US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick smiles as US President Donald Trump speaks before signing a proclamation in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on June 11, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP ... US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick smiles as US President Donald Trump speaks before signing a proclamation in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on June 11, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP via Getty Images) MORE LESS

As a general matter, people who write about or strategize about politics greatly overestimate our collective ability to shape how an election will play out, the extent to which clever ideas can pivot the course of an election in any new direction. We’re more small sailboats on a big ocean than some kind of latter-day Neptune actually changing the waves or the wind. But, all that said, Trump may have handed a unique card for Democrats to play against Republican candidates, especially those bordering Canada, which include key states like Michigan, Alaska, and Maine, as well as states with strong trade dependencies like Iowa and Ohio. This part requires little explanation. Heading into an ugly midterm cycle with one damaging and needless war underway, it boggles the mind that he thinks it’s a good idea to start a trade war with America’s second-largest trading partner. Trade wars raise prices; and the cost of living is the largest single issue in the election.

But there’s an additional dimension to the politics.

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