Waking this morning, I confess to being perturbed at politics or history or whoever else is running this story. Because each time I feel like it’s coming into focus and I have an understanding of the motion of events, somehow that motion trundles into a sign post or lurches off in another direction.

Yesterday evening I saw the first thing that made me think Joe Biden will weather this storm and remain the Democrats’ candidate for President. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared outside the Capitol stating clearly and categorically that Biden’s in the race and she supports him. Period. Interestingly she referred to having spoken to him “extensively” over the weekend. By my subjective impression, she didn’t say this, as I’ve seen some Democrats say things over the last week, in a way that struck me as a holding pattern remark. AOC obviously carries a lot of weight in the progressive wing of the party. But beyond that she has exceptionally good political instincts, both as to the general election as well as the mood within the congressional party. When I saw the video of her comments it was the first card I’d seen on the table in ten days which made me think this whole drama would go in President’s direction.

Then after seeing this I saw something that happened earlier in the day but which I hadn’t seen yet. (I spent much of the afternoon working on something else.) The Congressional Black Caucus came out squarely in favor of the President. This fits a historical pattern. The CBC remained steadfast for Bill Clinton in his most beleaguered days. But it also lines up with what I’d heard anecdotally about reactions to the last week among many African-American voters.

This thing has spun in so many directions I’m not inclined to make any predictions. But these developments strike me as very big deals.

One more thought on this dismal standoff between President Biden and many in his party. Democrats are now in this weird and sometimes jaw-dropping standoff in which major elected Democrats make statements criticizing their current de facto nominee in the hope he’ll stop being the nominee and make way for a better nominee even though they’re not really clear who that nominee will be. I’m not being as arch as I may sound. I get why they’re doing it. They think he needs to step aside for a more able nominee and this is their way of adding pressure. But to the extent it becomes a process with no clear end point it has some pretty obvious downsides. You have a damaged nominee and you damage him even further and he’s still your nominee. This has to go one way or another and fairly soon.

We’ve noted a few times that there are half a dozen or so Democratic party stakeholders with the clout and standing to force this issue. But among those Pelosi is at least the first among equals. There’s Schumer, Jeffries, Clyburn, maybe Obama. Large groups of officeholders would obviously speak with a force of their own. But I think this really comes down to her. She’s been very quiet over the last few days.

One way or another this has to be brought to a halt. In a very real sense the Biden v Trump contest has been replaced for the moment by a Biden v mostly, but not all, unnamed Democrats contest.

This is another one of those focused, factual-question posts. As always, not trying to signal a larger point here. Just trying to address a specific question for the community which a number of TPM readers have asked me via email. Here goes.

There are suggestions out there, in some cases verging on urban legends, that no one is taking into account the fact that in many states the deadlines have already passed for switching the candidate names on the presidential ballots. Heritage has put out that they’ve got a team of lawyers ready to hit the courts. I’ve seen claims the the deadlines have passed in key swing states.

While I’m no election law expert and certainly no expert of individual state laws, I feel highly confident that none of this is accurate.

Here’s why.

Just a side or secondary point that I wanted to add to what’s below. As I said, a President can’t lose the support of his congressional party going into an election. Why that happens or whether it’s fair becomes secondary to the fact itself. It’s one thing in ordinary circumstances. But you simply can’t have or survive that going into an election, certainly not one where you appear to be running at least a bit behind. I wanted to mention something about members of Congress themselves. In my experience the vast number of members of Congress have no hidden insight or greater access to information than you or I do. They may in certain instances get access to party polling. But that usually leaks in some form or another fairly quickly. They’re basically just as prone to panic, the groupthink of their social sets or cocoons, wishful thinking as you or I am.

This isn’t universal of course. Some have better political instincts than others. Some have really good political instincts. But on balance they’re just not cut from very different political cloth. That’s my experience at least.

Shocking and shockingly good news out of France. A longtime TPM reader who I am in constant touch with is an immigrant from France. And through conversations with him over the last few weeks I was expecting — though by no means sure — that Le Pen’s National Rally party would come up short in the run off. But the actual results are even more dramatic. They appear to be coming in third. Not just behind the the parties of the left running as a consolidated new United Front, but actually behind President Macron’s centrist party too. A couple weeks ago I think the best anyone was hoping for was keeping National Rally short of an absolute majority. It was treated as a foregone conclusion they’d get a plurality of seats. But even the Republicans — the old center-right party of government which has been thoroughly marginalized — is over-performing relative to expectations. It’s really a stunning reversal.

I’m going to put almost all of this post under the fold because it’s just some general observations about the UK election. See below for U.S. stuff.

In one of the DC newsletters this morning, Mike Allen largely streamed the Trump campaign’s inner monologue about the “brutal attack” they plan to unleash on Kamala Harris if and when she becomes the nominee (and I really think it’s very likely when, not if). Meanwhile, he writes, Republicans are asking why they weren’t told about the Biden situation. Voters will ask. Democrats will ask! I really hope people won’t be stage managed like this, or led into dramas of self-doubt and self-wraithing. One thing that Trump is good at, really good at, is the cadence and roll out of public drama, maintaining the tempo and initiative, the mix of threats and bombast.

There’s a tableful of taunts and attacks just waiting there for Harris or another Democratic nominee to pick up. Obviously this isn’t where Democrats wanted or expected to be. But if they are here or will be here soon they should see and jump on all the opportunities it opens up. And there are a lot.

I noted earlier how Thomas Jefferson very clearly disagreed with the idea that the President was or should be immune from prosecution under the law, or above the law in any way. I also mentioned that as a general matter virtually every aspect of the authorship and debate over the Constitution was at war with the concept of presidential immunity outlined in the recent Supreme Court decision. A TPM reader reminded me further of this passage from Federalist 69, authored by Alexander Hamilton, certainly the Constitution architect and author most friendly to executive power.