All Going Swimmingly in AZ-2

I got this fascinating report from TPM Reader EK about the situation in Arizona’s 2nd district …

I wanted to share a closer look at one House race to get some insight into where Nate may be off.

FiveThirtyEight shows Walt Blackman with an 84% chance of winning over incumbent Tom O’Halleran in Arizona’s new 2nd Congressional District.

First, the Republican primary is in disarray. Blackman has proposed murder charges for women who get abortions. Trump came to Arizona to endorse Ed Crane, who has very few ties to Arizona. Trump was actually booed by the audience because they want Ron Watkins, who had a key role in forming Q Anon.

Attached is a flyer Crane supporters mailed to Republicans attacking Blackman for the Aug. 2 primary.

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Jan 6 Panel Releases New Videos Showing Trump’s Reluctance To Condemn Insurrectionists

Then-President Trump crossed out “you do not represent me” in a draft statement his staff prepared for his video address on Jan. 7, urging him to condemn the mob of his supporters who breached the Capitol on Jan. 6.

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GOP Ex-Lawmaker Sentenced For Breaching Capitol Vows To Raise ‘Absolute Hell In DC’

A Republican and then-member of West Virginia’s state House of Delegates who proudly livestreamed himself storming the Capitol on Jan. 6 last year and was subsequently charged swore revenge on Sunday.

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California Trolls Texas With Assault Weapons Ban Modeled On Controversial Abortion Law

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

Time To See If It Goes Both Ways

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed a bill modeled after Texas’ anti-abortion law which allows private citizens to sue as a means to enforce a ban–except California’s new law is about assault weapons.

  • Under California’s law, private citizens can sue for a minimum of $10,000 per weapon against: 
    • Anyone who manufactures, transports or distributes assault weapons
    • Licensed dealers who sell firearms to buyers under 21
  • The text of the California bill as written in February was tied directly to Texas’ abortion ban. The gun law would become “inoperative” if the Texas abortion law got struck down by the Supreme Court, according to the text.

Kansas To Vote On First State Constitutional Amendment On Abortion

On Aug. 2, Kansas voters will decide whether their state’s constitution enshrines the right to an abortion.

  • If the proposed amendment on the ballot passes, the GOP supermajority in the Kansas state legislature could pass an abortion ban akin to fellow red states.
  • Right now, abortion in Kansas is legal for pregnancies of up to 22 weeks (though patients are required to go through a 24-hour waiting period), making it a crucial state for people in surrounding anti-abortion states to get the procedure.

Biden’s COVID Symptoms Greatly Improving, WH Doc Says

Biden’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, reported in a letter to the White House on Sunday that the President had completed his third full day of Paxlovid treatment, his COVID-19 symptoms “continue to improve significantly” and that his “predominant” symptom is now sore throat (which is a sign his body is clearing the virus, according to O’Connor).

Jan. 6 Panel Members Press DOJ On Trump Criminal Probe

Several members of the House Jan. 6 Committee, including committee vice chair Liz Cheney (R-WY) on Sunday urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to finally open a criminal investigation into Trump given how much evidence against the ex-president has emerged–especially in the committee’s own investigation.

Ginni Thomas Potentially Faces Subpoena

Jan. 6 panel vice chair Cheney told CNN on Sunday that the committee is “fully prepared to contemplate a subpoena” if Big Lie extraordinaire Ginni Thomas, the ultra-conservative wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, doesn’t speak to it voluntarily.

  • The committee has been in contact with Thomas’ counsel, according to Cheney.
  • Thomas’ lawyer told the Jan. 6 panel last month that it needed a “better justification” for an interview with his client, even though Thomas had previously told the Daily Caller that she “looks forward” to speaking to the committee amid revelations of her close ties to Trumpland’s election steal crusade.

Run, Hawley, Run!

The Kansas City Star’s editorial board put out an absolutely scathing editorial on Saturday ripping into Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), whom the board declared to be a “laughingstock” after the House Jan. 6 Committee presented amazing surveillance cam footage showing the fist-pumpin’ GOP senator scampering away from the insurrectionists

“Surely the Yale and Stanford grad isn’t gullible enough to believe the craven lies about tampering with voting machines and dead people casting ballots that ooze through social media. And that’s the reason watching Hawley racing away from the Capitol invaders struck so many people as blackly hilarious. Saluting the Trump posse was politically expeditious for him before the siege began. Yet once he realized his own safety was in real danger from the angry revolutionists swarming the building, he hotfooted it away from ‘his’ people to the protection of the security forces charged with protecting him. Where’s that fist in the air now?”

Key Analysis

“Josh Hawley ran 7.2 in the 40 at the January 6 combine” – SB Nation

WHO Declares Monkeypox Global Health Emergency

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization director general, announced that the monkeypox outbreak was a “public health emergency of international concern” on Saturday.

  • Only two other diseases are currently designated by WHO as global health emergencies: COVID-19 and polio.
  • Tens of thousands of people have been infected over just several weeks.
  • Almost all monkeypox infections outside of Africa are concentrated among men who have sex with men.
  • Essential explainer: “Monkeypox is the latest global health emergency. Here’s what to know.” – The Washington Post

Must Read

“The Enigma of Peter Thiel: There Is No Enigma — He’s a Fascist” – Unpopular Front

Trump Gets Booed At Arizona Rally

Trump’s endorsement of Eli Crane, a GOP hopeful for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, during his MAGA rally on Friday was met with boos from the crowd, leading Trump to ask (almost pleadingly) “But you like me, right?”

(For context, the Independent reports that Crane has been criticized for running in a district he doesn’t have ties to a la New Jerseyan Pennsylvania GOP nominee Mehmet Oz)

Oh, and then there’s this:

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Jan. 6 Panel Members Call On DOJ To Open Criminal Investigation Into Trump

Several members of the Jan. 6 Select Committee on Sunday argued that there is enough evidence for Attorney General Merrick Garland to open a criminal investigation into former President Trump after the panel’s public hearings detailed its case that the deadly Capitol insurrection was the result of a multi-step, concerted effort by Trump and his allies to subvert the 2020 election results.

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Jan. 6 Panel Outlines New Information It Is Seeking Before Hearings Resume

Reps. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Elaine Luria (D-VA), both of whom serve on the Jan. 6 Select Committee, on Sunday outlined what new information they hope to gain ahead of additional hearings in September as the panel continues to expand its investigation.

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Cheney: Jan. 6 Panel Will ‘Contemplate Subpoena’ For Ginni Thomas If Necessary

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), vice chair of the Jan. 6 Select Committee, on Sunday said the panel will “contemplate a subpoena” for Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, if she does not voluntarily come forward.

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Missouri Newspaper: ‘Fleeing Coward’ Hawley Is A ‘Laughingstock’ After Jan 6 Vid

A major newspaper in Rep. Josh Hawley’s (R-MO) home state is joining in on the laughs after the Jan. 6 Select Committee aired security footage of the GOP congressman fleeing from insurrectionists as they stormed the Capitol.

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More Josh Numbers Mumbling

I’ve been noting in different posts that there are more disconnects than usual in making sense of the 2022 election. A lot of things don’t quite seem to fit. Is this the continuing upheaval of the last two years? A shift in the trend? Or just wishful thinking? Who knows. But TPM Reader YK noted to me recently a little detail that helps quantify that disconnect. Our friend Nate Silver’s 538 forecasts include three versions. One with a mix of polls, expert opinion and a mix of history, fundraising, voting patterns and more. It’s this last one that is usually treated as the canonical forecast. That one currently shows the Senate at 50%-50% between Democratic and Republican control. With the House it’s 85%-15% in favor of the GOP. (Technically, these are the percentage of times the computer simulation gives victory to each side.)

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Trump and the Trajectory of the Trump Presidency

One great theme of reportage on the Trump presidency is that it took Trump almost his entire term of office to learn how to make the federal government run to his purposes, to bend it to his will. He learned to ignore his cabinet secretaries and operate through the lesser-known officials with their hands on the levers of power. He found ways to exploit the maze of loopholes, workarounds and unenforceable laws which essentially allowed him to ignore Senate confirmation and oversight. This week Axios published a big report on how Trump and his top advisors are planning to use this knowledge in a second term to gut the federal bureaucracy and restock it with an army of Trump loyalists. In other words, in term one, Trump’s very ignorance and laziness provided a critical insulation against his worst instincts and most malicious goals. In term two he will hit the ground running knowing exactly what to do.

While accurate in many regards, this view of the man and the trajectory of his presidency misses the essence of it. What hides from most, almost in plain sight, is that Trump now rarely discusses any political agenda — even in the broadest, most guttural and least policy-oriented sense of the term. There is no agenda other than revenge and payback for the injustices and injuries he personally suffered in his first term: the Democrats, the RINOs, Mueller, the impeachments, the “fake news”, what he memorably calls “Russia, Russia, Russia,” “Big Tech.” Remember that “fake news” wasn’t part of Trump’s 2016 campaign argot. That was appropriated from the growing discourse of campaign misinformation he profited from and retrofitted for use against what he perceived as an unfriendly press. Grievance and payback have always been the central touchstones of Trumpism. But this is distinct. To appreciate his arc we have to go back to the beginnings of the Trump presidency.

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