Opinions, Context & Ideas from the TPM Editors TPM Editor's Blog

Watch the Senators

All signs point to the House GOP falling quickly into line with Donald Trump. Indeed, it's not clear to me that #NeverTrump even really exists anymore outside of a thin membrane of conservative writers and intellectuals who may be acting admirably but have little real electoral pull. But remember, the House is heavily gerrymandered. It may be plausible that a total blowout at the top of the ticket could lose Republicans the House. But it's not likely. For a number of reasons, House Republicans have a lot of ways to bundle up to withstand a Trump electoral storm, if indeed it turns out to be a storm.

The Senate is an altogether different matter.

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Ryan and Trump Meet in Historic Summit

So today is the big day: Donald Trump meets Paul Ryan and Republican Senators who are afraid to endorse him. From a historical viewpoint it occurred to me that Ryan's encounter with Trump is all vaguely reminiscent of when the caretaker head of state who the Shah left behind had to hang with the Ayatollah Khomeini when he returned in February 1979. A great moment in history. In any case, the first meeting seems to have gone reasonably well. Trump and Ryan just released a joint statement which essentially says that their differences are outweighed by their common views and the need to defeat the evil Hillary Clinton.

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That Too

The latest right wing freak out about Facebook is reverberating in some interesting places: in a sports radio conversation about UFC and eSports. As Colin Cowherd puts it, maybe conservatives should have created Facebook or Silicon Valley or any of the other dynamic new parts of the economy which have such a dominant sway over the culture.

Of course, it doesn't really seem like Facebook was 'suppressing' conservative views at all. So there's that too.

Great Public Moment

Because of the seriousness of the issue, I'm taking the rare step of posting to the Editor's Blog a twitter poll I just posted on my Twitter account.

Yep

To be clear, I don't buy that there's any real tightening in the race between Clinton and Trump. But TPM Reader BL still has a point ...

I agree that the shift in the polls, though it may not prove durable, should not be dismissed out of hand. Quite possibly, we are seeing the readiness of a large swathe of white Americans to vote for literally anybody. Under these conditions, the future course taken by Bernie Sanders becomes more important than ever. His supporters, in my view, have seriously damaged Clinton, not by supporting Sanders, but by flooding social media with claims that she is corrupt. By doing so, they have amplified her negatives. Nonetheless,Clinton is still virtually certain to become the nominee. If Sanders really supports her, she should win. If he withholds real support, he greatly increases the chances of a very close election and of a political catastrophe of unfathomable dimensions.

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Trump's Tax Returns

A few thoughts on Trump and his tax returns. He now says he'll never release them - November means never, in political terms. So what's the deal?

A few thoughts.t

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Is Donald Trump Making a Move in the Polls?

Yesterday Quinnipiac came out with batch of swing state polls showing Donald Trump near even or ahead in three key swing states - Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. In recent cycles, the Q poll has tended to be Republican friendly at least in part because it models the electorate with fewer college educated voters and fewer minority voters than other pollsters; indeed, fewer than the number who've shown up in recent presidential elections. But this morning Reuters/Ipsos released its latest weekly poll which shows Trump just 1 point behind Clinton at Clinton 41, Trump 40. The same poll showed Trump 9 points back just one week ago.

That's a big big move and from a poll that hasn't shown a clear GOP lean.

So what's up?

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Paul Ryan's Very Telling Silence

House Speaker Paul Ryan just took a small number of questions about Donald Trump and his efforts to genuinely unify the GOP for the November election. It was notable what he did and did not say.

The gist of Ryan's remarks is that there are different wings in the GOP, as there is in any national political coalition, and they need to unify around a common message while accepting existence of different wings, different policy positions, etc. Secondly, it's been a deeply bruising primary. Simply on an interpersonal level, it takes a while to absorb and get past that.

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