If House Republicans manage to hang onto their majority next month, that’s just the beginning of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) problems.
Continue reading “Some House Republicans Try To Set Themselves Up To Not Be Completely Useless As A Majority If They Keep House”Some More Ground Operations Tea Leaves
The Times has a piece up this morning which is largely complimentary of Elon Musk’s political operation and Musk himself. It’s a far cry from the range of critical pieces which have been published elsewhere and which I’ve published. It rather confidently reports that Musk’s canvassers are hitting “well over 100,000 doors a day,” for instance, “according to a person with knowledge of the group’s activities.
Needless to say, that’s almost certainly someone from America PAC or someone who works directly for Musk. So the Times appears to be going purely off their say so. Which strikes me as more than a little odd.
Continue reading “Some More Ground Operations Tea Leaves”Hot Off The Presses: The Latest in GOP Ground Game Studies
We have a nice addition to the emerging library of reporting on Republican ground operations from Ryan Cooper at The American Prospect. Cooper actually lives in one of the swingiest parts of Pennsylvania. So he’s not only a very sharp political reporter and commentator, he’s there on the ground as a recipient of the door-knocking and mailering and all the rest — both lab-coated scientist and guinea pig, as it were. So it’s a unique view. The gist matches what I’ve come up with. There just doesn’t seem to be much if any GOP ground operation in the sense of door knocking, dropping off pamphlets or much of anything else. There’s a slew of mailers. And there you’ve got the other issue I’ve been obsessed by: Cooper is a left-leaning Democrat who I’d assume has seldom or ever voted for a Republican. So why is his mailbox bursting with GOP mailers?
Continue reading “Hot Off The Presses: The Latest in GOP Ground Game Studies”Listen To This: The Anatomy Of An October Surprise
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh debate whether we’re living in a post-October surprise world, discuss Trump’s former generals using the F-word, and investigate an interestingly timed E. coli outbreak.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
Kamala Harris Plans To Close With A Strong Anti-Fascism Message
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
A Closing Message You Can Believe In
Vice President Kamala Harris appears set to close her presidential campaign with a rousing defense of American democracy and a withering indictment of Donald Trump’s fascistic inclinations.
A series of developments Wednesday portend a final 10-day stretch until Election Day in which Harris more directly and powerfully confronts the Trumpian threat than she has to this point:
- In a move heavy with symbolism, Harris plans to hold a rally next Tuesday on The Ellipse in which she will make her closing argument to the American people writ large, before presumably spending the last week of the campaign barnstorming swing states. Taking her campaign to the site of the instigation of the Jan. 6 insurrection is a potent reminder of the stakes of this election and a bold, confrontational, affirmative stroke: reclaiming public ground on the National Mall that was soiled by Trump’s infamous “Stop the Steal” rally. Contrast that with Trump’s planned Madison Square Garden closing event.
- In brief midday remarks from the vice president’s residence at the Naval Observatory in DC, Harris directly addressed the new public remarks by former Trump White House Chief of Staff John Kelly calling Trump a fascist. “We know what Donald Trump wants,” Harris said. “He wants unchecked power. The question in 13 days will be, ‘What do the American people want?’”
- Asked Wednesday night on a CNN town hall if she believes that Donald Trump is a fascist, Harris didn’t miss a beat in responding unequivocally: “Yes, I do.” But she was also quick to say don’t take my word for it, just listen to those who have worked for and most closely with Trump. Later in the town hall, she said voters “care about our democracy and not having a president of the United States who admires dictators and is a fascist.”
I don’t know if it’s the winning message, but it’s the right message. It’s hard to imagine waking up the day after Donald Trump wins and wishing you’d spent more time talking about inflation and economic anxiety.
At least we’re going to have a plain choice right in front of us and there can be no doubt what a Kamala Harris win would mean: a rejection of fascism.
Quote Of The Day
Chris Geidner: “[T]his election isn’t about alliances in the way that we normally think about them in politics. This isn’t about who you want in your boat. It’s about if you want the boat to stay afloat.”
‘Sleepwalking Toward a Crisis’
Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt on Donald Trump and the response from America’s elite to the threat he poses:
We have been studying democratic crisis and authoritarianism for 30 years. Between the two of us, we have written five books on those subjects. We can think of few major national candidates for office in any democracy since World War II who have been this openly authoritarian….
The U.S. establishment is sleepwalking toward a crisis. An openly antidemocratic figure stands at least a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency. The Supreme Court and the Republican Party have abdicated their gatekeeping responsibilities, and too many of America’s most influential political, business and religious leaders remain on the sidelines. Unable to rise above fear or narrow ambition, they hedge their bets. But time is running out.
WTF?
The U.S. Naval Academy’s history department invited NYU historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat to give a guest lecture this month about what happens to militaries under authoritarian rule, then the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing figures launched a pressure campaign and the academy disinvited her.
‘In Dangerous Times, Honest People Need To Stand Up’
The LA Times editorials editor has resigned in protest after the newspaper’s owner – South African-born billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong – blocked the editorial board’s planned endorsement of Kamala Harris for president.
Election Threats Watch
- WaPo: “A former deputy Palm Beach County sheriff who fled to Moscow and became one of the Kremlin’s most prolific propagandists is working directly with Russian military intelligence to pump out deepfakes and circulate misinformation that targets Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, according to Russian documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post.”
- CNN: “Georgia’s secretary of state’s office this month fended off a cyberattack believed to have come from a foreign country against the website voters use to request absentee ballots, the office told CNN.”
- AP: “An Arizona prosecutor said the man arrested in the shooting of a Democratic National Committee office in suburban Phoenix had more than 120 guns and over 250,000 rounds of ammunition in his home, leading law enforcement to believe he may have been planning a mass casualty event.”
Is This All For Show?
Out: Project 2025
In: America First Policy Institute
Sell The Steal
CNN: How Michael Flynn built a business and MAGA following out of election denialism
2024 Ephemera
- Justice Department warns Elon Musk that his $1 million giveaway to registered voters may be illegal.
- Former longtime GOP Rep. Fred Upton (MI) has endorsed Kamala Harris.
- WaPo: A GOP operative accused a monastery of voter fraud. Nuns fought back.
What The Fascism Looks Like
Hitler apologias, yearning for daddy, and other snippets from Trump defenders in just the past day:
- “German generals who were Nazis or whatever” …
Fox host Brian Kilmeade justifies Trump wanting German generals
— Lis Power (@LisPower1) October 23, 2024
Kilmeade: I can absolutely see him go it'd be great to have German generals that actually do what we ask them to do, maybe not fully being cognizant of the third rail of German generals who were Nazis or whatever pic.twitter.com/6lpjH6foEk
- “You’ve been a bad little girl” …
Tucker Carlson, campaigning for Trump: “There has to be a point at which dad comes home…Dad comes home, and he's pissed…You know what he says? ‘You've been a bad little girl, and you're getting a vigorous spanking right now.’” pic.twitter.com/HGx9jXp3em
— Republican Voters Against Trump (@AccountableGOP) October 23, 2024
- “Daddy’s home” …
After Tucker Carlson likened Trump to "daddy" tonight, and said a reelected Trump would need to give the media and Democrats a "spanking," the rally crowd "went wild," @alaynatreene reports. Later, when Trump came on stage, the crowd screamed "Daddy's home" and "Daddy Don" pic.twitter.com/c11wtHoGV6
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) October 24, 2024
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Trump Says He’ll Move Thousands of Federal Workers Out of Washington. Here’s What Happened the First Time He Tried.
This article first appeared at ProPublica and High Country News. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.
In 2019, the administration of then-President Donald Trump announced plans to relocate the federal government’s largest land management agency from the nation’s capital to Grand Junction, Colorado, a city of about 65,000 people a four-hour drive from the nearest major airport.
Trump had campaigned on a vow to “drain the swamp” and throughout his time in office voiced suspicions about the federal bureaucracy. Moving the Bureau of Land Management’s headquarters out of Washington, which officially happened in August 2020, was a step toward fulfilling that promise.
The bureau, known as the BLM, manages mining, hunting, recreation, timber harvesting, oil drilling and more across an area more than 50 times larger than New Jersey, nearly all of it in the West. Though most of the agency’s staffers were already in the West, the administration argued that the bureaucrats in the agency’s headquarters should also be closer to the land they oversee.
A total of 176 employees working in the BLM headquarters were told to move; 135 declined, with many leaving the agency to take positions elsewhere in the federal bureaucracy, according to the Government Accountability Office, an independent federal research agency. The office’s research also found that disruptions caused by the relocation delayed the BLM finalizing policies governing the use of federal public lands.
Looking to undo the previous administration’s “upheaval,” President Joe Biden’s administration quickly moved the headquarters back to Washington and proposed increasing the agency’s funding. The BLM’s fiscal year 2024 budget represented a more than 30% increase from fiscal year 2021, the last year the Trump administration prepared the budget request.
But if Trump wins in November, he has signaled he’ll pick up where he left off with the BLM as part of a broader strategy to shrink the federal government and create a bureaucracy more beholden to him.
The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, the 900-plus page blueprint for a potential second Trump term, recommends sending the BLM headquarters back to Colorado and relocating other agencies, ranging from the Environmental Protection Agency’s regional offices to the Air Traffic Organization and the American Indian Environmental Office.
Trump has publicly distanced himself from Project 2025, and a senior campaign adviser told ProPublica in a statement that the document does not set policy for a potential second term. During the presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump said of the document: “I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposely. I’m not going to read it. This was a group of people that got together, they came up with some ideas. I guess some good, some bad.”
But scores of people who worked in the Trump administration helped draft Project 2025. They include William Perry Pendley, his former pick to helm the BLM. Pendley oversaw the headquarters relocation to Grand Junction and authored the Project 2025 chapter on the Department of the Interior, which includes the recommendation to move the BLM’s headquarters back to the West.
Separate from Project 2025, Trump has doubled down on his plan to take aim at the federal bureaucracy as part of Agenda47, his campaign’s outline for a second term. “Just as I moved the Bureau of Land Management to Colorado,” he said in March 2023, “as many as 100,000 government positions can be moved out, and I mean immediately, of Washington to places filled with patriots who love America, and they really do love America.”
BLM employees who watched the relocation told ProPublica that the 2020 move out of Washington felt like naked politicking and the latest swing of the pendulum between administrations that has pointed the agency in wildly different directions. Rather than move, many in leadership left the agency. Those who remained were scattered, making collaboration with other divisions of the federal government more difficult and disrupting the continuity of internal programs.
“They ran the career people out,” said Steve Ellis, who spent nearly 40 years working for the federal government, rising to the level of BLM’s deputy director during the Obama administration. “This business about politicizing the civil service, that’s a problem. It’s something that should concern all Americans.”
Mick Mulvaney, then Trump’s acting chief of staff, insinuated during a 2019 speech that downsizing was the intent of the move, calling the relocation of agency offices “a wonderful way to streamline government.”
Employees in other bureaus and departments worry that what happened at the BLM will come to them in a second Trump administration.
Project 2025 advocates reinstituting the so-called Schedule F classification for federal employees that Trump created via a 2020 executive order to remove job protections and make such workers easier to fire. As part of Project 2025, backers created a database of potential replacement hires who share Trump’s mission.
Jeremy Symons, a former climate policy adviser with the EPA, is concerned that such changes would undermine his ex-employer’s ability to protect the environment and public health, in part by relocating or entirely dissolving government offices.
“What they plan on doing this time around was learned from that BLM experience,” he said.
“The Reorganization Will Functionally Dismantle the BLM”
Months before the Trump administration moved the BLM’s headquarters to Grand Junction, James Caswell, the agency’s director during President George W. Bush’s administration, warned Congress that “the reorganization will functionally dismantle the BLM.” It would remove the agency from having a voice in major decisions made in the capital, he said, and “effectively take the BLM off the playing field.”
Indeed, an exodus followed from the roughly 500-person headquarters, with numerous employees taking jobs elsewhere in the federal government to avoid leaving the Washington area, where they had put down roots. Vacancies in the office jumped to 326 from 121, according to the GAO.
The administration imposed hiring restrictions, including a freeze on filling certain senior positions to gauge whether they were necessary. “All of the BLM staff we interviewed told us about challenges in completing their duties because of headquarters vacancies after 2016,” the GAO report found. Vacancies matter because the BLM oversees an estimated 30% of all the mineral value in the country.
Pendley, the man selected to oversee the agency at the time of its relocation, is a self-avowed “sagebrush rebel,” part of the anti-federal government movement that wants public lands handed to states or sold off. (While functioning as the agency head, Pendley only officially held the title of deputy director for policy and programs and was never confirmed by the Senate. A court eventually ordered him to step aside, finding he had served unlawfully for more than a year.)
Pendley argued in Project 2025 that the BLM’s relocation was necessary and still is because a vast majority of the bureau’s staff and its jurisdiction remain in the West.
In an interview with ProPublica, Pendley said, “It makes much more sense to have the top people who are managing those lands and managing those people closer to the lands and the people themselves.”
He called the move a success, pointing to the COVID-19 pandemic as the reason the Grand Junction office building — where the agency leased space and which also hosted oil and gas companies — was never fully used. He argued that the point was not to drive away career employees.
In a potential second Trump administration, he said, there would be a “clear carve-out that things that are budget-related remain in Washington, things that are Capitol Hill-related remain in Washington.”
But the bureau is already decentralized, according to former BLM leadership, with the headquarters — what staff refer to as the Washington Office — located there to collaborate with the rest of the federal government.
“Part of the goal” of relocating the BLM’s headquarters “is for it to be disruptive,” said Mary Jo Rugwell, who was the BLM’s Wyoming state director until her 2019 retirement and now serves as president of the Public Lands Foundation, a nonprofit made up mainly of retired BLM employees. “We’ve got to stop this back-and-forth thing. It’s just not good for an organization. It’s not a healthy way to operate.”
Giving even more power to political appointees to fire career staff is a frightening proposition to Rugwell. “Putting people in place because of their loyalty to a person puts people in place that are not qualified to do the job,” she said.
“Less Effective and Less Efficient”
Project 2025 not only calls for the relocation of agencies’ offices but also goes further in promoting an industry wish list for lighter regulations. In some cases, the leaders of trade groups or industry advocates wrote chapters proposing how to redirect agencies regulating their member companies.
Among their environmental proposals: delist key species from protections under the Endangered Species Act; vacate Biden’s goal of conserving 30% of the country’s land and water by 2030; walk back protections for large swaths of the West in order to offer lease sales to the oil industry; and dismantle policies meant to combat climate change.
If such environmental and public health proposals move forward, “it would be a mistake to underestimate the scale of the demolition,” said Symons, the former EPA employee.
Under Trump, the EPA shrank to its smallest size in decades.
Symons now works with the Environmental Protection Network, a nonprofit composed of former EPA staff, and believes the Biden administration has begun turning around the agency. He co-authored a recent report that estimated rules the agency wrote on topics such as air pollution since Biden took office will save more than 200,000 lives through 2050.
Project 2025 proposes disbanding multiple offices within the agency, halting millions of dollars of grant funding for universities that “produce radical environmental research” and pausing Biden-era rules.
“The EPA needs to be realigned away from attempts to make it an all-powerful energy and land use policymaker and returned to its congressionally sanctioned role as environmental regulator,” Project 2025’s authors wrote.
“By putting polluters in control over our air and water instead of EPA scientists,” Symons said, “Project 2025 would put the lives of millions of Americans needlessly at risk from asthma attacks, cancer, lung disease and heart disease.”
In Project 2025, Pendley also focused on the obscure agency tasked with regulating coal mining: the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement. He proposes moving its headquarters from Washington to Pittsburgh to be “in the coal field.”
The number of coal mine inspectors should be cut, Pendley wrote, pointing to the industry’s falling production. “The people that I talked to thought there were enough people out there to do the job,” Pendley told ProPublica.
Former agency staff questioned his logic. Moving the headquarters would only serve to make the agency “less effective and less efficient,” argued Joe Pizarchik, the agency’s longest-tenured director, who served until the day Trump was inaugurated.
The largest coal-producing state by far is Wyoming, not Pennsylvania, and historical coal mines in need of cleanup are scattered across Appalachia. As with the BLM, the employees who need to physically be in mines are already stationed in coal country, from offices in Charleston, West Virginia, to Casper, Wyoming. Headquarters staff, meanwhile, need to be in the capital to work alongside Interior Department leadership, Pizarchik said.
As for the agency’s inspectors, many mines that no longer produce have yet to be cleaned up, so the number of permits that the agency oversees has not fallen significantly, Pizarchik explained. Meanwhile, the number of coal mine inspections across the country, a 2018 study found, had already fallen more than 20% over the preceding decade.
“Frankly, it’s asinine,” Pizarchik said of Project 2025’s call to cut inspectors because of decreased production. “That statement is either made out of ignorance of the facts, or it is trying to mislead people.”
Mariam Elba contributed research.
Raskin Sends Trump And Vance A Warning
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, sent a letter to Donald Trump and his running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) warning that their much-hinted-at plan to flout transition rules could end up endangering national security.
Continue reading “Raskin Sends Trump And Vance A Warning”Harris Boosts John Kelly’s Dire Warnings: Trump Wants ‘Unchecked Power’
Vice President Kamala Harris said on Wednesday it is “deeply troubling and incredibly dangerous” that former President Donald Trump invoked Adolf Hitler while he was president, reportedly saying at one point that he wanted generals like the ones Hitler had.
Continue reading “Harris Boosts John Kelly’s Dire Warnings: Trump Wants ‘Unchecked Power’”Let’s Talk About What the Early Vote is (Or Isn’t) Telling Us
Like many people, I’ve been watching the early vote closely to see if I can glean anything predictive about what we’ve seen so far. On balance I’ve seen very little that gives any real indication either way. I want to stress that point because I think it’s the most important point in this entire post: I’ve seen little if anything that gives any real or clear indication who the winner of the election is going to be.
Continue reading “Let’s Talk About What the Early Vote is (Or Isn’t) Telling Us”Uncertainty About MAGA Election Board’s Attempts To Delay Certification In Georgia Is Finally Over
After the Georgia Supreme Court rejected an RNC-backed appeal of a recent Fulton County judge ruling that struck down several unsettling new election rules, the MAGA-dominated state election board’s months-long attempts to delay election certification have finally been defeated. Although the court could at some point in the future rule in favor of these Republicans, the board will not have the power to delay election results this November.
Continue reading “Uncertainty About MAGA Election Board’s Attempts To Delay Certification In Georgia Is Finally Over”