Is Boebert Toast?

UNITED STATES - JUNE 23: Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., attends the House Natural Resources Committee hearing titled “Examining the Department of the Interior's Spending Priorities and the President's FY2022 Budget Proposal,” in Longworth Building on Wednesday, June 23, 2021. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland testified. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
UNITED STATES - JUNE 23: Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., attends the House Natural Resources Committee hearing titled Examining the Department of the Interior's Spending Priorities and the President's FY2022 Budget Pro... UNITED STATES - JUNE 23: Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., attends the House Natural Resources Committee hearing titled Examining the Department of the Interior's Spending Priorities and the President's FY2022 Budget Proposal, in Longworth Building on Wednesday, June 23, 2021. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland testified. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images) MORE LESS

Rep. Lauren Boebert has been behind since votes started being counted last night. Over the course of today it appeared that she was most likely to eke out a victory by the smallest of margins. She was behind by a few thousand votes but the remaining votes seemed to favor her. Her margin got down to just over 60 votes. (It’s currently at 73.) But as of a short while ago those votes from Boebert-friendly areas are now tapped out and the much smaller number of remaining votes, according to an analysis Channel 9 in Denver, now come from counties where challenger Adam Frisch holds strong leads. They’re not quite calling it yet. But the math makes it seem inevitable.

On the contrary, “I’ve Seen Enough” Cook Report election analyst Dave Wasserman says reports of Boebert’s demise are premature.

I will say that few are more reliable in analyzing returns than Wasserman. That tweet is all he’s said. So it’s not clear that he thinks Boebert will come back. The original version of this post went with the Channel 9 analysis. The issue seems to be whether the remaining vote is actually from GOP-leaning parts of an otherwise Democratic area.

Late Update: Zooming in a bit further the issue seems to be that the remaining ballots may be heavily Election Day ballots, albeit from a generally Dem-leaning area. Ergo, they lean more Republican, as Election Day ballots generally do.

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