I have a lengthy post which will be up momentarily about the role of the two predominantly Arab parties in the Israeli election: Ra’am and the Joint List. For now, the best way to see this is that Netanyahu lost but it’s not clear that the change bloc or anyone else won. I doubt there’s any way for Netanyahu to form a government – too many implacable foes in the change camp. Depending on how close the actual results are to these early exits there’s a chance Eizenkot could form one. But it’s tough. I think the most likely result is a new election. But relatively small shifts in the final result versus the initial exit polls could make a big difference.

In our final episode of The Polltober Show, Kate and Josh talk Democratic ceiling, a potential polling error in Democrats’ favor and the wins they’d be most jazzed about.

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As I noted in the previous post, we now have the initial exit polls from today’s election which show the “change” bloc bigger than the Netanyahu bloc but likely only by two or three seats. You have 17 or 18 seats for the two predominantly Arab parties, a historic high, based on historically high turnout today among Israel’s Arab/Palestinian citizens. Voting is only stage one of an Israeli election. Now you have to see who if anyone can form a government. It’s not at all clear that anyone will be able to. But with this mixed result you now begin a public battle over the meaning of the results. The opposition is out quickly with a pretty strong argument. The current government has gone from 68 years to apparently 50. That’s a very big drop and as they put it a massive repudiation.

It’s hard to argue with that.

On the other hand, the “change” bloc seems to have 52 or 53 seats. Again, according to the initial exit polls. So they “won” in some sense but judged in these terms it’s not like they crushed the Netanyahu bloc.

Israel polls are now closed and we have the first initial exit polls. Note that those exit polls are not necessarily correct, just like in the US. They project the anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead but with Likud (Netanyahu’s party) the largest single party. (That can matter for who gets first shot at forming a government; but the decision is solely that of the President.) Critically, neither side has a clear path to a 61 seat majority.

The specifics are 53 seats for the change bloc; 50 seats for the Netanyahu bloc; 17 seats for the two predominantly Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am).

Note there are several different exit polls out from different TV channels. The exact numbers differ. But as far as I can tell they all agree on change bloc bigger, Likud single largest party. 17 or 18 seats for the two Arab parties, a historic high.

In other words, this is more or less what polls have projected: an inconclusive result that makes it very unclear how either bloc can form a government. If neither can it means another election in the relatively near future.

Again, though, final results can differ significantly from initial exit polls.

We’re coming up on the end of today’s voting in Israel. Historic high turnout is the story of the day. And I would say we still know basically nothing about the outcome. I’ve mentioned a couple times that prediction markets are really only good as distillations of conventional wisdom. But sometimes conventional wisdom can be good to know. On Kalshi today, we’ve seen a new possible prime minister rocketing from nowhere to a 39% probability of winning. And the new guy is “no one.”

A few points on this. I’m a little surprised that “no one” wasn’t ranked higher before because while “no one” has maybe not been the most likely outcome there have been very good chances of his winning for weeks or months. Also remember that in case “no one” wins and no government can be formed, that actually means Netanyahu remains Prime Minister in a caretaker capacity while a new election is scheduled.

Watching Israel Twitter there are various anti-Netanyahu politicians doing emergency messages, saying we’re behind, rush to the polls, etc. But this is what you say to get people out. And other signals point to equal amounts of desperation on both sides trying to get every last voter to the polls.

Two other points to pay attention to.

We’re most of the way through election day in Israel. The only thing we can say with certainty is that in the morning, voter turnout was the highest it had been since 1973. And now, coming into dinner time, it is the highest in all Israeli history. But we can’t really read anything clear into this: this is a high-stakes election for all the players. While I’d like to think it’s driven by a rejection of Netanyahu (and it could be), there’s no reason to think — based on this data point — that high turnout favors one side over another. As I noted earlier, the bulk of evidence suggests that Netanyahu’s bloc will come in “behind.” But that’s not really what matters. The question is whether the opposition bloc, if it gets more seats, can find a way to cobble together a coalition. That remains very uncertain. If no government can be formed, Netanyahu remains caretaker PM while another election is called.

So here we are. One week out. Are you ready? Drop me a line at our comments email address – talk (at) talkingpointsmemo dot com and let me know what you’re thinking.

DOJ to send election monitors to six Democratic counties in Georgia.

The U.S. Department of Justice has notified several Georgia counties it intends to station monitors there on Election Day.

Bibb, Cobb, Chatham, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties have received notifications from the Justice Department. Each of those counties has produced solid wins for Democrats in recent elections.

The Justice Department routinely sends election monitors to polling locations to ensure compliance with laws and that voters’ rights are protected. But given the Trump administration’s actions to assert more federal control over elections and investigate the president’s 2020 election grievances, the notices have raised concerns among Democrats and some election officials about what the monitors might try to do in November.

Every campaign season, especially ones as intense as this one, will churn up stories that aren’t so much about lying or scandal or low-rent tactics as they are simply some mix of desperate, weird and hilarious. The one I’m about to share manages to be all of those but mainly just hilarious and weird. Let’s go to Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district, where longtime Freedom Caucuser and election denier Rep. Scott Perry (R) appears to be in the race of his life. Members of the Freedom Caucus, as you’d expect, are usually from very, very red districts where you can indulge the Freedom Caucus lifestyle with few electoral repercussions. But that’s never really been the case with Perry. Cook Report says it’s an R+3 district and Perry beat Janelle Stelson, a former local news broadcaster, by only 5,000 votes in 2024, hardly a strong Democratic year.

Stelson is challenging Perry again this year and now most polls show him running behind.

So he has a new campaign attack: Stelson walks around naked!

Earlier this month I wrote a piece entitled Friends Don’t Let Friends Watch the Early Vote. I wanted to re-up that recommendation, notwithstanding the fact that I have kept an eye on these findings, as I always do. The simple fact is that all of these efforts amount to figuring out how big a share of the pie you have before you know how big the pie is. That doesn’t mean you can’t glean anything by analyzing these things or that the knowledgable people doing it are silly or mendacious. They’re not. It’s just that you can’t draw any firm conclusions from it and our desire to see what we want in these entrails greatly outweighs the hints we can get from them. As I noted before, this is especially the case because the partisan dynamics of who votes early, in person, by mail, on Election Day, etc., is in so much flux.