The End of Bundy Clan Rules

Despite intense security, the Trump militia turnout at Trump’s New York arraignment was fairly low energy. I suspect it will be the same in Florida today, too, though I hope and assume federal law enforcement is planning for the worst. To be clear, when I say low energy, I simply mean legitimate. There might be a big crowd of supporters saying nasty things. That’s their right. But I don’t think there will be violence.

One thing we need to remember is that Jan. 6 was, in a key way, a perfect storm. There was a specific operational thing the mob and the people who’d organized it were trying to do: stop the certification. Stopping the certification would give time for the fake electors scheme to work. If you stormed the courthouse and disrupted Trump’s arraignment, who cares? They’d just do it the next day somewhere else.

Juliette Kayyem made the point on Twitter that the big national right-wing paramilitary-type groups have been significantly disrupted by the Jan. 6 investigations. The temperature is possibly higher now. But the organization is lower. Lone wolves are the big danger now.

But there’s another factor worth discussing. Last night I was reading an email from TPM Reader JS (not the one from a couple days ago). He asked: “Could it be that perhaps the reason that only a few people showed up to protest the Manhattan indictment and this latest one seems to be producing a lot of Tweets and little action is because … the justice system prosecuted the perpetrators of January 6th, causing a deterrent effect?”

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An Increasingly Desperate Trump Is Bent On Revenge

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

The Trump Revenge Tour

The organizing principle of Trump’s re-election campaign first became apparent back in March with his chilling “I am your retribution” speech at CPAC.

I keep coming back to this theme because it animates so much of his rhetoric and has been adopted in both obvious and subtle ways by his closest adherents, and because it poses perhaps the most dire threat to the rule of law if Trump is re-elected.

I bring it back up today because his revenge fantasy is ripening and deepening in alarming ways.

In the immediate aftermath of his indictment in the Mar-a-Lago case, Trump has returned it to the forefront of his own rhetoric, and it’s being picked up again by his boosters. A few of the most egregious examples:

  • Trump warned Monday that if re-elected he will name a special prosecutor to “go after” Joe Biden and his family.

I WILL APPOINT A REAL SPECIAL “PROSECUTOR” TO GO AFTER THE MOST CORRUPT PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE USA, JOE BIDEN, THE ENTIRE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY, & ALL OTHERS INVOLVED WITH THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR ELECTIONS, BORDERS, & COUNTRY ITSELF!

  • Trump has targeted Special Counsel Jack Smith’s wife, an echo of what he previously did to deputy FBI Director Andrew McCable’s wife:

By this point, I feel sure you know the many levels these attacks play at: They effectively cow investigators and prosecutors by raising the price and the pain of enforcing the law against him; they keep everyone involved in holding him accountable looking over their shoulders at what happens if Trump wins in 2024; they unleash the less stable and more deranged among us against Trump’s perceived enemies; they are the rallying cry not just for his supporters at election time but for his appointees and subordinates and acolytes throughout government at the local, state and federal level.

Trump’s revenge fantasy – his stated desire to abuse the powers of the office to inflict pain on those who oppose him – is now more toxic, pervasive, and sinister than at any point in his presidency. It is the rocket fuel to his quickening lurch toward fascism, not only because it appeals to his strongman tendencies, but because now as he faces criminal charges on multiple fronts it is inextricably a part of protecting and preserving his own liberty.

Trump is an increasingly desperate man, and he’s telling us exactly what he will do.

Happy Arraignment Day!

Now that the Mar-a-Lago prosecution – as opposed to investigation – is underway, let me as your humble news concierge suggest that you not get too caught up in the ups and downs of the criminal procedure wrangling that will be going on for the next several months. I’ll share with you in Morning Memo the important developments and what really matters. But criminal trials are their own world, on their own schedule, and accountability ultimately doesn’t look like what you see on TV or in the movies.

Here’s What’s Going Down Today

Arraignments are boring and perfunctory, so don’t expect any big news today when Trump appears in federal court in Miami at 3 p.m. ET. No cameras or recording devices, so we won’t see it. Still, it’s an important moment packed with symbolism.

Magistrate Judge Jonathan Goodman will preside over the arraignment, not U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon.

As it stands now, Trump is expected to fly back to Bedminster after the court appearance for a fundraiser and a televised speech.

About Trump’s Lawyer Search …

Probably too much ink spilled on Trump’s search for a lawyer who can represent him in court in Florida today. But a larger problem remains for Trump in getting the kind of lawyer he needs for this kind of case, as Marcy Wheeler explains.

Open And Shut Case?

Former federal prosecutor Dennis Aftergut: Trump’s “peril is extreme”

House GOP Reaches Temporary Detente With Itself

Late last night, the internal family strife in the House GOP seems to have eased for the moment, but not with any real resolution:

WaPo: McCarthy, Republican lawmakers reach deal to end House floor standoff for now

WSJ: House Conservatives Lift Blockade as Talks Continue With Kevin McCarthy

NYT: Hard Right Agrees to Allow House Votes but Threatens Continued Blockade

Eating Their Own

The North Carolina Republican Party has formally censured Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) for being insufficiently conservative.

Obamacare Update

NYT: “Lawyers reached a deal on Monday to keep the Affordable Care Act’s mandate requiring health plans to cover preventive care at no cost to patients.”

What Happened To Lara Logan?

The Atlantic: A Star Reporter’s Break With Reality

The American Manufacturing Renaissance

Jeff Krimmel: The US manufacturing sector is undergoing a historic construction boom

Makes My Brain Bleed

The GOP reaction to the indictment of Trump in the Mar-a-Lago case is so inane that I haven’t spent much time on it, but in case you needed a taste:

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The RNC Has Gone From Honoring LGBTQ Pride To Attacking Joe Biden For Celebrating It

On Monday, the Republican National Committee’s research arm sent out a memo mocking remarks made by President Biden during an LGBTQ Pride Month celebration over the weekend. Just a few years ago, the memo’s tone might have been surprising. But the attack was the latest chapter in a fraught history that has seen the RNC alternately embrace the annual celebrations, and then back far away from them. 

Continue reading “The RNC Has Gone From Honoring LGBTQ Pride To Attacking Joe Biden For Celebrating It”

Haley’s Micro-Pivot?

Comments from Nikki Haley this afternoon on Fox are getting some attention as a possible pivot away from the uniform and fulsome defense of Donald Trump we’re seeing from every Republican candidate aside from Asa Hutchison. It’s less than advertised but it’s not nothing. It’s also a bit of an incoherent mishmash. She’s going to purge the Deep State DOJ/FBI. Also Trump was reckless and endangered America and the American military. Also, can’t we just nominate me since he’s probably going to get indicted a few more times and it’s all getting to be a bit much and a distraction.

Watch the comments and decide for yourself.

Where Things Stand: Proud Boys Are Too Busy Battling ‘Woke’ To Defend Trump Right Now

In the two years since members of the Proud Boys participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, members of the extremist, anti-government group have switched their focus a bit away from Donald Trump and toward making a fuss at the local level.

Continue reading “Where Things Stand: Proud Boys Are Too Busy Battling ‘Woke’ To Defend Trump Right Now”

Ohio Supreme Court Orders Partial Rewrite Of GOP Ballot Proposal Meant To Thwart Upcoming Abortion Initiative 

The Ohio Supreme Court ruled Monday that Ohio officials must rewrite parts of a ballot initiative state Republicans pushed to raise the threshold for passage of citizen-originated ballot proposals to 60 percent from its current simple majority. 

Continue reading “Ohio Supreme Court Orders Partial Rewrite Of GOP Ballot Proposal Meant To Thwart Upcoming Abortion Initiative “

Short Drive Update

With your support, we’ve managed to get to the 40% milestone on our way toward our goal in this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. We’re now at $202,575, which is great for five days. Still a very long way to go. But we’re encouraged by the response so far. (Really, it’s hard to convey how much of a relief, a show of support, a validation and above all a big, big assist on our collective work that is.) We’ve got an overflow of news, which is kind of inconsiderate of the ex-President. But we’ll do our best to drive and news at the same time. If you’d like to support our efforts in this critical drive, just click right here.

A Cold Civil War Is Upon Us

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

The Incipient Threat Of Political Violence

In the wake of the Mar-a-Lago indictment there were echoes of Trump’s call to arms before Jan. 6, urging supporters to protest his first court appearance tomorrow.

There’s two levels of analysis here: (i) the immediate risk assessment of something bad happening Tuesday; and (ii) the broader threat posed by the injection of political violence – or even the threat of violence – into the public dialogue.

As for tomorrow, my general sense from people who track these things closely, is that there’s insufficient time and coordination among MAGA and other extremists groups to pull off a Jan. 6-like disturbance in Miami. Not no risk, but low risk.

Former DHS official Juliette Kayyem has a good representative sample of that line of thinking:

The bottom line is this week is more likely to see lone-wolf or one-off acts of violence inspired by heated rhetoric from Trump and others than an mob attack on the courthouse in Miami or on law enforcement there. But don’t take that as reassuring. It was shortly after the Mar-a-Lago raid last August that a gunman attacked the FBI field office in Cincinnati.

As for the broader emergence of political violence and rhetoric tinged with violence, we continue to be in a very bad place.

“Political violence experts say that even if aggressive language by high-profile individuals does not directly end in physical harm, it creates a dangerous atmosphere in which the idea of violence becomes more accepted, especially if such rhetoric is left unchecked,” the NYT reported.

What To Expect Tomorrow

3 p.m. ET: Trump to surrender to federal authorities in Miami and appear for his arraignment on the Mar-a-Lago charges

8:15 p.m. ET: Trump will make remarks from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Jack Smith Is Stuck With Aileen Cannon

The NYT’s Charlie Savage dug in deep on how U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon ended up assigned the Trump criminal case in Florida. In short, there was nothing unusual or untoward about her receiving the assignment. But the key takeaway is that unless she decides to recuse herself, it looks like the case is with her for the long haul, not just initially, as was reported last week.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

If you were looking for any early signs of Republicans breaking with the Trump cult of personality over the Mar-a-Lago indictment, sorry to disappoint. Neither Mike Pence nor Ron DeSantis could bring themselves to seize on the indictment even thought they’re running against Trump. In fact, they both attacked the indictment and the Justice Department.

Best Line

Jon Lovett on the MAL indictment: “It’s so funny it feels as though DOJ crossed the writer’s picket line.”

The Worst Client In History

Bloomberg: Trump Indictment Highlights the Perils of Being His Lawyer

NYT: Trump Indictment Shows Critical Evidence Came From One of His Own Lawyers

Unbelievable

I’d prefer if my ex-criminal defense attorney would, to use the legal term of art, shut the fuck up. But former Trump lawyer Tim Parlatore has been out there for days now doing stuff like this:

Great Thread

Jeff Shalet has a must-read thread from Saturday dissecting Trump’s first post-indictment speech in real-time. Really worth a moment of your time:

Fake Outrage

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) tried on the fake umbrage, in-your-face, confront-the-media-to-show-your-own-strength that Donald Trump perfected and Ron DeSantis imitates. The problem – besides it being ridiculous and transparent – is Graham is terrible at it:

Keep An Eye On This

The proceedings to strip Trump coup architect John Eastman of his law license in California are ramping up.

Things You May Have Missed Friday

I know you were gobbling up the Trump indictment in all its glory Friday afternoon, so let me flag a couple of things you may have missed in the MAL tsunami:

  • Rep. George Santos (R-NY) has appealed a judge’s decision to release publicly the names of the co-signors on his $500,000 bond that is keeping him out of jail before his trial on federal charges.
  • The chief federal judge in DC partially unsealed his secret April decision and briefs on whether former Vice President Mike Pence had to testify to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s grand jury investigating Jan. 6 and the Trump-led effort to overturn the 2020 election. Pence, who subsequently testified to the grand jury on April 27 won a small concession from the judge that the Speech or Debate Clause did shield him from questioning in his role as president of the Senate, but in practice that left very little off-limits for Smith.

Still Stuck On The Civil War

The leading non-Trump contenders for the GOP nomination for president are touting their neo-Confederate bona fides, promising to drop the name Ft. Liberty and restore Ft. Bragg:

The Grand Wizard … Oops … I Mean Governor

Quite a moment at the Tony’s:

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