What To Look For When Aileen Cannon Takes Up The MAL Case Today

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

It’s All About Flipping Nauta

The proceedings today in the Mar-a-Lago case won’t be available in real time, so let me set the stage for you and give you a solid way of evaluating what happens.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon is resuming the hearing over the conflicts of interest facing Walt Nauta defense counsel Stan Woodward. It is scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET.

I went into considerable detail in yesterday’s Morning Memo about what prosecutors are ostensibly after here: They’re trying to smoke out and resolve any conflicts of interest so that defendants can’t later cite those conflicts on appeal and get their convictions overturned.

Woodward is playing fast and loose, and Cannon is giving him an obscene amount of leash. She’s treating the conflict of interest problem like an adversarial issue that she’s refereeing, but the problem is that the conflicts go to the heart of whether it’s a fair adversarial proceeding in the first place. It’s not up to prosecutors to resolve that problem. It’s up to the judge.

While prosecutors have good reason to want to get the conflicts ironed out now, there’s obviously another reason this matters: They want to flip Nauta. It’s probably a long shot. He appears joined at the hip with Trump. His legal representation is being paid for by Trump. His livelihood is dependent on Trump.

But here’s the key: The last Trump employee who was given a chance to speak to independent counsel quickly decided to stop covering up for Trump, dropped Woodward as counsel, and with new counsel in tow practically ran to the DC grand jury to withdraw his earlier false testimony and provide new deeply incriminating testimony against Nauta and Trump.

Prosecutors want a chance to do the same with Nauta. I doubt they’re counting on flipping him, but they want that shot. Judge Cannon’s frankly ridiculous handling of this aspect of the case has stalled that effort, turned what should be a normal proceeding upside down, and generally made a hash of things.

I hope this steers you right for today’s hearing.

Sidney Powell Flips!

Arguably the biggest development in any of the Trump prosecutions in weeks: Sidney Powell’s decision to plead guilty in the Coffee County caper and to cooperate with Atlanta DA Fani Willis changes the legal landscape considerably.

The initial stage of jury selection begins today in the trial originally intended for Powell and Kenneth Chesebro. Now Chesebro will go it alone, barring any last-minute plea deal for him (he reportedly already rejected a plea offer). Jury selection begins in earnest Monday.

Powell’s conviction on six misdemeanor counts is a huge win for Willis, but I’m most intrigued by what impact Powell’s guilty plea has on Special Counsel Jack Smith’s work at the federal level. Since her guilty plea can be used against her by Smith, it’s hard for me to imagine her attorney not reaching out to Smith to try to negotiate a global deal. Still, we have no evidence that such a parallel deal was struck between Powell and Smith.

Either way, Powell’s cooperation spells bad news for Trump. She has already told Willis what she will testify to and provided documents.

It probably won’t be the last guilty plea in the Georgia RICO case.

Michigan Fake Elector Flips

A fake Trump elector in Michigan has agreed to cooperate with state prosecutors in return for the dropping of all charges against him.

Correction: I mistakenly cast this as a guilty plea in the original version of the post. All charges were dropped, and there was no admission of guilt. The error was mine.

Trump Is No Washington Or Lincoln

It looks like the Justice Department unleashed its considerable internal legal firepower in drafting this brief in the Jan. 6 case opposing Trump’s claims that the president enjoys absolute immunity from criminal prosecution.

Ooops …

Ryan Reilly: In its chaotic Jan. 6 probe, the FBI wrongly questioned a Biden staffer about Capitol pipe bombs

Never Say Never, But Then Again …

Yesterday was a very strange day on the Hill.

We came into the day promised another vote on Rep. Jim Jordan’s bid to become speaker. It never happened.

First the vote was supposed to be midday, then delayed, then maybe in the evening or even later. Nada.

There was a brief but short-lived push by Jordan and others to bestow more robust powers on Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC). It’s not clear if that was a genuine effort to unlock the House for a few weeks and get things moving, or an elaborate delay tactic by Jordan, or some combination of both. But it didn’t do much to maintain the faux suspense.

Despite Jordan’s lackluster performance on holding a vote yesterday, most of the media coverage was still in “poised for another vote” mode. It was hard not to feel led around by the nose by the end of the day.

Jordan is obviously trying to avoid admitting defeat or even appearing to have been defeated. On top of that, he has taken advantage of the unprecedented situation and the lack of any real sense of what the next step can or should be to keep everyone on tenterhooks – even though the reality seems pretty darn clear: He doesn’t have the votes.

Maintaining this false sense of suspense continued overnight and into this morning, with a planned 10 a.m. ET vote on speaker. Will that happen or get punted like yesterday’s? If it happens, will Jordan lose even more votes than he did last time?

Jordan himself appeared before cameras briefly a short time ago and seemed to implicitly confirm some of the reporting that he is prepared to force the issue through the weekend:  “Our plan this weekend is to get a speaker elected.”

A Wave Of Threats Against Members

The Jim Jordan speakership bid has uncorked right-wing extremism directed at fellow House GOPers, subjecting them to the same threats and harassment MAGA opponents and innocent bystanders have been experiencing for years.

  • CNN airs shocking voicemail to the wife of an unnamed GOP congressman from a Jim Jordan supporter: “We’re gonna be up your ass fucking nonstop.”
  • Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) received this email: “If I see your face, I will whip all the hair out of your head you scumbag.”
  • NYT: “The harrowing experiences have provided a window into just how ugly the political discourse in the United States has become, and how the hard right in particular has normalized violent threats and intimidation.”
  • Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO):

Good Read

Daily Beast: Solving the Mystery of George Santos’ Sham Campaign Treasurer

Israel-Gaza Watch

This Case Makes My Head Hurt

The Fifth Circuit is making a mess of the Louisiana redistricting case, but the Supreme Court isn’t quite prepared to clean it up just yet.

2024 Ephemera

  • Appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) won’t run to fill Dianne Feinstein’s seat.
  • Clarence Thomas benefactor Harlan Crow maxed out his campaign contributions to Cornel West.
  • The challenge for RFK Jr. is getting on the ballot in all 50 states.

Hate To See It

NYT: “The judge in Alex Jones’s bankruptcy case ruled on Thursday that he will not be allowed to use his Chapter 11 filing to evade paying more than $1 billion in verdicts to families of the Sandy Hook shooting.”

Up Is Down

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Speaker Race Back In Limbo As Republicans Shut Down Empowering McHenry

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was deposed over two weeks ago, and House Republicans still can’t elect a replacement.

Earlier today, the plan was to empower Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC), to work on giving him enough powers to make the House functional again — likely with Democratic help. That largely collapsed after a near-physical Republican conference meeting, when lots of them came out against the idea.

Now Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) — who, on net, lost votes from the first to second rounds of voting — is trying to sway the holdouts at the eleventh hour, and promising another vote tomorrow. His task is likely even more difficult now, after his mobilization of the right-wing media machine flooded the holdouts with threats.

TPM’s Kate Riga and Emine Yücel are both reporting from Capitol Hill. Follow our live coverage below:

Sen. Laphonza Butler Won’t Run To Permanently Fill Feinstein’s Seat

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

It remains dizzyingly unclear when we will have a functioning government again but we do have some news out of the California Senate race for late-Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat:

Continue reading “Sen. Laphonza Butler Won’t Run To Permanently Fill Feinstein’s Seat” →

Listen To This: Biden’s Biggest Climate Win Is In Danger

Posted on by Jackie Wilhelm

Kate chats with Vox Senior Reporter Rebecca Leber about how the Inflation Reduction Act is faring a year after passage, and the threats that lie ahead as Republicans try to take back the White House.

Continue reading “Listen To This: Biden’s Biggest Climate Win Is In Danger” →

Jackson: Supreme Court Does Not Endorse 5th Circuit’s ‘Extraordinary’ Interference In Louisiana Map Case

Posted on by Kate Riga

The Supreme Court on Thursday declined to revive a district court hearing to craft a new Louisiana congressional map that the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals had unceremoniously canceled in late September. 

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote in concurrence to clarify that the Supreme Court was not greenlighting the Fifth Circuit’s interference in the case — which experts told TPM was bizarre.

Continue reading “Jackson: Supreme Court Does Not Endorse 5th Circuit’s ‘Extraordinary’ Interference In Louisiana Map Case” →

Democrats Find McHenry More Palatable Than Jordan, But Wait For Republicans To Make First Move 

Posted on by Kate Riga

As House Democrats streamed out of their Thursday caucus meeting, they made two things clear: Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) does not repulse them the same way Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) does, and they are content waiting for Republicans to detail what exactly empowering McHenry would look like.

Continue reading “Democrats Find McHenry More Palatable Than Jordan, But Wait For Republicans To Make First Move “ →

The Inside Story of How Jim Jordan Broke the Model, Didn’t Become Speaker and Decided That was Fine

Posted on by Josh Marshall

There’s an aspect of the Jim Jordan Speaker Drama that hasn’t gotten enough attention. It’s really the central element of the story. Over the years I’ve argued that the post-2010 GOP caucus operates by a consistent set of informal rules. What looks like drama and dysfunction is actually in its own way a very stable and functional system.

The congressional party is controlled and run by the hard right minority variously called the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus. But they are a bit too hot for national public consumption. They also rely on the idea that their far right policy agenda has broad public support but is held back by a corrupt/bureaucratic establishment. For both of these reasons a system was developed in which this far right group runs the caucus, but from the background, while it is nominally run by a mainstreamish Republican leader. Under John Boehner, Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy this basic dynamic remained more or less the same. It works for everybody because the Freedom Party calls the shots while the party maintains broad electoral viability via figureheadish leadership.

Continue reading “The Inside Story of How Jim Jordan Broke the Model, Didn’t Become Speaker and Decided That was Fine” →

Aileen Cannon Just Got Played Big Time

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Duped!

The defense team in the Mar-a-Lago case is running circles around U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon and not only does she not see it but she’s encouraged, enabled, and sanctioned it.

In a remarkable turn of events, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team submitted a new filing in the case late yesterday. It comes ahead of tomorrow’s resumption of the hearing on the conflicts of interest that defense counsel Stan Woodward has in representing Walt Nauta.

I don’t think you need much of the backstory except for this: Woodward has been denying for months that he has any conflict of interest even though he’s represented both Nauta and other witnesses key to the case who are adverse to Nauta, i.e., their testimony will hurt him. Cannon has played along, dragging out what should be a routine process for months now.

With that backstory, Smith’s team alerted Cannon that Woodward for the first time yesterday conceded to them that he won’t cross examine at trial the witnesses adverse to Nauta. If this is true … wow! Woodward didn’t explicitly acknowledge to prosecutors that he has a conflict of interest – after denying it all this time – but the implication is clear.

This doesn’t resolve the issue entirely by any means, but it marks a significant shift in Woodward’s posture and leaves Cannon badly exposed for not having taken a firm hand in this matter but instead hectoring prosecutors.

Still unresolved:

  • Will Nauta sufficiently waive these conflicts of interest?
  • Will Cannon disqualify Woodward, or give Nauta a chance to confer with independent counsel before he waives his rights?
  • Will Woodward, as he apparently has told prosecutors, seek to keep them from using his name when they draw out witness testimony at trial? (Remember one of the key witnesses flipped as soon as the judge in DC provided him with counsel other than Woodward.)
  • If Woodward continues representing Nauta, can he undermine the testimony of his former clients in his closing argument?

All of that should be ironed out in tomorrow’s hearing, but with Cannon who knows. She should see by now that she’s been played. It’s led to months of delay in resolving this basic issue.

Prosecutors not so subtly reminded Cannon in the latest filing that it is up to her to ensure that the trial is a fair adversarial proceeding and not undermined or compromised by inadequate representation of counsel working under crippling conflicts of interest.

Hello! Will Cannon get the message?

‘The Blood Will Be On His Hands’

Jeffrey Toobin: Donald Trump Is Going to Get Someone Killed

‘I Like Them Old!’

With the first trial in the big Georgia RICO case set to begin Monday, Atlanta DA Fani Willis is keeping it real:

She referenced Trump’s recent incendiary lie that she was in a relationship with a young gang member she was prosecuting.

“I think the craziest is I was sleeping with a gang-banger. I’m like, a 17-year-old? Like, what? I like them old! What are you talking about?” she said to laughter from the crowd, according to a recording obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Jim Jordan Is Twisting In The Wind

A second overwhelming defeat in the vote for speaker of the House has left Jim Jordan with no clear path forward. The House will reconvene this afternoon. Notionally, Jordan could push for another vote, but the slippage in his vote total yesterday augurs further erosion with each subsequent vote. That’s the certainly the message anti-Jordan members are trying to amplify.

In a highly fluid unprecedented situation, here’s the latest:

  • Politico: Jordan detractors believe it gets ‘a lot worse’ for him on a third speakership ballot
  • Punchbowl: “Put simply, the votes aren’t moving toward Jordan, they’re moving away from him. He has no path to the speaker’s chair — and most Republicans understand that. In fact, there are many in Jordan’s circle who have taken to asking reporters what the Ohio Republican is thinking by staying in the race.”
  • Politico: As Jordan wobbles, House GOP eyes potential next speaker candidates
  • Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) claims to have received death threats after she switched her vote from Jordan to Approps Chair Kay Granger (R-TX) on the second ballot.
  • There’s still some noise about expanding Rep. Patrick McHenry’s powers as speaker pro tempore for a few weeks so that the House can conduct basic business.
  • Aaron Blake: The non-MAGA GOP finds some backbone — against Jordan and intimidation

‘We … Made Mistakes’

An extraordinary admission from an American president:

Israel-Gaza Watch

  • U.S. intel raced out its conclusion that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza that reportedly killed hundreds of civilians.
  • Biden secures humanitarian accommodation for Gaza from Israel but the details and practical effect remain murky.
  • The number of hostages reported to have been taken by Hamas in the Oct. 7 attack rose by four, to 203.
  • State Department official resigns over arms transfers to Israel.

Fetterman v. Menendez

I’m generally partial to Senate collegiality and the formal niceties that accompany it, but I have little doubt that it also serves as a roadblock to reform and a shield for incumbents.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) ain’t playing that game when it comes to Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and his indictment on public corruption charges that go directly to national security concerns:

The two senators also got into an in-person tiff as they rode the escalator in opposite directions to the Capitol from the Senate subway area Tuesday morning. According to sources, Fetterman told Menendez that Tuesday would be a great day to resign. 

Menendez reacted, telling Fetterman that he is hanging onto this issue too closely, echoing a line he told HuffPost a night earlier. Fetterman mockingly responded that he is “consumed” by Menendez’s indictment.

I Love This So Much

Two Philadelphia Eagles football players go to their first MLB game, a Philadelphia Phillies playoff matchup:

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