John Fetterman’s Pennsylvania Senate run turned out to be one of the most high-stakes, closely watched and — for many — most emotionally engaging of the cycle. Now we are going to learn how it unfolded from the inside. On Monday at 2 p.m. ET will be joined for a TPM Newsmaker briefing by Fetterman campaign manager Brendan McPhillips. We’ll talk about the early salad days when it seemed like Fetterman might win in a landslide, the tightening polls, press criticism over Fetterman’s absence from the campaign trail, the debate and what the campaign did to secure victory in the final days when many election analysts were predicting a Mehmet Oz win in a Republican wave.

TPM’s Kate Riga and I will lead the discussion and take your questions. The briefing is open to all TPM members. If you’re a member you should be receiving an email shortly with instructions on how to register and join us on Monday.

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate break down election results from a night that was decidedly not a red wave.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here

Democratic strategists Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier were the two most prominent voices telling us for weeks that the 2022 Red Wave was a mirage. They were right. We talked to them yesterday about what they saw. If you weren’t able to join us live you can see the discussion after the jump.

One of the clearest takeaways from the 2022 midterm was that Trump-backed candidates did quite poorly. Meanwhile Ron DeSantis chalked up a thundering reelection victory in Florida, just shy of 60% of the vote. That is the kind of reelection victory that cues up a big state governor for a presidential run. DeSantis can say plausibly that he essentially owns the state of Florida and that he has a politics that sells in a large and diverse state. These factors have begun to coalesce into a push within the GOP to move not beyond Trumpism, which DeSantis embodies, but beyond Trump himself. Trump is old, profoundly divisive, in deep legal trouble. Meanwhile Republicans have suffered defeat in the last three electoral cycles largely because of opposition to him.

Moving away from Trump, though, will be a lot harder than it looks.

This has seemed more plausible over the course of the day. But events this evening make it seem like Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) very much has the inside track to claim reelection in Nevada. Not quite a lock. But getting close. Cortez Masto is currently still behind by about 16,000 votes, though she made up significant ground today. The key is that there are likely 100,000 or more votes outstanding. Those are overwhelmingly mail votes from the two big urban counties, a bucket of votes Cortez Masto has been winning by a two-thirds margin. If those vote totals are roughly accurate and something in the neighborhood of that percentage holds up she should cut right through Laxalt’s lead in the next few days.

It’s not a certainty but it’s getting close.

Rep. Lauren Boebert has been behind since votes started being counted last night. Over the course of today it appeared that she was most likely to eke out a victory by the smallest of margins. She was behind by a few thousand votes but the remaining votes seemed to favor her. Her margin got down to just over 60 votes. (It’s currently at 73.) But as of a short while ago those votes from Boebert-friendly areas are now tapped out and the much smaller number of remaining votes, according to an analysis Channel 9 in Denver, now come from counties where challenger Adam Frisch holds strong leads. They’re not quite calling it yet. But the math makes it seem inevitable.

On the contrary, “I’ve Seen Enough” Cook Report election analyst Dave Wasserman says reports of Boebert’s demise are premature.