Two important new polls have come out this afternoon. They’re clarifying on a number of grounds. The first is that President Trump’s rise in the polls is at best overstated. Quinnipiac puts him at 43% approval, on the high side for that poll but the same as their previous three polls back into December. Monmouth has him at 44%. Their previous three polls had him at 43%. Just moments ago Yougov released a new batch of polls which put Trump at 41%, basically where he’s been since forever. (I put more stock in Quinnipiac and Monmouth but it’s another important data point.) Take this all together and they suggest Trump is in a relatively strong position based on where he’s been over the last three years. But there’s little evidence here of some game-changing move. Certainly nothing like the 49% Gallup found last week, which remains a distant outlier.
From TPM Reader EC …
An ex Bernie supporters perspective.
A little background:I lived in Vermont for over 25 years.
My wife is a Vermonter and my 2 kids where born there.
I love and miss Vermont (not the weather).I would imagine I have voted for Bernie more than almost anyone not living in Vermont including for Mayor, 8 Congressional races and once for Senate.
I made calls, knocked on doors and catered fundraisers, most memorably an event at Ben Cohen’s house for Bernie & Max Cleland. I think during the 2002 cycle.
Win or lose I’m very concerned about Bernie.
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From TPM Reader JB …
With all due respect to Reader EW, all I can say is “Really?”
I don’t know what country he/she is in, but this well-described set of policy preferences put into perspective of other nations and their leaders is never going to come up in an American Presidential election. These kinds of conversations happen amongst those who are interested in politics, read a lot, and have enough gumption to go deep. That is not the American public.
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Vermonter and TPM Reader EW begs to disagree
I think the coverage of Bernie is not just unfair, but dead wrong. I don’t just mean Bret Stephens who is lying when he compares Bernie’s socialism to the Soviet Union. The model has always been, for Bernie, the Nordics and next door neighbor Canada and others. His proposals actually put him to the right of government policies in those countries and others including New Zealand, the Netherlands and others. He is not more left wing than the leaders of most European Social Democratic parties. Even parties to the right of Social Democrats support universal health care systems state controlled or managed.
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TPM Reader RS is an anti-Sanders voter …
Thanks as always for the series of reader reaction posts this evening – they, together with your “Is There a Path to Post-Primary Unity?” post from a few days ago have been helping me think through the situation.
To put my cards on the table, I’m definitely an anti-Sanders voter. I’ll absolutely vote for and support the Democratic nominee in the general, whoever that ends up being — although my vote is itself irrelevant here in NYC — but there’s almost no serious Democratic candidate this cycle who I’d less like to end up winning the nomination. (I’d rank Gabbard, Steyer, Yang, and Williamson below him, but I’m not sure any of those were actually “serious” even though they debate-qualified; I’m genuinely torn over Bloomberg for other reasons.)
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TPM Reader RD responds to TPM Reader MRK …
I just read “Thoughts Before Canvassing” from MRK, and thought I’d respond. I like Elizabeth Warren a lot. She’s my home state senator, and I’ve donated to both her senatorial campaign before I even lived in Mass, and to her 2020 presidential campaign. I think she’s the smartest person in the race, but I have concluded that she’s not best positions to succeed in the general. Here’s why:
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As were discuss or lament the stranglehold which Iowa and New Hampshire have over the Democratic nominating process, I wanted to share a few suggestions which seem worth considering. Any state getting a permanent or outsized role seems like a mistake. So looking for the perfect, most representative state seems like a fool’s errand.
Over the weekend, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made a rather sinister admission on live television, casually alluding that the dirt-digging campaign on the Biden family is far from over.
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TPM Reader JS makes his case for New Hampshire …
My name is John Shappy and I live in Milford, NH. This morning I got up and had to run some errands around the Nashua, NH area. On my way I passed by a house that was hosting a house party for Amy Klobuchar. A few minutes down the road in Nashua I came upon Bill Weld and his travel vehicle. On any day leading up to and including the week before the primary If you want access to a Presidential candidate they are anywhere in the state. I have been a labor organizer and have met most of the candidates that I have had an interest in voting for. I have this access because I live in a state that holds the first primary.
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