The Times-Siena poll has been among the least friendly to Democrats through this political cycle and the previous one as well. It’s always important to remember: that doesn’t mean it’s “wrong” or “biased.” In every election you have a range of pollsters making slightly different assumptions about the electorate. You only know which assumptions are right, or most predictive, when you get the election results. Today Times-Siena released a new poll showing Harris up 50-46 over Donald Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Same result in each.
This is at least directionally in line with other polls we’ve seen over the last two weeks, in which Harris has a modest but measurable lead at least in Michigan and Wisconsin and often in Pennsylvania too. But as the pollster whose numbers have generally showed weaker-end numbers for the Democrats, it tends to confirm the new electoral reality — at least for the moment. Harris now appears to have significant leads in the Blue Wall states, which alone are enough for electoral victory, if only by the slenderest of margins. Meanwhile she is at least in solid contention in the southern tier states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and quite possibly North Carolina.
This means that it’s Trump, who’s never very much on electoral defense, needing to hold all the southern tier states and grab at least one of the states in the Blue Wall. We still have almost three months left of this race. We’re only three weeks in. But this is a decisively changed race. That’s not an overstatement. It’s not just the top-line numbers. Major demographic groups have shifted in Harris’ favor. She’s simply more popular, more popular than Biden had been in years and more popular, judged by net favorability, than she was more or less until she became the de facto nominee.
