Until today, there was a dearth of quality polling over the last 10 days on the congressional generic ballot as well as in key Senate races. That changed today. Multiple, high quality polls confirm a significant shift in the national race in favor of Republicans. Sometimes there is systematic polling error across multiple pollsters. Indeed, it’s happened a couple times in recent years, albeit in the opposite direction. But if these polls are broadly accurate they tell a clear story.
Continue reading “Election Countdown #3”DeSantis’s Florida Pitstop
One of the many questions arising out of Ron DeSantis’s migrant airways stunt two months ago was how his administration justified flying migrants out of Texas when the law explicitly mandated that funds could only be used to fly migrants out of Florida. Newly released documents answer the question.
Continue reading “DeSantis’s Florida Pitstop”The Israeli Electoral College
As I noted earlier, Benjamin Netanyahu is headed back to being Prime Minister. There’s still some question about how many seats he’ll have. But he’ll be PM either way. Title notwithstanding, Israel does not have an electoral college. But I use that headline because this article in the Haaretz notes something with a comparable effect. The pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps both got roughly the same number of votes, both just over 49%. But Netanyahu’s bloc will likely get as many as 65 out of 120 seats — a comfortable majority by recent standards.
So how did this happen?
Continue reading “The Israeli Electoral College”Jan. 6 Panel To Eastman: We’re Keeping the Documents
On Sunday, John Eastman — one of the key architects of Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election — complied with a federal district judge’s order and turned in eight emails to the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack. But as he turned them in, he also asked committee members to refrain from looking at the documents till he got a chance to file an appeal for the judge’s order.
Continue reading “Jan. 6 Panel To Eastman: We’re Keeping the Documents”Federal Judge Bars Far Right Group Surveilling Drop Boxes In Arizona
A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order on Tuesday evening against a far-right group accused of intimidating voters in Arizona.
Voting rights groups filed two lawsuits against the group, Clean Elections USA, over the past few weeks after they organized members to surveil drop boxes throughout Arizona, seeking to prevent supposed “ballot fraud.” The federal judge merged the suits.
Continue reading “Federal Judge Bars Far Right Group Surveilling Drop Boxes In Arizona”Blue Flu
I’ve never thought of myself as a down the line supporter of criminal justice reform. But many reformers (and others, including myself) have claimed that police departments have backed off enforcement in response to criticism of police or policy changes as a kind of silent strike or work stoppage. And new data from San Francisco adds real weight to these claims. As study conducted by economists from New York University’s Public Safety Lab in partnership with The San Francisco Chronicle found that after reform DA Chesa Boudin was recalled and replaced by mayoral appointee Brooke Jenkins, traffic stops rose by 30% and “public order” stops rose by 20%. The shift was more or less immediate.
Continue reading “Blue Flu”The Chaos Is The Point: Get Ready For Legal Hell After The Midterms
When pestered with questions about how and why they would gather conservative activists, ask them to masquerade as the real electors in the 2020 election, waiting in the wings to be called forth, acolytes of the former President constantly return to one argument: They didn’t know that creating fake elector slates was wrong.
Continue reading “The Chaos Is The Point: Get Ready For Legal Hell After The Midterms”Jan. 6 Panel In Talks With Trump Lawyers About Testimony, Cheney Says
House Jan. 6 Committee vice chair Liz Cheney (R-WY) said on Tuesday that the committee is “in discussions” with ex-President Donald Trump’s lawyers about their client testifying in response to the panel’s subpoena.
Continue reading “Jan. 6 Panel In Talks With Trump Lawyers About Testimony, Cheney Says”Election Countdown #2
We’ve been noting that recent polling has been dominated by partisan GOP polls, both statewide polls and the national congressional generic poll. However, CNN has just released a new poll which also shows a strong shift in the Republican direction. It shows a four point Republican advantage on the generic ballot (GOP 51%- Dem 47%) versus a a three point advantage for Democrats one month ago (Dem 50% – GOP 47%). A new NPR/Marist poll, also released today, shows almost the identical result and a comparable shift from just a month ago — from D+3 to R+3 from early October to early November. Until this morning we really didn’t have premium polls confirming this shift. Now we do. Those are relatively small numerical differences but they translate into big numbers in control at least of the House.
Capitol Police Surveillance Cams Caught Pelosi Home Break-In
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
It Was All Right There
It turns out that the U.S. Capitol Police’s surveillance cameras outside House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) home caught the break-in in real time on Friday. Officers monitoring the department’s 1,800-odd cameras didn’t immediately notice the intruder. When San Francisco Police arrived at the Pelosi residence, flashing police lights appeared on the screen and caught the attention of Capitol Police, according to the Washington Post, CNN, and the New York Times.
- Once Capitol Police began to rewind the tape, this is what they reportedly saw:
The officer in D.C. quickly pulled up additional camera angles from around Pelosi’s home and began to backtrack, watching recordings from the minutes before San Francisco police arrived. There, on camera, was a man with a hammer, breaking a glass panel and entering the speaker’s home, according to three people familiar with how Capitol Police learned of the break-in and who have been briefed on or viewed the video themselves.
- The USCP didn’t find out about the break-in and subsequent assault on Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, until 10 minutes after the fact, CNN reports.
- Pelosi faces more threats than any other lawmaker, a law enforcement official told the Post. The police reportedly believe that’s due to the Democratic leader being a woman, being constantly attacked by Republicans, and the fact that she’s second in line to the presidency (something the attacker explicitly mentioned when he confronted Paul Pelosi).
Pelosi Attack Suspect Allegedly Said He Had Other Targets
David DePape, the man who’s been charged with breaking into Pelosi’s home and assaulting her husband with a hammer, allegedly told first responders at the scene that he had planned on attacking a local professor and several state and federal politicians (plus their families), according to a new DOJ filing, which didn’t identify the targets by name.
- DePape also allegedly said he was on a “suicide mission” to stop the “lies coming out of Washington D.C.”
- DePape pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to all state charges connected to the attack. He hasn’t entered a plea for the federal charges yet (for which he could face decades of prison time if convicted).
Judge Reins In Vigilante Group’s Actions At Arizona Drop Boxes
A federal judge on Tuesday prohibited Clean Elections USA, a right-wing group that’s been monitoring ballot drop boxes in Arizona, from engaging in some of the surveillance methods that’ve led to voter intimidation and harassment.
- Both sides stipulated to the temporary restraining order, though it appeared to go farther than what had been discussed earlier in the day in open court.
- The agreed-to order prohibits the group from: taking photos/videos of people at the drop boxes, spreading information about the voters online, and lying on social media or in interviews about Arizona’s laws on early voting.
- The judge, Michael Liburdi, had previously allowed Clean Elections USA to keep monitoring the drop boxes last week in a different lawsuit by the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and Voto Latino. Liburdi said on Tuesday that the evidence provided in this suit, which was brought by the League of Women Voters, was more compelling.
Trump Insists He Won’t Go Back To Twitter
Trump’s likely to get un-banned from Twitter now that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a supposed (but not really) free speech “absolutist,” officially has full control of the social media giant. But the ex-president repeated on Tuesday his previous claim that he “won’t go back” to Twitter even if he could because he prefers his knockoff app, Truth Social.
- Trump claimed that Truth was better because “it’s friendlier” but also “can be very nasty.” The ex-president’s brain worms never take a vacation, do they?
- Truth Social has been found to censor anti-Trump posts, by the way.
SCOTUS Shoots Down Graham’s Request For Lifeline
The Supreme Court rejected Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) bid on Tuesday to block the Fulton County district attorney’s subpoena for his testimony in her Trump election meddling probe in Georgia.
- Graham now has to testify in front of the special grand jury in the district attorney’s case.
- The South Carolina senator can still object to questions, but only on a case-by-case basis.
- Of particular interest to the district attorney: Graham’s call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) after the 2020 election in which the senator allegedly asked Raffensperger about throwing out legally cast ballots.
Bolsonaro Allows Transition But Refuses To Concede
Far-right Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro finally broke his silence on Tuesday after left-wing challenger President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat him in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday: The incumbent has agreed to transition to the new administration.
- But Bolsonaro, who had claimed he’d only lose the election if it were rigged, refused to recognize da Silva’s victory. He just thanked his supporters for voting for him.
- Bolsonaro also didn’t call on his supporters to end the hundreds of roadblocks they set up in protest against his defeat as they waited for him to speak.
Wisconsin GOP Guv Nominee Promises Permanent GOP Control If He Wins
Tim Michels, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ (D) Republican rival, declared during a campaign event on Monday that Republicans “will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.”
- Michels has parroted Trump’s voter fraud lies about the 2020 election and even floated the idea of decertifying the 2020 election results (which isn’t possible).
- Evers’ veto pen is one of the few safeguards left against Wisconsin GOP lawmakers’ voter suppression efforts.
- A spokesperson for Michels denied that the candidate was promising single-party rule, telling the Washington Post that Michels just meant that his policies would be so popular, “voters will reward” Republicans in future elections.
Must Read
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