One must-read delivered daily to your inbox

A Poll Obsessive Gives You a Calm and Sober Read

 Member Newsletter
April 24, 2024 11:28 a.m.

I routinely tell people not to look at every single poll but to focus on trends over time. That is, if you want to look at them at all. We’ll go into Election Day with the polls tight and the outcome still uncertain. I can say this because I actually watch them very, very closely … like unhealthily closely. It’s characterological. I don’t advise it for anyone else. But if you must, it’s okay, and I can relate.

This morning there’s a new batch of swing-state polls from Bloomberg/Morning Consult showing Trump ahead in all but one of those states and growing his lead versus the last of these polls a month ago. That’s not great at all. But as usual I would not invest too much weight in a single poll. These numbers are not in sync with other recent swing-state polls, though actually we have pretty few quality swing-state polls recently. But the overall trend over the last six or seven weeks still seems like what we’ve discussed in the last several posts on this topic. After several months of being behind by a small but real amount (2-4 percentage points), Biden has moved into roughly a tie.

Want to keep reading?

Join TPM and get The Backchannel member newsletter along with unlimited access to all TPM articles and member features.

I'm already subscribed

Not yet a TPM Member?

I'm already subscribed

One must-read from Josh Marshall delivered weekly to your inbox

Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Your subscription has been successful.

One must-read from Josh Marshall delivered weekly to your inbox

Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: