I really, really want to see it change. And it may change. We’re still two and a half weeks before Election Day. But I don’t think there’s much question now that there’s a late GOP surge in the polling data. You see this showing up clearly in the congressional generic ballot numbers. Hopefully, the Dems’ Senate majority can withstand that. There are still many advantages the Dems have in those handful of Senate races that will make a difference. We don’t know this is the last shift. And the polls remain close enough to make the assumptions of the pollsters as critical as last minute trends. But Democrats need to leave absolutely everything on the field.
Graham Ordered To Testify In Georgia DA Probe By Appeals Court
A three-judge panel on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday ordered Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to testify in Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ investigation into ex-President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia.
Continue reading “Graham Ordered To Testify In Georgia DA Probe By Appeals Court”About Time—US Considers National Security Reviews on Musk’s Deals
Bloomberg reports that administration officials are for the first time considering national security reviews of Elon Musk’s increasingly international-man-of-mystery business deals stretching from Silicon Valley to Crimea. The specifics turn on the effort to buy Twitter, now with what appears to be an opaque group of foreign investors as well as his on-again, off-again hints that he might block access to his StarLink telecommunications system over Ukraine.
Of course all of this is playing out with the backdrop of his increasingly pro-Russian comments about the war in Ukraine.
Continue reading “About Time—US Considers National Security Reviews on Musk’s Deals”Biden Exposes Republican Hypocrisy On Israel’s Lebanon Deal
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.
There must be something about Joe Biden winning on Israel policy that drives Republicans nuts — especially when Israel’s government supports the Democrat in the White House.
This dynamic was on full display over the last several days, as President Biden achieved a stunning diplomatic breakthrough that Israel’s government has been seeking for more than a decade: clarity and security over its maritime border with Lebanon.
The Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal is the single most significant advancement towards peace on any of Israel’s borders since the Jordanian peace treaty of 1994. It is to be celebrated.
But unfortunately, the same Republicans who loudly proclaim their support for Israel aren’t interested in acknowledging successful diplomacy by a Democrat during an election season.
Look no further than Republican reaction to the deal.
Of the 23 positive congressional statements made last week about the deal, all but one came from Democrats. The lone Republican statement was from Darrell Issa, a Lebanese American who has long been a proponent of peace and diplomacy in the region. There was silence from the rest of the Republican conference.
Compare this to the Democratic response to the signing of the Trump-negotiated Abraham Accords in September 2020. Joe Biden welcomed them while a candidate in the heat of his own election campaign against Trump — demonstrating how he wasn’t going to play partisan politics with the peace process in the region.
Republicans have done the opposite now and it’s deeply troubling for Israel’s security. Israel depends upon bipartisan American support. Right now, it doesn’t appear to have it.
The reason for this, of course, is clear: Republicans for years have tried to use Israel policy as a political wedge to pry American Jewish voters away from Democrats. For them, supporting a pro-Israel agreement negotiated by a Democrat would undermine their political argument to Jewish voters, and so they reject it.
It’s instructive to look to former president Donald Trump’s statement on Truth Social last week, which was both awash in antisemitism and laid the Republican calculus out for all to see: American Jewish voters are guilty of “disloyalty,” he complained, because “No President has done more for Israel than I have.” Yet, he marveled, evangelicals are “far more appreciative of this than the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S.”
Republicans just aren’t on the same page as Jewish voters on domestic issues, including abortion, climate change, and protecting the U.S.’s democratic processes. Instead, they use Israel as an opportunity to extract votes from the Jewish community, such as when Trump politicized his move of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, hoping to use it for partisan gain.
Republicans look to the Israel issue to gain Jewish voter support because American Jews are overwhelmingly liberal and Democratic, typically voting by margins of 70–75% for Democrats in each election.
Republicans just aren’t on the same page as Jewish voters on domestic issues, including abortion, climate change, and protecting the U.S.’s democratic processes. Instead, they use Israel as an opportunity to extract votes from the Jewish community, such as when Trump politicized his move of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, hoping to use it for partisan gain. Judging by his recent statements, he feels that he deserved more votes than he got from the Jewish community, based solely upon his Israel policy.
This is why Republicans are reacting so furiously to Biden’s swiping of the Israel security issue right out from under their noses. Instead of celebrating Israel’s security victory, it’s more sour grapes for key Republicans who chart the party’s Middle East policy.
For example, take Trump’s former Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, who tweeted after the deal was announced that “All Israel is getting is a ‘guarantee’ from the US. What does that say, what is the nature of America’s commitment, and why is that good for Israel or America?…”
Unfortunately for Friedman, Israel’s cabinet overwhelmingly supported the agreement (minus one abstention from far-right leader Ayelet Shaked). Israel’s security establishment is thrilled and apparently satisfied with America’s guarantees.
And then there’s Trump’s former top Middle East envoy, David Schenker, who suggested that Israel sold out… Israel! He argued that “…the proposition that the maritime deal makes Israel safer or promotes prospects for normalization with yet another Arab State is dubious… It’s difficult to imagine that Hezbollah won’t emerge from these negotiations emboldened by Israel’s decision to delay extraction, perhaps demonstrating undue flexibility to avoid another conflagration.”
Never mind the fact that those in charge of Israel’s security — the Israel Defense Forces — know that the deal is good for Israel’s northern border security. In fact, the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency said that the agreement is not favored by Hezbollah because it constitutes a de facto recognition by Lebanon of Israel, something that Hezbollah opposes but has now come to accept.
It’s clear that Israel’s security leaders view this agreement as a victory for them over Hezbollah, regardless of the negative spin by Trump officials. If only Republican leaders would support them as well. Doing so would show real bipartisan support for Israeli security, but alas, they’re not.
So let’s now speak the quiet part out loud: Republicans know that Joe Biden has just secured an historic win for Israel’s security, which costs them politically. It’s clear that for them, support for Israel’s security is more about their own partisan political benefits than the actual policy benefits for Israel. And so they stay silent.
Kudos to Joe Biden for both backing Israeli security and making this Republican hypocrisy clear.
School Board Candidate Who Argued Not All Nazis Were Bad Keeps Posting Through It
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
Yes This Is Working Out Very Well 4 U
Matt Keefer, a school board candidate in Indiana who prides himself on being anti-“wokeness” and “indoctrination,” recently responded with this when a Facebook commenter asked him if he considered teaching kids that all Nazis are bad to be “indoctrination”: “All Nazis weren’t ‘bad’ as you specify. They did horrible things. They were in a group frenzy.”
- And no, he won’t apologize because “haters gotta hate!”
- Keefer doubled down on Facebook yesterday by insisting he was “correct.” But hey, “To be clear: I never was, am not now, and never will be a Nazi sympathizer.”
- Weird how this keeps happening!
Appeals Court Orders Graham To Testify In Georgia DA’s Probe
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Thursday lost his bid in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to dodge Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ subpoena seeking his testimony in her Trump election meddling investigation.
- More specifically, Graham will have to testify in front of a grand jury on his conversations with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) about the 2020 election results, including the one in which he allegedly asked Raffensperger about throwing away mail-in ballots wholesale.
- Graham’s almost certainly going to appeal the order, which was issued by a three-judge panel on the court. The Republican senator can bring it to either the full appeals court or the Supreme Court.
- Former White House Counsel Pat Cipollone and ex-Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) have testified in front of the grand jury in Willis’ probe, according to a new CNN report. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published texts from Loeffler’s phone earlier this week revealing details of the then-senator’s decision-making as MAGA World tried to pressure her into supporting Trump’s bid to overturn the 2020 election results.
Confederate Superhero Movie Dead After Scammer Allegedly Steals $1M From Investors
A far-right blogger’s plan to create a movie about a Confederacy-themed superhero is in shambles after the $1 million he raised to fund the project was allegedly snatched by the now-indicted founder of the banking firm that was supposed to hold the money in escrow.
- Alas, the founder (who was pretending to be a cryptocurrency multi-millionaire) allegedly looted all the cash while trying to pay off a debt to a different client, according to the Justice Department. He’s been charged with wire fraud and money laundering.
- Sidenote: The DOJ’s press release about the guy’s indictment identifies him as “Spanish Fork Man” in the headline. It’s because he’s from a Utah city called Spanish Fork, but it makes him sound like a cutlery thief from Barcelona.
- The swindled blogger, Theodore Beale, lamented to his followers last week that he “wouldn’t count on us getting the money back.” He also claimed he “strongly” suspected the hustle was a “targeted operation intended to break our community.”
Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Survives Legal Challenges (For Now)
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Thursday shot down a Wisconsin taxpayers group’s bid to block Biden’s student debt forgiveness program from taking effect, and a federal judge in Missouri rejected a similar attempt by six Republican-led states on the same day.
Texas County Asks DOJ To Help Deal With State’s Election ‘Inspectors’
Officials in Harris County, Texas’ most populous county, sent a letter to the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division on Thursday requesting it to send federal monitors in response to the Texas secretary of state’s plan to dispatch “inspectors” who will “perform randomized checks on election records” and “observe the handling and counting of ballots and electronic media.”
Bannon To Be Sentenced Today
Ex-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, who was convicted of two counts of contempt of Congress when he refused to comply with the House Jan. 6 Committee’s subpoena, is having his sentencing hearing this morning.
- The Justice Department is seeking a six-month prison sentence for Bannon, who prosecutors argue “has expressed no remorse for his conduct and attacked others at every turn.”
- Bannon is also facing a maximum $200,000 fine.
Lettuce Outlives Truss’ PM Career
British Prime Minister Liz Truss finally resigned on Thursday after a productive career of tanking her country’s economy and earning rock-bottom disapproval ratings.
- Truss was prime minister for six weeks. The Daily Star’s lettuce with a blonde wig on it lasted longer than she did.
- But Truss could also think about it this way: Her leadership spanned two British monarchs!
- Now her predecessor, the disgraced Boris Johnson, is mulling a potential comeback, according to the Guardian.
Must Read
“‘Changed my life’: Trans teen testifies against nation’s first ban on gender-affirming care” – NBC News
“Alleged voter intimidation at Arizona drop box puts officials on watch” – The Washington Post
Elon Musk Wants To Fire 75% Of Twitter Staff
Tesla CEO and billionaire Elon Musk plans to lay off most of Twitter’s employees once his deal to buy the social media giant goes through, according to the Washington Post.
Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!
Expect a Lot of This
Last night the ABC affiliate in Phoenix reported this incident of what appears to be harassment of a voter at a ballot drop off box. The parking lot is crawling with “activists” who are the legally prescribed number of feet from the ballot box. But one guy drives up in a car and allegedly accuses the voter of being a “mule.” Here’s video the ABC15 posted last night on Twitter.
Continue reading “Expect a Lot of This”Where Things Stand: What You Need To Know From The Loeffler Text Dump
You’ve likely seen some headlines today about the trove of ex-Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s texts that were obtained by reporters for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and, later, Politico. AJC’s article, published last night, detailed the messages’ highlights, and said they came from an anonymous source. The 59-pages worth of messages are from Loeffler’s final weeks in office before she was defeated by Sen. Ralph Warnock (D-GA) in the January 2021 runoff election.
Continue reading “Where Things Stand: What You Need To Know From The Loeffler Text Dump”DOJ Reveals Some Of Trump’s Most Over-The-Top Claims In Mar-a-Lago Case
President Trump appears set to give the special master assigned to sort through records in his case a headache, according to an early filing from the Justice Department in the matter.
Continue reading “DOJ Reveals Some Of Trump’s Most Over-The-Top Claims In Mar-a-Lago Case”There Are 19 Days Until Election Day, But Americans Already Don’t Trust The Midterm Results
We’re less than three weeks until Election Day and early voting has begun in many states. But according to a few recent polls, voters are already skeptical about the results.
On Wednesday, the Associated Press released a poll conducted with the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finding that only about half of the Americans polled had high confidence in the midterm elections — an improvement, but not a huge one, from 4 in 10 right before the 2020 election, which was preceded by ample talk about the dangers of mail-in voting.
The AP poll also found that a whopping 58% of Republicans surveyed still believe that Biden’s presidency is illegitimate, slightly down from 66% from July 2021.
The day before, the New York Times released a similar poll finding that 28% of all voters, including 41% of Republicans, said they had “little to no faith” in the accuracy of the upcoming midterm election results. In general, 71% of all voters polled said they believed that democracy was at risk.
When taking the long view, this pattern shouldn’t come as a surprise, given that former President Donald Trump has devoted the past two years to sowing seeds of distrust. What we’re seeing now are the buds of election chaos, preparing to bloom at some point between now and November 2024.
Voters’ distrust of the system is being bolstered by the candidates themselves, just like in 2020: As we noted earlier this week, 12 Republican candidates in high-profile races across the country have either stated that they won’t accept the results of their elections if they lose or refused to clarify where they stood, in soft advocation for the Big Lie. There are also nearly 300 Republicans on the ballot this year who have denied the results of the 2020 election, a Washington Post analysis found.
“I think what it reflects is free-floating skepticism, paranoia and conspiracy theories about elections, none of which are rooted in any kind of reality, and none of which are responsive to whatever election rules are passed or not,” Nicholas Stephanopoulos, an election law professor at Harvard University, told TPM.
Stephanopoulos found it ironic that Republicans and their base are still unconvinced that elections can be conducted fairly and securely, considering they spent the past few years passing new election rules to ensure of that.
At least 33 new restrictive voting laws that have been enacted in 20 states since January 1, 2021. Lawmakers in 39 states have also proposed 405 restrictive bills during this year’s legislative session alone, according to the Brennan Center at NYU. But these new laws aren’t enough to quell talk of election malfeasance by top Republicans: The Texas secretary of state’s office, for example, recently announced that they will send “inspectors” to observe vote counting in Harris County, the state’s largest district, home to Houston, and a Democratic stronghold. Meanwhile, there’s been no evidence to suggest that widespread voter fraud will affect the general election.
While 2020’s was conducted in unprecedented circumstances — a global pandemic — election administrators this year are facing another unprecedented challenge: a wave of attacks fueled by conspiracy theories about their work. Activists have attacked election workers, leading to many high-ranking officials to leave their positions.
“I am confident that, even facing some serious challenges, election officials will count the votes accurately,” Alex Tausanovitch, director of campaign finance and electoral reform at the Center for American Progress, told TPM. “What I’m concerned about is that people will attack the results.”
Since the 2020 election, there have also been incidents of disgruntled right-wingers filing bogus lawsuits, flooding election offices with records requests, and spreading fresh misinformation and conspiracy theories ahead of Election Day.
“The problem is that over time, that conduct, combined with electing people who don’t believe in our elections, lays the foundation for a future in which we could have elections that are genuinely overturned,” Tausanovitch said.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, worries that conspiracy theories will again run rampant this year after the election. “The fact that we have election results that take a few days or weeks to finalize, that sort of space between election night and reporting the results can be filled with conspiracist thinking.”
“The broad trend in American life is distrust of all sorts of different institutions,” he told TPM, “so this is kind of part and parcel of what you see in other walks of life.”
This pattern, in fact, doesn’t just apply to how elections are run: A Pew Research study released in June found that Americans’ trust in the government has reached historic lows, with only 20% of those polled saying they trust Washington to do the right thing “just about always” or “most of the time.” 68% of those polled said they believed that most candidates run for office “to serve their own personal interests.”
While Trump’s rhetoric fueled the distrust, Kondik says, “it may just reflect the sore loser mentality, where people are looking for excuses other than that they just got fewer votes.”
Listen To This: Three Weeks
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss polls, debates, and late-breaking stories as the midterms approach.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.