The Other Election

We’re most of the way through election day in Israel. The only thing we can say with certainty is that in the morning, voter turnout was the highest it had been since 1973. And now, coming into dinner time, it is the highest in all Israeli history. But we can’t really read anything clear into this: this is a high-stakes election for all the players. While I’d like to think it’s driven by a rejection of Netanyahu (and it could be), there’s no reason to think — based on this data point — that high turnout favors one side over another. As I noted earlier, the bulk of evidence suggests that Netanyahu’s bloc will come in “behind.” But that’s not really what matters. The question is whether the opposition bloc, if it gets more seats, can find a way to cobble together a coalition. That remains very uncertain. If no government can be formed, Netanyahu remains caretaker PM while another election is called.