We’re on day two of this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. In our fifth year with the Fund we know there are key benchmarks we need to hit on certain days to be able to meet our goal. A really big one is hitting $150,000 by the end of today. We’re currently just over $130k $139k $147k. If you’re planning on contributing to the drive this year it would be great if you could make today the moment. Our new payment system makes it super easy. No more than a minute or two tops. Just take a few moments out from your browsing routine and click right here. We thank you.

This is a two-part post, with two related but very distinct topics.

It looks like there’s a really good chance we’re going to get a change at the top of the ticket. Big, unprecedented, historic development. This isn’t to advocate a point or change anyone’s mind. I simply think it’s important to say this so everyone understands it. We have a lot of assumptions about the November election, we have a lot of gut instincts, certainly, since the debate. But the only thing we have that is somewhat objective is polling data. I think a lot of people have this idea that Biden is dead in the water and basically can’t win and that is the backdrop for their thinking about changing candidates. That may be true. But by the data there’s really little to no evidence for that. Biden’s behind, but not by much. He’s the underdog, certainly. But the most decisive part of the election season hasn’t even happened yet. When Adam Schiff or some backbencher in the House says they’ve determined Biden has no path to the presidency or cannot win, that is their hunch and they have no more insight into the matter than you, a close follower of politics, does. That is a fact.

We’re off to a solid start to this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. We just hit $122,000 toward our goal of $500,000. We’ve got a ton of news today and I want to get back to that. So I’ll try to keep it brief. The drive is super important. It is. It’s a critical part of what keeps us going. If you value what we do and it’s important to you that we keep doing it please consider contributing today. The link is right here. If you want more information about why it’s important click here. It matters a lot and we really appreciate all those who’ve contributed over the first 24 hours.

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss the Trump assassination attempt over the weekend, Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance and where things stand now on Joe Biden’s candidacy.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

For the second installment of Inside TPM, I spoke with Kate Riga, who, like many at TPM, wears many hats. As podcaster/Capitol Hill reporter/Supreme Court reporter/(possible author???), she is a true multihypenate. Kate talked about how TPM chooses the Supreme Court cases it covers and how she prepares for the unique challenges involved in covering Supreme Court oral arguments and decision days. She also gives some book recommendations and her take on the state of the WNBA (at 6-19, her Washington Mystics are struggling just as much as everyone else in DC these days).

Two other things real quick. First, if you missed the last episode with Josh Kovensky, check it out here. Also, if you haven’t seen, we launched our TPM Journalism Fund drive. Our goal is to get to $150k today. If you can contribute, we’d greatly appreciate it!

I wanted to share a few thoughts with you about the current state of things with President Biden’s candidacy. See it more as comparing notes with you than reporting, per se.

Yesterday there was a frenzy when President Biden’s interview with BET was released and he said that he would leave the race if doctors told him he had some medical condition or illness that made it necessary. Was this planting the seed? Was this how it was going to happen? When it was reported a couple hours later that Biden had COVID, I thought to myself: Are we going full Aaron Sorkin here? Is this really happening? It was one of those few moments when I literally couldn’t figure out what was going on. Is this for real? Are we saying the interview was a cue up for the COVID? Does he really have COVID? Are the writers just pushing the bounds of realism?

But as I alluded to yesterday afternoon there are other things happening that are not cinematic. Random backbenchers telling Biden he should end his candidacy was never going to do it. As we’ve said from the beginning, the people who can deliver that message to the President are Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, perhaps Barack Obama, though that last one is a lot less clear to me. Starting yesterday it became clear that all three congressional leaders either had or were in the process of doing that. That matters, in ways that all the other stuff does not.