Josh Marshall
Donald’s Fallen Down. So Why Can’t He Get Up? 
Given that there’s been a lot of encouraging news about the Harris campaign, there’s an understandable and salutary resistance to any commentary that looks like counting chickens before they are hatched. We have more than two months to go before Election Day. A lot can happen. But there’s something going on with Donald Trump.
In the first week or two after Harris’ campaign launched, it was perhaps understandable that his campaign had a hard time knowing how to respond. Not entirely understandable, of course. His campaign hoodwinked the Times into running a whole story about how it was locked and loaded with ads, oppo and messaging, ready to annihilate Harris and her campaign on the launch pad the moment Biden stepped aside. But when it happened the very next day, they were caught flatfooted. That was odd since the possibility of Biden stepping aside had been very real for six weeks. Still, it’s hard to prepare for something of such magnitude.
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How Kamala Made Trump the Incumbent
This morning on Twitter, Tim Murtaugh, a former Trump campaign spokesman, concluded a tweet attacking Harris by writing: “Her whole vacant message sounds like it’s from a party that’s out of power. But they’re her messes.” Through the spittle and frustration you can see him making a point which quite understandably has Trump’s campaign angry and bewildered. Harris has made Trump into the incumbent with her as the challenger running on a campaign message to turn the page. Whether this is fair or true or any number of other descriptors you might come up with, there’s little doubt that it is an accurate description of the campaign we are in the midst of. The Trump campaign itself is telling us this, almost in spite of itself. And it’s worth taking a moment to consider how exactly this manages to be the case. Since Harris is not only a member of the incumbent party. She’s literally the incumbent Vice President.
I can’t explain it entirely myself because I haven’t been able to completely understand it. But I can point to several key parts of the puzzle.
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Thoughts on the Final Night
First, on the speech … rock solid. I doubt her advisors and press people thought it could have gone much better. At the beginning I thought it might be understated somehow. Not bad at all, but understated, a bit quieter than we expect from these speeches. But as it progressed I realized she was developing an emotional audience, in person and on television. This came through later in the speech when she ranged from intense to boisterous to categorical. It worked with a mixture of intensity and authenticity. There’s no point in my doing more interpreting of the speech. It hit every point and hit every one well. The most telling comments were those from Republican commentators who couldn’t find their way around saying that it was a strong speech before, of course, reassuring listeners that Harris is obviously terrible and they agree with her about nothing.
Some other points are less obvious.
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Let’s Discuss Honeymoonism
We’ve spoken a few times about the ongoing discussion of when Kamala Harris’s “honeymoon” is going to come to an end. We had a lot of press conversation about how it had to end a week after she got into the race. There’s been a growing media hunger for it to end. I was prompted to write this post because of a piece I saw in New York Magazine headlined, “How Long can ‘Brat Summer’ Last? The vibes are good, but at some point, Kamala Harris has to leave her bubble.”
I need to be really clear about what I mean here. On the podcast, Kate and I keep saying that there are going to be reverses in this campaign, to be prepped for them, not to lose heart at the first ugly attack that lands or the first bad poll. I’ve said similar things in various posts. So when I talk about “honeymoonism,” I don’t mean to suggest that I think we’re in a straight-line progression from now until Election Day. Just as we should never lose heart in the bleakest moments, we should always be mindful to invest positive energy in future resilience. But through these discussions of Harris’ “honeymoon” and when it has to end or when she has to come out of the “honeymoon” bubble, we can see an assumption or claim that is a bit different. It’s that somehow what’s happened during the first month of Harris’ campaign isn’t quite real, that it’s a sugar high, if you will, a burst of excitement that can’t last.
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Let’s Not Sweat the Bobby Jr. Thing
Let me expand a bit on the RFK Jr. discussion from yesterday. It’s now clear that Kennedy will drop out tomorrow and that he will endorse Trump. I mean, clear as anything with two confirmed weirdos can be. But that’s what all the big publications are reporting, so we’ll assume that’s the case. I went through the numbers again and looked closely at what those most immersed in them think. If we look strictly at the numbers, the odds are likely that Trump gains some modest benefit. But it’s very modest. Elliott Morris, new top guy at 538, has become one of my go-tos on these things. He looked at their data which says that Kennedy dropping out of the race loses Harris two-tenths of a percentage point on her current lead. That’s not nothing in a race we all know will be very close. But it’s not far from nothing.
Read MoreMy only take tonight is that I feel confident that Kamala Harris made the right decision picking Tim Walz. Walz is good in his own right. But he complements Harris, tonally, culturally. This was the right call.
If you haven’t seen, just in the last hour or so there are indications that RFK Jr is planning to drop out of the race and endorse Donald Trump. Kennedy’s campaign has put out word that he’ll be giving a speech about the “path forward” in Phoenix. And people are noting that Trump is supposed to be in Phoenix Friday too. The reporting suggests that the Kennedy people are signaling something like an endorsement. But who knows. That’s what it looks like to me. But we will know Friday, if not sooner.
A few points on this. The first one is that there’s some evidence that Kennedy is now hurting Trump more than Harris. Obviously Trump thinks so or he wouldn’t be trying to get Kennedy to drop out. Polls suggest that the balance changed after Harris got into the race. The more Dem-adjacent supporters basically went to Harris. So in this still very tight race, this could hurt Harris in the horse race numbers.
Read MoreWell, there it is. We just flew past our goal of raising $500,000 in this year’s annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. We’re currently at $503,822. I want to say just a big, big thank you. We started this year’s drive with a relative confidence we could hit this mark. But you simply never know. Each year people’s moods are different. The economy is different. And these are just very big numbers. Each new time is really like a trust fall all over again. I personally want to thank the whole TPM team whose collective work this result is based on. The site promos will stay up a bit longer. And of course you are very welcome to continue contribute. Every extra dollar will be put to very good use. But this was our critical goal. So this will be my last post pitching you on this year’s drive.
Truly, we thank you. I thank you. We couldn’t be happier and prouder.
We are down to under $35,000 $31,000 $12,000 $10,000 before we hit $500,000. We’re in the final countdown. I’m trying to balance my and our excitement that we’re going to hit the goal with whatever encouragement I can give you to help us get past the finish line. But I’ll just say we’re so pumped and also … well, this is a great time to contribute! Just click here.