Israel Election Update

I have a lengthy post which will be up momentarily about the role of the two predominantly Arab parties in the Israeli election: Ra’am and the Joint List. For now, the best way to see this is that Netanyahu lost but it’s not clear that the change bloc or anyone else won. I doubt there’s any way for Netanyahu to form a government – too many implacable foes in the change camp. Depending on how close the actual results are to these early exits there’s a chance Eizenkot could form one. But it’s tough. I think the most likely result is a new election. But relatively small shifts in the final result versus the initial exit polls could make a big difference.