Not as Crazy as It Sounds

A member of the Republican National Committee, who will sit on the convention rules committee, made a bit of a stir today when he said that 1237 wasn't the magic number for Trump. It was probably more like 1100 delegates. He wasn't saying that 1100 guaranteed Trump the nomination but that if he has more than 1100 he'll be in a strong position to convince the remainder to come over and back him. A lot of people reacted like Randy Evans, the RNC committeeman, is crazy. But I'm not so sure. I won't say that Evans has any special insight into the matter, at least not more than any other high ranking Republican. But I think he's got a better handle on things than a lot of people who are chattering about this at the moment.

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I'm Voting for Bernie, but on One Condition

“He’s not going to get the nomination, is he?” my wife asks anxiously as she gazes out of the kitchen window at the Bernie for President sign on our front lawn. No, I assure her, and he certainly won’t win Maryland on April 26. I’m voting for Bernie, and my wife may, too, but we’re doing so on the condition that we don’t think he will get the nomination. If he were poised to win, I don’t know whether I’d vote for him, because I fear he would be enormously vulnerable in a general election, even against Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, and I’m also not sure whether he is really ready for the job of president.

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A Very, Very Blue State

Let me follow up on my post below about voting in New York State. I was just emailing with a reader about how blue New York is, how dominant Democrats are and thus how much the national parties care about voting rates in the state (i.e., not much).

We all know that New York is now a key part of the Democratic electoral bloc. But I remember back in 2012 and 2008 too having a realization of just how blue it is. Probably even bluer than you think.

Here's an example.

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Excellent News for John McCain!

McCain "at a loss" after Ryan bows out and wrestles with reality of a Trump or Cruz nomination.

Please Send Us the Latest Reports

As you can see from our feature story today, Trumpites aren't just after protesters now. There are widespread and credible reports of threats - sometimes escalating to the level of death threats - against anti-Trump Republicans and particularly potential or already chosen convention delegates. Not every threat is equally serious or equally well documented. But we want to hear about and share with readers all the legitimate reports that are out there, especially because many are going to pop up in local and regional news sources. So when you see examples in the news or perhaps when you've heard of stories that we might be able to confirm ourselves, please drop us a line via email. As always the link is immediately below the TPM logo at the upper right.

New York, We Suck

We've seen a lot of attention and schadenfreude directed at the fact that two of Trump's kids won't even be able to vote for him in the Republican primary. And it's not like they missed a deadline a week ago. It was months ago. But here's the thing. Our voting system here in New York sucks.

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Slouching Toward Cleveland

So, yes, anti-Trump Republicans, and especially would be delegates are getting death threats from angry Trumpites.

Convention? What Convention?

As I've mentioned or hinted a few times, I think the mix of the Garland stalemate and Donald Trump or Ted Cruz at the top of the critic will lead to big Republican losses in the Senate. Big is relative - but enough to push the chamber into the Democrats' hands in 2017. We're now seeing the first signs of vulnerable GOP senators saying they're going to be too busy to make it to Cleveland for the convention in July.

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Everything Gets Blown Up

Phyllis Schafly says she's being deposed as the head of her pet organization, The Eagle Forum, over her Trump endorsement.

African-Americans Key for Clinton in NYS

Hillary Clinton appears to have a consistent 10+ lead over Bernie Sanders in New York State. And as the write up in this new Quinnipiac poll (Clinton 53%, Sanders 40%) notes, African-Americans remain a critical constituency. Unsurprisingly, Sanders is winning with those who identify themselves as "very liberal" (though not by a huge margin) and young voters (the largest cleavage beside race). But African-Americans are supporting Clinton by a 65% to 28% margin, which is to say a massive margin.

Time to Reform Big Sanders?

Former TPMer Greg Sargent has an interesting post today about how the Sanders campaign could end and end well - specifically, by using his clout at the convention to reform the primary process. It's an intriguing suggestion and makes a lot of sense since the Democrats' system could use reforming even if it's not quite as messed up as the Republicans' one. But the problem is that the things most in need of reforming are the only things keeping Sanders in the race. That may sound like a provocation. But it's actually true!

Let me explain.

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That Ain't the Summit, Just One Hill

We're starting to see Donald Trump move into full "I'm being cheated" and "the system is rigged" mode as Cruz makes more progress on the 'dark delegate' front and perhaps makes progress in the polls too. Trump is starting to sound both literally and figuratively like a loser. But remember, for this to play out how the big party stakeholders want it to they've got to steal it from Trump AND Ted Cruz. Yes, both. That seems awful, awful hard to me.

Pathfinders: A Global History of Exploration

Years ago I used to do book reviews on TPM. I've wanted to bring that back for a long time, perhaps even expanding it into a more regular part of the site. As I've mentioned before, my personal reading centers almost entirely on history - never anything tied to politics and seldom even history that's not more than a century or two old. I spend a lot of time hunting around for good thick books of what you might call high-end popular history. So it's always immensely satisfying when I find something really good that I can sink my teeth into. Here's one of my recent finds: Pathfinders: A Global History of Exploration by Felipe Fernández-Armesto.

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Drifting Down a River in Egypt

The betting markets seem to be coming around to the realization that it is highly unlikely that anyone but Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the Republican nominee. Not that betting markets are anything but a brass tacks version of conventional wisdom. But the perception is correct. We seem to be in a period where Republican party stakeholders are taking an inordinate amount of glee in pointing out that as long as Donald Trump doesn't clearly win more than 50% of the pledged delegates they can really do anything they want in Cleveland. This is true. But the logic is like getting out of putting up your relatives by burning your house down.

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They Play Rough

This remark about Cruz's "gestapo tactics" is one of the reasons I said Paul Manafort's appointment to take over Trump's hunt for dark delegates was an unqualified plus for Democrats.