Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 41-36 in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters nationally in the latest release of the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll.
In a four-way race, Clinton leads Trump by four points, 39-35, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polling at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
The Ipsos/Reuters poll released last week showed Clinton ahead by six points, 42-36, among likely voters in the head-to-head matchup, and 40-35, with Johnson at 7 and Stein at 3 in the four-way race.
The Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll collected online responses on Aug. 13-17 from a subset of 1,049 likely voters nationally.
TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Clinton ahead of Trump nationally, 43.4 to 38.2.
Time for some Sam Wang-style reality checking. Clinton = 341 EV; Trump=197. Bayesian Prob. of Clinton Win = 88 %. This has been very consistent over time and is close to Larry Sabato’s prediction of 348 E.V. for Clinton.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/
Too much obsessing over individual national polls can lead to loss of proportion.
From last week to this week, in the 4 way race, Clinton lost 1 percent, Stein lost 1 percent, Johnson and Trump held steady. Last week the total of all the the candidates was 85 percent, this week, the total is 83 percent. What is going on with the other 15- 17 percent of likely voters? Are they answering that they are undecided? OR none of the above?
Comment was edited to correct the figures.
File under: “My Heart Bleeds”
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-18/ads-for-presidential-race-drop-60-hurting-local-broadcasters?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics
Hint, HO-Man doesn’t buy ads.
Thinking the same thing. Maybe if the news cycles covered the election more?
I saw KellyAnn on CNN and MSNBC explaining how Trump’s plummeting poll numbers and his position in the polls are…~wait for it!~…"…a good thing." lmao
One of the best cases of “turd polishing” in Trumplandia’s Orwellian Opposite World I’ve seen in some time.
I almost blew coffee out muh’ nose!
Oh KellyAnn…KellyAnn…Have you learned nothing?
The best you can do it roll Trump in some glitter…or in his case, gold foil.
And inside the gilt, he’s still …well, you know…and so does a YOOGE’ majority of the American voting public.