A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll finds that 70% of New Jersey residents want Sen. Bob Menendez to resign. Just 16% want him to serve out his term.
This is when you’re holding on to office to trade it for something in a plea bargain.
Not Sure Jim Jordan Even Knows Where Things Stand
I’ve been assisting my colleagues Kate Riga and Emine Yücel remotely as they run around Capitol Hill the last two days trying to get a semblance of an answer to the whys and the hows behind House Republicans’ government-halting charade. You’d think in editing all their work and writing up some of their interview clips, I’d have a better sense of House Republicans’ and Jim Jordan’s strategy here than the layman. But I don’t.
Continue reading “Not Sure Jim Jordan Even Knows Where Things Stand”Rudderless House Republicans Fail To Elect A Speaker, Again
House Republicans voted for speaker again this afternoon, giving Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) another shot after he fell well short of the gavel Tuesday. While the congressman from Ohio managed to pull a couple detractors from Tuesday’s vote over to his side, a handful of members who supported him yesterday voted for someone else today, leaving him with fewer votes after the second round than he got during the first.
TPM’s Kate Riga and Emine Yücel are both reporting from Capitol Hill. Follow our live coverage below:
Podcast Coming Tomorrow
This week’s podcast will come one day later than usual. So don’t expect it today but it will be on your devices tomorrow afternoon.
Fog of War, Rush to Judgment and the Day After
I have no ability to evaluate grainy videos or make sense of what different blast patterns look like. But I’ve spent several years developing lists of open source intelligence and forensics analysts who are consistently credible. You’ve seen some of this in the various Twitter lists I sometimes post here. Credible doesn’t mean always right, of course. By credible in this case I mean analysts who are highly knowledgeable in one relevant domain, use an empirical framework for analyzing videos, open source data, etc., and have a proven track record of the appropriate level of caution and skepticism in drawing conclusions. Many of these people come out of the Bellingcat world, others got started (at least publicly) analyzing the Syrian and Ukraine conflicts. It’s actually remarkable what people not drawing on any state or property “intelligence” can demonstrate with overlapping provenance-proven video evidence, geolocation, satellite photography, open source weapons information, tracking data and more.
I watched this group very closely overnight (even at the expense of not getting much sleep) as more videos and data emerged about the hospital blast in Gaza and from what I can tell none of these people think the evidence points to an Israeli bomb as the source of the blast.
Continue reading “Fog of War, Rush to Judgment and the Day After”The House GOP Slo-Mo Trainwreck Enters Its Third Week
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
Behold The Chaos
Most of the time, Morning Memo tries to provide you with a complete snapshot of the current state of play on the biggest stories of the day. The past few days that’s become nearly impossible, because of the fluid, uncertain, and chaotic nature of the House GOP.
Without a process to follow, or a consensus around which to build things, or any particular ideological flavor to the breakdown, each day is an open-ended exercise in personal advancement, score-settling, and posturing leading nowhere.
Yes, at some level it’s true that the House GOP is ignoring the nation’s real business in the midst of their own internal meltdown, but the dynamics of the current situation are the same as has bogged down the conference from policymaking, dealmaking, and normal legislating for a long time now. There’s no real reason to think that once they’re over this hump – whenever that may be – that we’d get anything approaching normal in the aftermath.
How The (First?) Vote Went
Of the 432 votes cast, the tally for speaker was as follows:
Jeffries: 212
Jordan: 200
Scalise: 7
McCarthy: 6
Zeldin: 3
Garcia: 1
Emmer: 1
Cole: 1
Massie: 1
It’s notable that the anti-Jordan votes weren’t just vulnerable members. Appropriations Committee Chair Kay Granger (R-TX) voted against him.
‘Revenge Of The Squishes’
Politico’s Rachael Bade: “Turns out the moderates are vertebrates, after all.”
He’s Not Wrong
What’s Next?
The House is scheduled to reconvene at 11 a.m. ET today. Another speaker vote is the current plan, though that may not happen until after some housekeeping votes. And in truth there’s a decent chance another speaker vote may not happen at all.
Jordan may actually lose more members in today’s expected vote than he did yesterday, according to some reports. Scalise allies seems particularly incensed by how things have gone and by the tactics Jordan has used (though Jordan’s side denies it).
Jordan does stand to gain at least two votes: one pro-Jordan member who was absent yesterday and another member who voted for McCarthy yesterday out of loyalty but has said he will switch to Jordan on subsequent ballots.
It’s not clear what upside there would be for Jordan or the GOP conference to hold another vote in which he is sure to lose – which is one reason why they punted until today for a follow vote. But then again that was also true before yesterday’s vote and Jordan forced it anyway.
Quote Of The Day
The days of just, ‘Oh, this is our person, everybody’s just going to rally’—those days are over.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who voted for Jordan
How Did This Happen?
I’ll say it again: I need someone to explain to me how Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), an OG Tea Party crazy, is now being legit treated as a voice of reason:
Good Read
WaPo: How Hannity, Bannon and others on the right helped fuel GOP speaker chaos
‘Dumbass’
Israel-Gaza Watch
- President Biden landed in Tel Aviv overnight, where he suggested the hospital explosion in Gaza wasn’t the fault of the Israelis: “Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team.”
- The hospital blast killed 471 people, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, though that number has not been independently confirmed:
- In reaction to the hospital calamity, Jordan called off the summit meeting scheduled for Wednesday afternoon among Biden, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
- Street protests continued in Arab countries in the aftermath of the hospital blast.
- Beyond the public finger-pointing between Israel and the Palestinians, significant skepticism has emerged among experts about circumstances of the hospital blast. I should note that many experts are suggesting that forensics and various intel sources should be able to determine with a reasonable level of certainty the likely cause of the blast. It will just take time to make those determinations.
Curious …
Special Counsel Jack Smith has withdrawn a subpoena for records from the Trump-backed PAC Save America, suggesting Smith is scaling back in some ways his investigation into the fundraising that was done around the Big Lie.
This Is How It’s Done
A great analysis of the hottest summer on record for Houston, the nation’s fourth largest city, from the good folks at Space City Weather.
More than the scorching high temperatures, I remain awed by what has happened to daily low temperatures. Here’s a particularly illuminating stat from their analysis:
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Failed Michigan GOP Guv Candidate Sentenced To Prison On Jan 6 Charges
Let’s hop back to another lifetime for a second.
Back in May 2022, my former TPM colleague Matt Shuham was one of the first to report on the ever-widening fraudulent signature scandal that engulfed the Republican primary in the state’s gubernatorial race.
Continue reading “Failed Michigan GOP Guv Candidate Sentenced To Prison On Jan 6 Charges”Jim Jordan Forces His Colleagues To Go On Record And Comes Up Short
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Freedom Caucus founding chairman and professional antagonist, forced his colleagues to go on record on the House floor Tuesday afternoon for a first round of votes in the speakership election. What he got in return was an icy reality check.
After receiving just 200 votes in the first round — even fewer than former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the first of his embarrassing 15-round election — it became unclear how the Ohio Republican would proceed. There were reports circulating around the Hill and on social media that Jordan would force a second vote before the end of the day. But around 5:00 p.m. ET it was announced that Jordan would take another stab at the speakership in a vote Wednesday morning, instead.
TPM’s Kate Riga and Emine Yücel were on the Hill today following Jordan’s chaotic attempt to lead an unruly party and will be back again tomorrow. Catch up on our coverage below:
‘This Is The Moment’: Some House Republicans Push To Expand McHenry’s Power Amid Speakership Circus
After yet another speaker nominee failed to get 217 votes on the House floor Tuesday, some House Republicans are eyeing a new way out of their self-induced dysfunction.
It would involve expanding the powers of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) had tapped at the beginning of the term to fill in temporarily, if he, for whatever reason, could no longer serve. While electing a permanent speaker remains elusive for the conference, a McHenry who can do more than preside over a series of failed speakership elections has piqued some interest.
Continue reading “‘This Is The Moment’: Some House Republicans Push To Expand McHenry’s Power Amid Speakership Circus”It’s A Threat! Judge Chutkan Explains Trump Gag Order
Donald Trump was hit with a gag order on Monday thanks in part to a judge who understands how the former president manipulates technology and communications to bully people into silence.
Continue reading “It’s A Threat! Judge Chutkan Explains Trump Gag Order”