, in 1993, under $4,000.

In 1997, the IRS proposed a rule that would dictate how the 1977 law should be interpreted. A limited partner would mean essentially what it had meant back in 1977, when the term described passive investors. People who worked more than 500 hours (about three months) annually for the business could not be a limited partner under Section 1402(a)(13), the loophole’s place in the tax code.

IRS rule proposals are usually soporific affairs closely watched only by tax practitioners. But in early April 1997, fax machines in Republican congressional offices spat out a message that ended this rule’s obscurity.

The IRS was about “to slip through a nasty little tax increase on America’s partnerships,” the memo read. It was from Steve Forbes, the millionaire magazine publisher and 1996 Republican presidential candidate. He’d centered his self-funded campaign around the idea of a “flat tax,” under which he promised “the IRS would be RIP.” Now he was rallying his party against what he called a “stealth tax increase.”

His message reached Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host, who was then at the height of his influence. Soon after Limbaugh mentioned Forbes’ faxed memo on his nationally syndicated show, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, a Georgia Republican, called in.

Congress would “intervene directly,” Gingrich promised. “And as you yourself pointed out earlier, we didn’t get elected to raise taxes. We got elected to lower taxes and simplify them and to end the IRS as we know it,” he said.

“Now, folks, that is fast action,” Limbaugh boasted.

A coalition of powerful trade groups hurriedly formed to pressure Congress to follow through on Gingrich’s vow. The rule change would raise taxes by more than $1 billion over the following decade, they estimated, and must be stopped.

The coalition represented businesses that were both small and decidedly not small (among the members were the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Securities Industry Association). But their message emphasized the rule’s impact on the “small business community.”

In fact, most small-business owners already paid Medicare and Social Security taxes. Then, as now, the most common form of small business was the simple sole proprietorship, taxspeak for a business with a single, human owner.

By July, the coalition had prevailed. A short provision of a major bill, the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, forbade the IRS from issuing any new rule “with respect to the definition of a limited partner” in the next year.

The IRS had been roundly rebuffed. It would be almost two decades before the agency would seriously consider trying again.

In the meantime, the options for business owners to skirt Medicare tax multiplied. New forms of partnerships arose, and the subchapter S corporation, which offered its own loophole around Medicare tax, emerged as an even more popular vehicle. The breadth of the tax avoidance meant that opposition to closing those loopholes would be even fiercer the next time there was a major threat.

“100% Political Fear”

In early 2010, President Barack Obama’s administration and a Democratic Congress were struggling to pass the Affordable Care Act when they hit on a way to help fund it. The proposal boiled down to an expansion of Medicare tax. Whereas before it had only applied to income from work, now, for high earners, it would extend to investment income like dividends and capital gains. The rate would also go from 2.9% to 3.8%.

But, while new forms of income would now be subject to the tax, the proposal intentionally left huge gaps. It wouldn’t touch the ability of business owners to use loopholes to avoid Medicare tax and would even limit their exposure to the new tax on investment income.

Why create a new, complicated tax that favored some forms of income over others, asked Jason Furman, then a member of Obama’s National Economic Council. In a meeting with Obama and his advisers, Furman advocated for a simple, uniform version of the tax that would also close the loophole, he said. The president agreed on the merits, Furman said. But arousing the opposition of the business lobby could endanger the whole bill. It wasn’t worth the risk. “It was 100% political fear,” Furman said.

A monumental health care reform effort like the ACA was already controversial, and members of Congress were looking to get it passed, said Robert Andrews, a former New Jersey Democratic representative and lead negotiator on the bill. They chose the funding option “with the least political risk,” he said.

“This was an ugly compromise, and I think we knew it was an ugly compromise and worth it for the greater good,” Furman said.

Pushing Around the Edges

As the years passed and no legislative fix came, the IRS vacillated on what to do about the limited partner loophole. The Treasury Department decides which tax regulations to pursue, and under the Bush and then the Obama administration, there wasn’t appetite for another bruising fight over a new rule. At the same time, IRS officials decided they couldn’t ignore what they viewed as widespread abuse of Section 1402(a)(13).

They decided on a middle path, said Curt Wilson, who in 2008 became the senior IRS attorney overseeing partnership issues. “We looked for places where we could push around the edges, so to speak,” he said.

This wasn’t a crusade. But in audits, when the opportunity presented itself, the agency cracked down on what it saw as abuse of the loophole. Agents focused on some of the newer forms of partnerships that had sprouted since 1977. LLCs were the prime target.

“We were looking at hedge funds, private equity firms, things like that where there were big dollars,” Wilson said. The goal was to make a splash with a precedent-setting case.

Landing that big case proved elusive. Instead of fighting it out in court, taxpayers were content to privately settle the audits with the IRS’ appeals division, Wilson said. The IRS did its best to send a message, releasing an advisory letter in 2014 to a hedge fund that said the fund’s LLC members didn’t qualify as limited partners. But that wasn’t a binding rule, and it fell short of a headline-grabbing court decision.

What’s more, the IRS risked playing Whac-A-Mole. Even if the agency succeeded in dissuading taxpayers from using the loophole with LLCs, business owners could simply register their business as a limited partnership instead. As the granddaddy of partnerships with limited liability, the LP, the original limited partnership, offered taxpayers the strongest claim for invoking the loophole.

ProPublica’s database of IRS data includes the tax returns of thousands of wealthy business owners through 2018. These titans of capitalism, despite huge flows of ordinary income, often reported remarkably little self-employment income in the 2010s. The LP appears to have been their favored variety of partnership.

In 2017, Bill Ackman earned $413 million in income through an LP operated by the hedge fund he manages, Pershing Square, famous for taking activist stances in companies. As was typical in other years, Ackman reported self-employment income of $4.7 million, a small fraction of his total business earnings. The difference meant he paid $142,000 in self-employment tax instead of more than $13 million.

In a statement, a spokesperson said: “Mr. Ackman has followed the advice of his tax advisors whose interpretation of the law has been the industry standard since 1977. Should the law change, Mr. Ackman will of course adjust his tax payments accordingly.”

In 2018, at least $143 million flowed via a Blackstone LP to Stephen Schwarzman, the firm’s CEO. As in years past, he exempted the income from Medicare tax. Schwarzman, who sits atop an investment firm with over $1 trillion in assets, reported no self-employment income at all in five of the seven years between 2012 and 2018.

“Mr. Schwarzman is one of the largest individual taxpayers in the country and fully complies with all tax rules,” a spokesperson said.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 02: Stephen A. Schwarzman and Christine Hearst Schwarzman attend The 2022 Met Gala Celebrating “In America: An Anthology of Fashion” at The Metropolitan Museum of Art on May 02, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)

Attacking Head-On

The IRS’ announcement of its audit campaign in 2018 meant the agency would stop pushing around the edges and unleash a frontal assault: Its audits would target not just the newer form of partnerships but also LPs.

This time, after years of audits and appeals within the IRS, the agency finally got its splashy court case. Many taxpayers chose to settle, but Cohen’s partnership and at least five others took their cases to tax court, the first in 2022. All argued they were following the law.

Soroban Capital, a hedge fund, was audited after converting to an LP from an LLC. Demonstrating the gulf between owners and employees, Soroban’s three partners collected $142 million in income over the two years of the audit, while paying a total of $74 million in salaries and wages (subject to Medicare tax) to the fund’s staff.

Soroban’s founder, Eric Mandelblatt, was once an employee. His compensation from Goldman Sachs cost him $128,000 in Medicare tax one year, according to ProPublica’s IRS database. After he started his own hedge fund and began earning tens of millions more, his Medicare tax bill never exceeded a third of that, the records show. Soroban did not respond to requests for comment.

In 2023, the IRS won a major tax court decision against Soroban. The “limited partner exception of I.R.C. § 1402(a)(13) does not apply to a partner who is limited in name only,” the court said, because Congress had only intended to “exclude earnings from a mere investment.” A “functional analysis,” the court said, was needed to determine whether a partner was really “limited.”

With the Soroban decision, the loophole entered a new stage in its history. It’s the most serious challenge since 1997 when, protected by Congress, the loophole emerged not only unscathed but stronger. This time, it’s up to the federal judges who will be reviewing appeals of the tax court’s rulings in the IRS’ cases.

One of the audit targets, Sirius Solutions, a consultancy, has already sought a more sympathetic venue than the U.S. Tax Court. Last summer, it turned to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, known for its conservative bent. Industry groups representing the hedge fund and real estate industry have filed amicus briefs. Tax law experts told ProPublica they are skeptical the IRS’ position will ultimately prevail.

Still, amid this uncertainty, the Treasury Department and IRS last year announced plans to start work on a regulation for Section 1402(a)(13). It’s a process that could take years if it isn’t halted by the incoming administration. If a new rule is finally released, it might again face a hostile Congress. It would also be subject to challenge in the courts.

As has always been the case, the simplest solution is for Congress to change the law. Democrats will keep trying, said a former senior congressional aide, especially when they propose some new expensive initiative and need ways to pay for it.

Including a fix for the Medicare tax loopholes is “a beautiful pay-for,” he said. “It’s real money, and there are not a lot of options sitting around that are this obvious and relatively straightforward technically.”

The last attempt came a couple years ago, when Democrats needed to cover the cost of their $2.4 trillion climate bill. Build Back Better, as it was initially called, passed the House with a provision similar to Furman’s gap-plugging tax. The proposal was estimated to raise $252 billion over 10 years.

But the bill stalled in the Senate, where Democrats needed every vote. In the summer of 2022, negotiations suddenly approached consensus on a new, slimmer bill, soon dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. The gap-plugging tax was part of the mix.

As they had 25 years before, business groups quickly rallied. Several dozen trade groups co-signed a letter to congressional leaders. The National Federation of Independent Business launched radio ads. “Now Congress is considering a brand-new tax on West Virginia small businesses, an additional tax wrongly characterized as the closing of a loophole,” ran one ad targeting Sen. Joe Manchin, one of the two key swing votes.

When a deal was finally announced on the bill, the proposal was gone. There had been other, less politically dangerous options to raise revenue.

Trump Casts The Worst And Dimmest For Season 2

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The High Price Of Kakistocracy

As we inch toward the holidays and the news slows, I wanted to step back and offer a bit more context on the slew of absurdist Trump nominations. The sheer number of unqualified miscreants that Trump has chosen to cast for his second season is overwhelming to the mind and to the mechanisms in place to screen out the worst and dimmest.

“The volume of controversial nominees will force senators to prioritize their battles, allowing some to advance simply due to limited time and attention,” law professor Alan Z. Rozenshtein writes at Lawfare.

I highly recommend Rozenshtein’s piece. It places Trump’s approach to nominations in a broader historical and political context. Here’s a sampling:

Trump’s nominations represent an unprecedented triple assault on constitutional appointment norms: First, many are unqualified or hostile to their agencies’ missions. Second, rather than making a few controversial picks, Trump has flooded the zone, nominating an entire slate of problematic candidates that burdens the Senate’s capacity for proper vetting. And third, Trump has signaled willingness to circumvent the confirmation process through legally dubious tactics such as forced Senate adjournment. Together, these moves threaten to transform the appointments process from a constitutional safeguard into a vehicle for installing loyalists regardless of competence.

As Rozenshtein points out, the constitutional structure was intended to give considerable latitude to the president on appointments with the idea that he would be directly politically accountable to the electorate if he stocked his administration with grifters and clowns. Perhaps Trump’s 2020 defeat validates that structural approach, but his re-election has put the whole edifice under considerable strain.

Trump II Clown Show

  • Trump selects Herschel Walker as ambassador to the Bahamas.
  • WSJ: How Tucker Carlson Killed Mike Pompeo’s Hopes of Joining the Trump Administration

Disney Did It

ABC News’ settlement of Donald Trump’s defamation claim was largely driven by parent company Disney, according to the NYT:

The concerns about the case among Disney executives, and the eventual decision to settle, involved multiple considerations, according to three people inside the company with knowledge of the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private matter. The settlement was recommended by Horacio Gutierrez, Disney’s general counsel, and approved by Robert A. Iger, Disney’s chief executive. It was not elevated to a company board vote.

Trump’s Favorite Piñata

Politico: Trump is already delivering on his promise to go after the press

Lawsuit Or Press Release?

The text of Donald Trump’s lawsuit against the Des Moines Register, pollster Ann Selzer, and Gannett because he didn’t like the shock poll showing him trailing Kamala Harris in Iowa is worth a read for the pure absurdity of it all.

Food For Thought

Morning Memo has identified retribution, corruption, and destruction as the three primary organizing principles for a Trump II presidency, but I wanted to offer a counterpoint from Marcy Wheeler on whether “retribution” is the proper way to frame it: “If you use the term “retribution” to describe Trump’s attacks on the press, you are accepting his frame that free speech that accurately describes his faults is somehow wrong, an injury to be avenged.”

Bigly Reaction

Trump melts down over his latest setback in the hush money case.

AOC Loses Bid To Be Ranking Member On Oversight

House Democrats fell back on seniority in electing 74-year-old Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) to be the ranking member on the Oversight Committee, thwarting the upstart bid from 35-year-old Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Shutdown Watch

Because a government shutdown has seemed like a remote possibility, Morning Memo has eschewed covering it breathlessly, but with the Friday deadline looming, the language of a continuing resolution to fund the government through mid-March was finally released Tuesday evening. It’s going to be a tight needle to thread but it still looks more likely than not to be be passed by or shortly after the deadline with minimal disruption. There will be a lot of howling from the farthest-right GOP members though.

What A World

WSJ: Federal Judge Broke Ethics Rules by Criticizing Justice Alito During Flag Flap

Good Read

Thomas Zimmer, on the link between modern conservatism and the Trumpist right:

If we take Modern Conservatism seriously, we should not be all that surprised by the radicalizing dynamic that has ultimately led to the Trumpist Right’s triumph. That outcome was never determined and depended instead on a lot of contingent factors, the structures of the political system, and individual decisions by influential rightwing leaders. It does not, however, constitute a departure from or a betrayal of the “true” Modern Conservative tradition. The political project that coalesced in the 1950s was always exceedingly clear about its goals and priorities. From the start, it was centered around its commitment to a specific societal order – and by its hostility towards the “left”-coded forces working to change, undermine, or subvert it. It always defined the stakes of the conflict as existential because it set out to defend a “natural order” that was not up for political deliberation or subject to democratic control.

Pure Absurdism

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Remember North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R)?

His failed campaign as the Republican nominee for governor was disrupted by, among other things, a CNN report that more than a decade ago he called himself a “black NAZI!” and a “perv” in frequent posts on a porn website using the alias “minisoldr.” He denied the allegations. But now WRAL is reporting that Robinson logged in to state virtual meeting last week about Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s inauguration using the “minisoldr” handle.

“Mark’s personal username has been MiniSoldr for more than 20 years,” a Robinson spokesperson said in an email. “Anyone who has been following Mark for any period of time knows this. People attempt to impersonate him all the time by utilizing variations of the name.”

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

Come See Us Live On Jan. 15

Folks, we’re really excited about this. We’re hosting the first live, in-person version of The Josh Marshall Podcast Featuring Kate Riga on January 15th in Washington, DC. Tickets just went on sale. They’re $75 per person and $50 for members. If you’re a member you’ll already have gotten an email with a link to get the membership pricing. We’ll do a live version of the podcast with the audience, followed by a Q&A and then a bar with drinks for chatting and discussion afterwards. We are really looking forward to it and we really hope you can join us.

Cash bar and every ticket comes with a coupon for your first drink. Tickets are free for TPM Inside members (again, you’ll have gotten an email). If you’re a member and for some reason haven’t received an email just drop us a line at memberships at talkingpointsmemo dot com.

House Republican Leadership’s Nerve-Racking Tuesday

I wrote last week about the historically tiny majority House Republicans will hold as they attempt to enact the worst pillars of Donald Trump’s agenda at the start of the 119th Congress.

You can read the details here, but the short version is this: due to vacancies Trump himself created by appointing members of the House Republican conference to key administration positions (plus the whole Matt Gaetz saga), Republicans will start the year unable to lose one single vote in their conference in order to pass legislation (if all Democrats are present and vote together).

Continue reading “House Republican Leadership’s Nerve-Racking Tuesday”

A Big Pile of Money and Lawyering to Defend Trump’s Legal Targets?

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory and promised revenge tour, a number of individuals have proposed the creation of an organization or fund which would take on the job of defending the various lawsuits, prosecutions and generalized legal harassment Trump will bring to the table in the next four years. It’s a very good idea. It’s a necessary one. Over the last six weeks I’ve had a number of people reach out to me and ask who is doing this. Where should they send money to fund this effort? This includes people who are in the small-donor category and also very wealthy people who could give in larger sums. So a few days ago I started reaching out to some people in the legal world and anti-Trump world to find out what’s going on, whether any efforts are afoot and who is doing what.

What I found out is that there are at least a couple groups working toward doing something like this. But the efforts seem embryonic. Or at least I wasn’t able to find out too much. And to be clear, I wasn’t reaching out as a journalist per se. I was explicitly clear about this. I was doing so as a concerned citizen, not to report anything as a news story but as someone who wants such an entity to come into existence. The overnight news that Trump is now suing Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register over her final election poll for “election interference” makes me think that these efforts aren’t coming together soon enough or can’t come together soon enough. (If you’re not familiar with the details, Selzer is a pollster of almost legendary status and in what turned out to be her final public poll, dramatically missed not only the result of the election but the whole direction of it.) So what I’m going to write here is simply my take on why such an effort is important and what shape it should take.

Let’s start with the practicalities.

Continue reading “A Big Pile of Money and Lawyering to Defend Trump’s Legal Targets?”

The 18th-Century Law Trump Says He’ll Use For Mass Deportations Has Only Been Invoked During Times Of War

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

President-elect Donald Trump often said during the 2024 presidential campaign that he plans to launch the nation’s largest-ever mass deportation operation in his second term.

Trump has pledged to carry out this work by using an obscure 18th-century law called the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

The act empowers presidents to apprehend and remove foreign nationals from countries that are at war with the United States. U.S. presidents have issued executive proclamations and invoked this law three times: during the War of 1812, World War I and World War II. All three instances followed Congress declaring war.

Why bother dusting off a 226-year-old law?

Invoking the Alien Enemies Act could make it far easier for the Trump administration to quickly apprehend, detain and deport immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization. That’s because the law lets presidents bypass immigration courts.

In my view, if Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act to carry out his mass deportation plans, it almost certainly would trigger major court battles in which the text, early history and previous uses of this antiquated law take center stage.

Guatemalan immigrants arrive in Guatemala City on an ICE deportation flight in February 2017, during the first Trump administration. John Moore/Getty Images

Repressive origins and populist backlash

The Alien Enemies Act traces back to the late 1700s, when the Federalists, an early political party, controlled Congress. The Federalists wanted strong national government as well as harmonious diplomatic and trade relations with Great Britain.

The Federalists became outraged when the French government began seizing U.S. merchant ships in the Caribbean that were trading with Britain, which France was waging war against at that time.

The opposing Democratic-Republican Party, led by Thomas Jefferson, supported France in its fight against Great Britain.

The Federalists in Congress considered Jefferson’s pro-France position against the U.S. interests. They also were troubled that the Democratic-Republicans were backed by thousands of French and Irish immigrants who had some political clout in big cities such as Philadelphia and New York.

So in 1798 the Federalists tried to quell domestic opposition by passing the Alien and Sedition Acts, a series of controversial laws that banned political dissent by limiting free speech. The laws also made it harder for immigrants to become citizens.

One of these laws was the Alien Enemies Act, which gave presidents broad authority to control or remove noncitizens ages 14 or older if they had ties to foreign enemies during times of a declared war.

The Alien and Sedition Acts elicited a firestorm of criticism soon after they were passed, including from Jefferson and James Madison, who asserted that states have the right and duty to declare some federal laws unconstitutional. The populist backlash against the Alien and Sedition Acts helped propel Jefferson and Democratic-Republicans to victory in the 1800 presidential election. Nearly all of the Alien and Sedition Acts were then either repealed or allowed to expire.

Only the Alien Enemies Act, a law enacted without an expiration date, survived.

The history of the Alien Enemies Act

Madison, the fourth U.S. president, first invoked the Alien Enemies Act during the War of 1812 with Great Britain, which was sparked for several reasons, including trade and territorial control of North America.

Madison invoked the Alien Enemies Act in 1812 by proclaiming that “all subjects of His Britannic Majesty, residing within the United States, have become alien enemies.”

But rather than imposing mass deportations, Madison’s administration simply required British nationals living in the U.S. to report their age, home address, length of residency and whether they applied for naturalization.

More than 100 years later, President Woodrow Wilson invoked the Alien Enemies Act during World War I in April 1918.

Wilson used the Alien Enemies Act to impose sweeping restrictions on the residency, work, possessions, speech and activities of foreign nationals from places that the U.S. was at war with – Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria. U.S.-born women married to any people born in these places were also deemed “enemy aliens.”

The U.S. Marshals Service carefully monitored about half a million Germans in the U.S. to make sure they followed Wilson’s restrictions.

Another 6,000 German “enemy aliens” were arrested and sent to internment camps in Georgia and Utah, where they were confined until after an armistice was signed between the Allies and Germany in November 1918.

Two decades later, President Franklin D. Roosevelt notoriously used the Alien Enemies Act in World War II.

In 1941, Roosevelt authorized special restrictions on German, Italian and Japanese nationals living in the U.S. More than 30,000 of these foreign nationals, including Jewish refugees from Germany, spent the war imprisoned at internment camps because the government considered them potentially dangerous. The U.S. government released these detainees after World War II ended.

The vast majority of the 110,000 Japanese American men, women and children interned during the war were not held under the Alien Enemies Act. The government used a separate executive order during World War II to intern most people of Japanese descent, some of whom were born in the U.S.

Donald Trump speaks about immigration at Montezuma Pass, Ariz., along the U.S.-Mexico border, on Aug. 22, 2024. Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images

What’s very old is new again

Civil liberties and immigrant rights groups have pledged to fight back by filing legal challenges if Trump forges ahead with plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act for the fourth time in U.S. history.

The Alien Enemies Act’s text and history present formidable legal hurdles for the Trump administration.

The 1798 law is clear that an “invasion or predatory incursion” must be undertaken by a “foreign nation or government” in order for it to be invoked.

Yet Congress has not declared war on any country in over 80 years, nor has another government launched an invasion against U.S. territory.

And drug cartels are not actual national governments running Latin American countries, so they don’t meet the criteria in the Alien Enemies Act.

Trump’s senior advisers, meanwhile, say with no clear evidence that the administration can justly claim that some Latin American governments, such as Mexico and Venezuela, are run by drug cartels that are attacking U.S. security. These officials also allege that these criminal organizations are launching state-sanctioned invasions of narcotics and unauthorized migrants.

Whatever the argument, the tenacious problem that the Trump administration will face is that neither the letter of the law nor historical precedents support peacetime use of the Alien Enemies Act.

None of these textual and historical realities will matter, however, if the courts choose not to intervene on the grounds that a president simply saying that the country is being invaded by a foreign nation is sufficient and is not subject to judicial review.

This possibility makes it impossible to automatically dismiss blueprints for using an 18th-century law, however dubious. If Trump succeeds at invoking the Alien Enemies Act, it would add another chapter to the Alien Enemies Act’s sordid history.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Judge Shuts Down Trump’s Latest Attempt To Skate On Hush Money Conviction

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Holding The Line

I want to be clear up front that the “wins,” such as they are, in the coming months are likely to be small, incremental, and not very dramatic. Morning Memo is going to refrain from pumping them up into more than they are. But ignoring them entirely would be a disservice to the folks grinding to preserve the rule of law, fight off MAGA’s destructive impulses, expose Trump corruption, and otherwise hold the line against further erosion.

Which brings us to a long-awaited ruling yesterday in the Trump’s hush money case.

Judge Juan Merchan didn’t just deny Trump’s move to overturn his conviction on the grounds that some of the evidence introduced at trial was in violation of the Supreme Court’s subsequent ruling on presidential immunity. Merchan eviscerated Trump’s arguments and ruled in such a way that makes Trump’s expected appeal quite a bit more difficult.

In his 41-page opinion, the judge foreclosed every manner and form of argument that Trump had made. Merchan ruled that Trump had failed to preserve most of his arguments by not raising them in a timely fashion, but the judge considered those arguments anyway – then rejected all of them as not meeting the Supreme Court’s standard for official conduct. Merchan then went a step further and concluded that even if Trump’s argument satisfied the standard for official conduct, prosecutors had not intruded on the function and authority of the presidency and thus sidestepped the Supreme Court’s immunity protections.

As a final flourish, Merchan concluded that even if he was wrong on all of the above, the introduction of the challenged evidence was a harmless error in light of the “overwhelming evidence” of Trump’s guilt.

It was a belt-and-suspenders-and-garter-and-braces decision by Merchan, shoring up every angle of attack that Trump might launch on appeal.

Will it matter in the end?

Merchan is still considering a separate Trump motion that the case should be dismissed since he won re-election. Sentencing is forestalled for now. It still seems unlikely that this case ever produces any meaningful punishment for Trump. But let the record show Merchan is still holding the line where he can.

MUST READ

TPM’s Hunter Walker and Josh Kovensky, reporting from the New York Young Republicans Club’s annual gala:

Sunday night offered a sneak preview of what life might be like in President-elect Donald Trump’s second term at the annual black tie gala of Manhattan’s most MAGA political club. It’s a world where fringe media outlets are ascendant, a new wave of religious leaders are mixing politics and prayer, the global right-wing is rejoicing, and more established press are being subjected to a new level of restrictions and derision. 

More Reaction To ABC News Settling The Trump Case

  • TPM’s Josh Marshall: “The key here is that it is almost absurd to expect that these big diversified corporations are going to operate in the interests of or run major risks on behalf of their very small news divisions. These are in almost every case liabilities in the context of a Trump administration.”
  • Eric Wemple: “ABC News will never live down this capitulation. Never.”
  • Parker Molloy: “This is how press freedom erodes—not through dramatic crackdowns, but through corporate calculation. When news organizations are owned by massive conglomerates, journalism becomes just another business interest to be traded away when convenient.”

Trump Sues Iowa Pollster Over Outlier Poll

In an absurd legal move, Donald Trump has filed a state lawsuit in Iowa against Gannett, the Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Selzer over a poll they published the weekend before Election Day showing Trump trailing Kamala Harris in the state, according to Fox News Digital. The shock poll showed Harris up 3 points; Trump won the state by 13 points.

The Era Of Grandiose Feelings

Trump on Tim Cook and other CEOs traveling to meet with him: "In the first term, everybody was fighting me. In this term, everybody wants to be my friend."

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) December 16, 2024 at 12:21 PM

Quote Of The Day

Brian Beutler:

Democrats have, by contrast, affirmatively decided not to treat anything Trump’s doing as untoward unless and until it pertains to things like health-care and tax policy. And in their terribly narrowcast conception of politics, other potential bulwarks against mafia-style government are collapsing.

Pete Hegseth Continues To Be Awesome

  • CNN: Pete Hegseth spread baseless conspiracy theories that January 6 attack was carried out by leftist groups
  • NYT: Hegseth’s Security Guard During His Confirmation Process Left the Army After the Beating of a Civilian During Training

For Your Radar

House Democrats will vote this morning on who will serve as ranking committee members, in what has been a low-key changing of the guard post-election.

The most-watched race is the bid by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) to leapfrog the more senior Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) to replace Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) as the ranking member on Oversight.

The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, which effectively makes these decisions most of the time, voted yesterday 34-27 in favor of elevating Connolly over AOC. But’s it not unheard of for the full Democratic caucus to yield a different result.

EXCLUSIVE

NYT: Giant Companies Took Secret Payments to Allow Free Flow of Opioids

Black Enrollment At Harvard Law Plummets

The first entering class at Harvard Law School since the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard outlawing affirmative action in college admissions had less than half as many Black students as last year’s entering class.

Absurdism Is A Key Ingredient Of Trumpism

President-elect Trump, on his pick to be the next U.S. ambassador to Uruguay: "Lou is a great golfer, and will be in a Country with some terrific courses."

David Gura (@davidgura.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T04:30:07.647Z

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MAGA Republicans Dodge Questions About Their Own Party’s Plans To Gut Social Safety Net

Some House Republicans in recent weeks have not exactly been shy about their interest in reviving the party’s longtime passion for gutting the social safety net in the wake of Donald Trump’s reelection and the coming Republican trifecta. 

Reports have surfaced indicating that some congressional Republicans are in talks with Trump advisers about making cuts to programs like Medicaid and food stamps to offset the cost of extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. Others are openly suggesting that Medicare and Social Security may be on the chopping block as part of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s performative venture into government spending cuts through the new Department of Government Efficiency. 

But MAGA Republicans on Capitol Hill who recently spoke to TPM were unwilling to be pinned down on the issue. 

Continue reading “MAGA Republicans Dodge Questions About Their Own Party’s Plans To Gut Social Safety Net”