It's October 24 and the PollTracker Average stands at Clinton 50.2 percent, Trump 42 percent, an 8.2 percentage-point spread
The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 323, Trump 177. Evan McMullin is leading in Utah, worth six electoral votes. Alaska, Arizona, and Ohio are in the Toss Up category.
For months, more than a year actually, I've been writing about the hunger for dominance and revenge that drives Trump and the campaign and movement he's built in his image. Even in the face of looming defeat he's cultivated an atmosphere of menace, calling the country's voting system rigged and hinting he may defy an adverse verdict at the polls. And yet, coming off the final debate, even with continued talk about rigged elections and cherry-picked polls which duck the trend predicting a devastating defeat, we seem to be seeing something different: the emergence of bitter and dejected low-energy Trump.
It is only one poll, as they say. But this ABC poll may be a big deal. See this not as something that is happening but a sign of a possible trend which, if backed up by other polls over the next two weeks, could be the story of the 2016 election.
In response to my post last night about voting lines, I had a number of people write in saying they've never waited more than a few minutes to vote - often people in their 50s or 60s and older, so people who've voted in a lot of elections. And most of those people asked, how does that even happen? What's the root cause? Obviously in any given election, in any given precinct, you can have a random malfunction or screw up that leads to long lines. In theory, that can happen anywhere. But the cause of long lines in the vast majority of cases is really, really simple. Depending on where you vote, the number of voting machines and precinct workers per eligible voter can vary wildly. If one polling station has one polling machine per x eligible voters and another has one per 50x eligible voters, the outcome is pretty obvious. And there are numerous studies showing that precincts with a lot of poor and/or non-whites have on average many fewer voting machines, poll workers, etc. Some of this is by design; some of it is a recapitulation of the same structural dynamics that leave underprivileged communities under-resourced across the board. Same difference.
We're now seeing numerous examples across the country of extremely long lines and long waits to vote - especially in states which took steps since 2012 to make it harder to vote and vote early. North Carolina is one of the best examples of this. People are waiting three and four hours to vote. It's genuinely shameful that we, as a society, find this acceptable. And yet millions of people are lining up to vote. They are undeterred.
The TPM Senate Scoreboard currently stands at 49(D)-48(R) with three states in the toss-up category: North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada.
But I'm starting to get the sense that Democrats may significantly over-perform what has been a close fought, essentially tied race for control of the Senate. Here's why.