Josh Marshall

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Josh Marshall is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TPM.

What To Make of the Polls Prime Badge
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This is a post not so much focused on the news of the moment but one in response to a question I get a lot. It’s also a post I’ve wanted to do because I’ll be able to refer back to it as we go forward through the final sprint of the campaign. The question is a really basic one: Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, how much confidence can we have that the current polls are giving us an accurate or realistic picture of the current campaign?

Let me deal briefly with what are important but mostly obvious caveats. Polls, or really poll averages, are almost never exactly right and not infrequently they suffer from systemic error. So can we rely on them? No. That would be silly. Most of the time they are fairly accurate predictors of election outcomes. But in close races, a “normal” polling miss of a point or two can change the result. But what people who ask me this question are really asking is whether we should expect that polls are underestimating Trump’s strength as they did in 2016 and 2020.

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Big Milestone Tonight

We’re currently just $525 short of $400,000 raised in this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. That’s 4/5ths of the way toward our goal. Can you take a moment to contribute this evening and help us reach this big milestone? Just click right here and thank you so much.

Harris’ Campaign Is Working—Get Used to It Prime Badge
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I’m reading through a Puck newsletter, sent out under the heading “The Vibes Election.” Some of this is similar to what I discussed in yesterday’s Backchannel — Happy v. Mad, etc. But most of it zeroes in on the idea that Harris’ campaign is all vibes and no substance, a sugar high, something that can’t last. Will it be enough to carry her to Election Day? Here’s one snippet.

Put another way: Vibes, baby! Harris has not outlined any specific economic agenda, speaking only in generic terms about corporate greed, standing with labor unions, protecting Social Security and Obamacare, and fighting for the middle class. She is framing the election simply as “the choice about what direction this country will go in”—conveying an agreeable set of center-left values against Trump rather than a 10-point plan for this or a white paper for that.

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Team Happy vs Team Mad Prime Badge
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I’m not the first to note this. I saw a headline somewhere over the weekend that the campaign had reset to one between the Happy Tribe and the Angry Tribe. It’s always reductive to try to capture the vast complexity of two national campaigns in a simple catch phrase or binary opposition. But those broad descriptions can capture realities that transcend the details; they are often the takeaway for those watching only at a distance.

It doesn’t take much imagination to think of Trump and the MAGA movement as the Angry Tribe. I mean, they’ve always been Team Angry, or maybe Team Grievance or Team Vengeance. But what about the Harris campaign and the earlier Biden campaign? The Biden campaign, which I supported greatly, was not a happy tribe. I don’t mean that as a criticism. Happy isn’t the only or most important part of a political campaign. Especially when there’s quite a lot not to be happy about.

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You Lovely People, You!

The middle period of a drive is the most difficult part. You’re past the initial rush of contributions (thank you!). But it’s before you start approaching the finish line, at which point the pace starts picking up again. The middle period is where we are right now — but we’re now getting close to a big, big milestone, because over the last 53 hours, TPM readers have contributed just over $44,000. Which is friggin’ amazing! Now we’re coming up on the last big milestone ($400,000) before we hit our goal of $500,000. We think we can get there this weekend. We’re now just over $378,000. If you want to help nudge us toward the big four-zero-zero, just click right here.

Status Check

The Times-Siena poll has been among the least friendly to Democrats through this political cycle and the previous one as well. It’s always important to remember: that doesn’t mean it’s “wrong” or “biased.” In every election you have a range of pollsters making slightly different assumptions about the electorate. You only know which assumptions are right, or most predictive, when you get the election results. Today Times-Siena released a new poll showing Harris up 50-46 over Donald Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Same result in each.

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Kamala Dog Walked Trump Right Back Into the Debate Prime Badge
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One thing that gets a bit lost in all the helter-skelter of the last few days: Trump caved big time. Harris said he needed to show up on September 10th. And after three weeks of threats and whining he agreed.

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Times and WaPo Jump On Board Trump Camp Swift Boating of Walz Prime Badge
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The Post’s and the Times‘ pieces on Tim Walz service record are more egregious and spurious than you’re probably able to imagine. The accusations come from two members of his unit who are clearly MAGA partisans and who floated them during his 2022 reelection campaign for Minnesota governor in coordination with Walz’s Republican opponent. The attacks aren’t just “like” the Swift Boat attacks from 2004. They’re literally the work of the same guy. Chris LaCivita was the strategist who ran the Swift Boat attacks in 2004 and cut the commercials. He’s now the co-manager of the Trump campaign. He started this and then handed it off to Vance. As David noted, even Politico headlined it as a “Swift Boat” attack. Politico!

The accusation, such as it is, is that Walz retired from service just before his unit was deployed to Iraq.

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Ok I Actually Need Your Help Here

Have you been planning to contribute to our TPM Journalism Fund drive but haven’t had the chance? We’re now in the second half of the drive. It’s always the hardest slog, the part when it seems like we may not reach the goal we need to reach. Can you take a moment and make a contribution today if you’ve been considering it? I would, we would really appreciate it. It’s a key part of what keeps TPM going strong. It keeps us ready for whatever is next. It’s super easy to do. You can just click right here. Any amount truly helps and we absolutely put your dollars of support to good use.

UPDATE 4:55 PM 7:23 PM 8:45 PM 12:18 AM 9:25 AM: We’re now just over $334,000 $340,000 $343,000 $346,000 $348,000 (Almost here! LFG!!!!! – 12:19 AM). If we can get to $350,000 by the end of today we’ll be within shooting distance of the pace we’ll need to get to our goal of $500,000 by the end of the drive.

Inside the Galactically Over-Determined Story of Tim Walz’s Governing Ideology Prime Badge
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Right now we’re seeing a parallel race to define Tim Walz, much as we saw and were seeing with Kamala Harris beginning in the last week of July. The stakes of defining the veep nominee are nowhere near as high as they are for the race to define the person at the top of the ticket, where so far it’s gone all in Kamala Harris’s direction. But I wanted to note some of the dimensions of this battle to define. Paradoxically, it’s going on both between the parties and also within the Democratic Party. The Democratic left and the GOP both seem joined in wanting to portray if not Walz than the Walz pick as a sign of rising left-wing power in the Democratic Party or a de facto veto over any VP pick that would validate or express support for Joe Biden’s policies on Israel and Gaza. I don’t think either point is so much wrong as misleading and a simple misreading of the actual political dynamics which are shaping the current moment or politics going back the last six or seven years.

Let me start with a related observation.

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