Kamala, A Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery Inside an Enigma, Many People are Saying

TPM Reader KJ sent me this in response to yesterday’s Backchannel. At first I thought these might be made up headlines. But they’re each real. I linked them.

It’s fun to split screen this email with today’s headlines:

The New York Times: Harris Is Set to Lay Out an Economic Message Light on Detail

The Hill: Harris is trying to run a no-substance campaign. Does she believe in anything?

The Washington Post: Opinion | Does Harris need a serious policy agenda? Only if she wants to win.

Poynter: Opinion | When will Kamala Harris meet the press?

I’ve come at this debate in my head from a bunch different directions over the last few days. I gave my overarching view in yesterday’s Backchannel. But there are so many different dimensions to it. Kate and I knocked several of them around in today’s podcast. I actually got in a minor spat today with a reporter who I’d dinged for an article description which presented Harris as a sort mystery candidate verging on a Manchurian Candidate, with unknown views and barely detailed ambitions. Are we kidding with all of this?

Continue reading “Kamala, A Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery Inside an Enigma, Many People are Saying”  

Trump Regales His North Carolina Audience With Strange Fan Fiction About Joe Biden

Donald Trump will not give up his Joe Biden sympathy act.

During nearly every public event since President Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has feigned outrage about Biden’s predicament, and has suggested repeatedly that he thinks the “very angry” President will use the Democratic National Convention next week to try to force his way back into the race.

Continue reading “Trump Regales His North Carolina Audience With Strange Fan Fiction About Joe Biden”  

This Post Is Very Important

Thanks for taking a moment to read this post. We are now at a critical stage in our annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. It’s critical that we hit our goal this year which is to raise $500,000 to prepare TPM for what comes next. We’re in the final lap. Late yesterday we surpassed $400,000, which is simply incredible. We’re now at just over $404,000 $409,000 $415,000 $418,000 $420,000 $423,000. But we really need to reach that goal or at least get as close as we possibly can. I’m pumped because the milestone last night means we now have the wind at our back. The Journalism Fund is the critical piece of the puzzle that allows TPM to thrive while virtually all of our peers have retrenched, announced layoffs or shuttered entirely. We rely on you, our readers and members. And again and again you’ve been there for us.

If you’ve been planning on contributing this year and just haven’t found the right moment, please take just a couple minutes right now, hop out of that frenetic routine, and do it now. You just click here and it takes like literally two minutes. Super simple. Any amount helps a lot. Just click right here.

What To Make of the Polls

This is a post not so much focused on the news of the moment but one in response to a question I get a lot. It’s also a post I’ve wanted to do because I’ll be able to refer back to it as we go forward through the final sprint of the campaign. The question is a really basic one: Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, how much confidence can we have that the current polls are giving us an accurate or realistic picture of the current campaign?

Let me deal briefly with what are important but mostly obvious caveats. Polls, or really poll averages, are almost never exactly right and not infrequently they suffer from systemic error. So can we rely on them? No. That would be silly. Most of the time they are fairly accurate predictors of election outcomes. But in close races, a “normal” polling miss of a point or two can change the result. But what people who ask me this question are really asking is whether we should expect that polls are underestimating Trump’s strength as they did in 2016 and 2020.

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The Ravages Of QAnon Brain Worms In The Real World

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Must Watch

I want to bring your attention today to a tremendous bit of investigative reporting from the indefatigable Phil Williams of NewsChannel 5 in Nashville.

At its heart, the story is about what happens when QAnon conspiracy theories infect the upper ranks of local law enforcement.

The case study Williams uncovers is in Millersville, Tennessee, just north of Nashville, where the police chief (who is also the interim city manager) and assistant police chief have taken to far right podcasts to advance some of the most outlandish QAnon ravings, including Pizzagate.

They claim the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation has cut them off from accessing law enforcement search tools while TBI conducts an audit of the Millersville police department. Williams’ reporting suggests TBI does have some concerns about the department, but TBI wouldn’t comment.

But none of my summary fully captures the many layers of Williams’ extensive long-running investigation, like this gem of line: “Then, there’s the child sex predator sting run by Millersville with a group of MAGA activists — a sting also now being investigated by the TBI.” Oh, boy.

As Williams himself said: “I have never seen anything like this.”

Spot The Racism

Could Get Ugly In Georgia Again

TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: What To Know About the MAGA-Run Georgia Board Trying to Delay Election Certification 

By The Numbers

  • Big Swing: The latest update to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey shows Kamala Harris leading or tied with Donald Trump in all but one of the seven swing states surveyed. Harris leads Trump 48%-47% in the seven states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI) combined. In the last iteration of the survey, in May, Trump was ahead of or tied with Biden in all seven states and led by three points overall.
  • One Data Point: More Republicans than Democrats were registering to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina all year until Kamala Harris entered the race, when the advantage flipped and Democratic registrations began outpacing Republican ones.
  • Non-College-Educated Whites: The internals of the latest NYT/Siena poll show Trump’s margin among non-college-educated whites in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have shrunk from +25 against Biden to +14 against Harris:

2024 Ephemera

  • MN-05: Squad member Ilhan Omar (D-MN) won her primary.
  • WI-Sen: As expected, Eric Hovde won the GOP primary, setting up a general election race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
  • Politico: Biden harbors lingering frustration at Pelosi, Obama, Schumer

Tracking The Trump Campaign Hack

  • Good question: Why newsrooms haven’t published leaked Trump campaign documents
  • WaPo: Suspected Iranian hacks are latest round of U.S. election interference
  • Marcy Wheeler: After Serving as a Pawn for Russia, Roger Stone Became a Pawn of Iran

Boom

A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has disqualified attorney Stefanie Lambert from continuing to represent former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne in Dominion Voting System’s massive civil lawsuit over being falsely implicated in the 2020 Big Lie.

Lambert, who is facing criminal charges in Michigan for illegally accessing voting machines after the 2020 election, repeatedly disclosed discovery information in the Dominion case to outside parties in violation of court rules and orders, the judge found.

“Lambert’s repeated misconduct raises the serious concern that she became involved in this litigation for the sheer purpose of gaining access to and publicly sharing Dominion’s protected discovery,” U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila A. Upadhyaya wrote.

Quote Of The Day

(Trump)’s unfit to serve, he can’t get anywhere near the White House. But if somehow they win, they can actually appoint two or three more justices. And they’re going to be, like, in the Aileen Cannon, they don’t follow any precedent, they’re just going to do Trump’s bidding type. And they’re going to be young, and they’re going to be on that bench for 30 or 40 years.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, speaking at a private fundraising event in Los Angeles

‘I Will Not Be Intimidated’

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson was the victim of two swatting attacks at her Detroit home, one Saturday and another Monday, she revealed this week.

Coda To The Persecution Of Indiana Abortion Doc

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita has dismissed his lawsuit accusing the state’s largest hospital system of violating patient privacy laws when Dr. Caitlin Bernard told a newspaper that a 10-year-old Ohio girl had traveled to Indiana for an abortion.

For Your Radar

Jury selection in the federal criminal trial of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) is set to begin Sept. 9.

The Trump Grift-Industrial Complex

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Scenes the from Wildfires near Athens, Greece

Since Sunday, Greece has been battling forest fires that started during a period of hot and dry weather in the region. Neighborhoods in the outskirts north of Athens have been the most affected and thousands of residents have been evacuated. Many homes and structures have burned down and smoke has engulfed the ancient capital city. Both residents and tourists tried to go about their normal days as firefighters and volunteers fought to control the blaze.

Sanders Calls Out Trump’s New Crowd Size Lies For What They Are: A Foundation For Election Denialism

My colleague, TPM reporter Khaya Himmelman, and I have been very focused over the last several months on covering moments when Donald Trump and his allies tell us how they are going to behave in the fall if Trump loses — or if he appears to be losing in states that would be key to his reelection bid. He’s abiding by the same playbook he followed in 2020, when he laid the rhetorical groundwork for Stop the Steal months before Election Day. It was picked up by only those who were listening. We were, and are, listening. We can see him doing the same thing in real time in 2024.

Continue reading “Sanders Calls Out Trump’s New Crowd Size Lies For What They Are: A Foundation For Election Denialism”  

What We Are, And What We’re Not

Back when a good portion of TPM’s current staff was first getting into journalism in the mid-2000s, there was this idea that the New York Times and the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal were all the things of the past; that world was dying, and whatever was to come next, we were told, was in the process of being born. What would it be? You probably remember some of that era. There was a rush toward digital media startups, with investors pouring money into new outlets.

Now, many of them are gone.

TPM predated this frenzy by a little, and has outlasted it. And our community support is a big part of why we’re still around.

The hope for some in those years was that something new would win the attention of the news-reading audience that the newspapers once enjoyed, and this new thing would be staffed by journalists. That something new, however, did not turn out to be a news outlet, and did not turn out to be staffed by journalists. It was, unfortunately, social media apps.

The reason why many of the digital-native outlets of the aughts and 2010s are now gone or seriously diminished is because people didn’t develop a loyalty to any particular one of these startups, they developed a loyalty to the platforms that delivered those stories and the communities on those platforms: once Facebook, then Twitter, now a wide array of different Twitter-like successors and streaming platforms such as YouTube and Twitch. The news first reported by professional journalists ends up sliced and diced and resurfaced and echoed in some form across billions of feeds on innumerable platforms, some of which you and I have likely never heard of. With the time of easy money gone, we see some news outlets continuing to try and squeeze out the dregs from investors, promising novel newsroom uses of AI or a supposedly savvy editorial position that tells the money-havers exactly what they want to hear, regardless of its grounding in reality.

TPM, fortunately, is different, and it is why we’ve been able to survive as long as we have. We know we’re not going to change the news industry, and we don’t need to. We rely on you, our community of readers. We’re not making some grab for the attention of the social media-scrolling masses. Sure, we’ll take it, but we don’t need it. We have something fairly unique here: a loyal readership and a gradually growing group of members with whom we are deeply connected.

This is why we come to you periodically and ask you to support us. It’s that time now, so please, if you have the resources to do so, we hope you will contribute.

What you get in return is not a tote bag, and not (or not just) a warm fuzzy feeling for having supported us and made us happy. We’re a news outlet doing something unique: community based, community sponsored national political journalism. We are not funded by Wall Street or Silicon Valley, and we do not need to come up with contrivances to keep those masters of the universe sending us their cash. We are funded by you, the people who read us and find us valuable. It’s great! We are proud to be part of this experiment, one that continues year after year.

Harris’ Campaign Is Working—Get Used to It

I’m reading through a Puck newsletter, sent out under the heading “The Vibes Election.” Some of this is similar to what I discussed in yesterday’s Backchannel — Happy v. Mad, etc. But most of it zeroes in on the idea that Harris’ campaign is all vibes and no substance, a sugar high, something that can’t last. Will it be enough to carry her to Election Day? Here’s one snippet.

Put another way: Vibes, baby! Harris has not outlined any specific economic agenda, speaking only in generic terms about corporate greed, standing with labor unions, protecting Social Security and Obamacare, and fighting for the middle class. She is framing the election simply as “the choice about what direction this country will go in”—conveying an agreeable set of center-left values against Trump rather than a 10-point plan for this or a white paper for that.

Continue reading “Harris’ Campaign Is Working—Get Used to It”