I hadn't taken Obama's statement that a post-EU UK would have to go 'to the back of the line' for trade negotiations that seriously. I'd seen it as more a nudge to ward off any expectation that trade relations with the US would be instantly restored on some crash course negotiation. But the possibility of the break-up of the UK itself (which seems like a very real possibility to me over the 4 to 5 year time horizon) hadn't occurred to me as a drag on potential negotiations.
Overall, I liked your post about Brexit. I will have to say though that I'm doubtful the US will make a deal with the UK outside the EU a priority.Read More →