Aileen Cannon Just Got Played Big Time

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Duped!

The defense team in the Mar-a-Lago case is running circles around U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon and not only does she not see it but she’s encouraged, enabled, and sanctioned it.

In a remarkable turn of events, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team submitted a new filing in the case late yesterday. It comes ahead of tomorrow’s resumption of the hearing on the conflicts of interest that defense counsel Stan Woodward has in representing Walt Nauta.

I don’t think you need much of the backstory except for this: Woodward has been denying for months that he has any conflict of interest even though he’s represented both Nauta and other witnesses key to the case who are adverse to Nauta, i.e., their testimony will hurt him. Cannon has played along, dragging out what should be a routine process for months now.

With that backstory, Smith’s team alerted Cannon that Woodward for the first time yesterday conceded to them that he won’t cross examine at trial the witnesses adverse to Nauta. If this is true … wow! Woodward didn’t explicitly acknowledge to prosecutors that he has a conflict of interest – after denying it all this time – but the implication is clear.

This doesn’t resolve the issue entirely by any means, but it marks a significant shift in Woodward’s posture and leaves Cannon badly exposed for not having taken a firm hand in this matter but instead hectoring prosecutors.

Still unresolved:

  • Will Nauta sufficiently waive these conflicts of interest?
  • Will Cannon disqualify Woodward, or give Nauta a chance to confer with independent counsel before he waives his rights?
  • Will Woodward, as he apparently has told prosecutors, seek to keep them from using his name when they draw out witness testimony at trial? (Remember one of the key witnesses flipped as soon as the judge in DC provided him with counsel other than Woodward.)
  • If Woodward continues representing Nauta, can he undermine the testimony of his former clients in his closing argument?

All of that should be ironed out in tomorrow’s hearing, but with Cannon who knows. She should see by now that she’s been played. It’s led to months of delay in resolving this basic issue.

Prosecutors not so subtly reminded Cannon in the latest filing that it is up to her to ensure that the trial is a fair adversarial proceeding and not undermined or compromised by inadequate representation of counsel working under crippling conflicts of interest.

Hello! Will Cannon get the message?

‘The Blood Will Be On His Hands’

Jeffrey Toobin: Donald Trump Is Going to Get Someone Killed

‘I Like Them Old!’

With the first trial in the big Georgia RICO case set to begin Monday, Atlanta DA Fani Willis is keeping it real:

She referenced Trump’s recent incendiary lie that she was in a relationship with a young gang member she was prosecuting.

“I think the craziest is I was sleeping with a gang-banger. I’m like, a 17-year-old? Like, what? I like them old! What are you talking about?” she said to laughter from the crowd, according to a recording obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Jim Jordan Is Twisting In The Wind

A second overwhelming defeat in the vote for speaker of the House has left Jim Jordan with no clear path forward. The House will reconvene this afternoon. Notionally, Jordan could push for another vote, but the slippage in his vote total yesterday augurs further erosion with each subsequent vote. That’s the certainly the message anti-Jordan members are trying to amplify.

In a highly fluid unprecedented situation, here’s the latest:

  • Politico: Jordan detractors believe it gets ‘a lot worse’ for him on a third speakership ballot
  • Punchbowl: “Put simply, the votes aren’t moving toward Jordan, they’re moving away from him. He has no path to the speaker’s chair — and most Republicans understand that. In fact, there are many in Jordan’s circle who have taken to asking reporters what the Ohio Republican is thinking by staying in the race.”
  • Politico: As Jordan wobbles, House GOP eyes potential next speaker candidates
  • Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) claims to have received death threats after she switched her vote from Jordan to Approps Chair Kay Granger (R-TX) on the second ballot.
  • There’s still some noise about expanding Rep. Patrick McHenry’s powers as speaker pro tempore for a few weeks so that the House can conduct basic business.
  • Aaron Blake: The non-MAGA GOP finds some backbone — against Jordan and intimidation

‘We … Made Mistakes’

An extraordinary admission from an American president:

Israel-Gaza Watch

  • U.S. intel raced out its conclusion that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza that reportedly killed hundreds of civilians.
  • Biden secures humanitarian accommodation for Gaza from Israel but the details and practical effect remain murky.
  • The number of hostages reported to have been taken by Hamas in the Oct. 7 attack rose by four, to 203.
  • State Department official resigns over arms transfers to Israel.

Fetterman v. Menendez

I’m generally partial to Senate collegiality and the formal niceties that accompany it, but I have little doubt that it also serves as a roadblock to reform and a shield for incumbents.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) ain’t playing that game when it comes to Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and his indictment on public corruption charges that go directly to national security concerns:

The two senators also got into an in-person tiff as they rode the escalator in opposite directions to the Capitol from the Senate subway area Tuesday morning. According to sources, Fetterman told Menendez that Tuesday would be a great day to resign. 

Menendez reacted, telling Fetterman that he is hanging onto this issue too closely, echoing a line he told HuffPost a night earlier. Fetterman mockingly responded that he is “consumed” by Menendez’s indictment.

I Love This So Much

Two Philadelphia Eagles football players go to their first MLB game, a Philadelphia Phillies playoff matchup:

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Jordan CryMore-onistes

Let me try to briefly up date you on where Jim Jordan’s zombie Speakership seems to be. As you know, he lost a Speakership vote Tuesday with 20 Republicans in opposition and then lost another yesterday with 22 votes in opposition. In the second outing, a couple switched to supporting him but more flipped in the other direction. After that he remained committed to forcing a third vote even though there was a strong consensus that his losing ground in the second vote meant his bid was over.

A few assumptions and developments are operating behind the scenes.

Continue reading “Jordan CryMore-onistes”

Podcast Still Coming Tomorrow

I said yesterday that this week’s podcast would be coming Thursday, today, not Wednesday. Well, that was fake news. Like I said yesterday, it’s coming tomorrow. But today that means Friday not Thursday. Just to give you a little behind the scenes: Kate is one of our two Capitol Hill reporters. So the gist is we’re a bit hostage at the moment to Jim Jordan’s whims and tantrums as he keeps trying to hold votes in his increasingly fantastical Speakership bid. So bear with us, we’ll have the podcast to you soon.

Holy Crap

A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll finds that 70% of New Jersey residents want Sen. Bob Menendez to resign. Just 16% want him to serve out his term.

This is when you’re holding on to office to trade it for something in a plea bargain.

Not Sure Jim Jordan Even Knows Where Things Stand

I’ve been assisting my colleagues Kate Riga and Emine Yücel remotely as they run around Capitol Hill the last two days trying to get a semblance of an answer to the whys and the hows behind House Republicans’ government-halting charade. You’d think in editing all their work and writing up some of their interview clips, I’d have a better sense of House Republicans’ and Jim Jordan’s strategy here than the layman. But I don’t.

Continue reading “Not Sure Jim Jordan Even Knows Where Things Stand”

Rudderless House Republicans Fail To Elect A Speaker, Again

House Republicans voted for speaker again this afternoon, giving Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) another shot after he fell well short of the gavel Tuesday. While the congressman from Ohio managed to pull a couple detractors from Tuesday’s vote over to his side, a handful of members who supported him yesterday voted for someone else today, leaving him with fewer votes after the second round than he got during the first.

TPM’s Kate Riga and Emine Yücel are both reporting from Capitol Hill. Follow our live coverage below:

Fog of War, Rush to Judgment and the Day After

I have no ability to evaluate grainy videos or make sense of what different blast patterns look like. But I’ve spent several years developing lists of open source intelligence and forensics analysts who are consistently credible. You’ve seen some of this in the various Twitter lists I sometimes post here. Credible doesn’t mean always right, of course. By credible in this case I mean analysts who are highly knowledgeable in one relevant domain, use an empirical framework for analyzing videos, open source data, etc., and have a proven track record of the appropriate level of caution and skepticism in drawing conclusions. Many of these people come out of the Bellingcat world, others got started (at least publicly) analyzing the Syrian and Ukraine conflicts. It’s actually remarkable what people not drawing on any state or property “intelligence” can demonstrate with overlapping provenance-proven video evidence, geolocation, satellite photography, open source weapons information, tracking data and more.

I watched this group very closely overnight (even at the expense of not getting much sleep) as more videos and data emerged about the hospital blast in Gaza and from what I can tell none of these people think the evidence points to an Israeli bomb as the source of the blast.

Continue reading “Fog of War, Rush to Judgment and the Day After”

The House GOP Slo-Mo Trainwreck Enters Its Third Week

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Behold The Chaos

Most of the time, Morning Memo tries to provide you with a complete snapshot of the current state of play on the biggest stories of the day. The past few days that’s become nearly impossible, because of the fluid, uncertain, and chaotic nature of the House GOP.

Without a process to follow, or a consensus around which to build things, or any particular ideological flavor to the breakdown, each day is an open-ended exercise in personal advancement, score-settling, and posturing leading nowhere.

Yes, at some level it’s true that the House GOP is ignoring the nation’s real business in the midst of their own internal meltdown, but the dynamics of the current situation are the same as has bogged down the conference from policymaking, dealmaking, and normal legislating for a long time now. There’s no real reason to think that once they’re over this hump – whenever that may be – that we’d get anything approaching normal in the aftermath.

How The (First?) Vote Went

Of the 432 votes cast, the tally for speaker was as follows:

Jeffries: 212
Jordan: 200
Scalise: 7
McCarthy: 6
Zeldin: 3
Garcia: 1
Emmer: 1
Cole: 1
Massie: 1

It’s notable that the anti-Jordan votes weren’t just vulnerable members. Appropriations Committee Chair Kay Granger (R-TX) voted against him.

‘Revenge Of The Squishes’

Politico’s Rachael Bade: “Turns out the moderates are vertebrates, after all.”

He’s Not Wrong

What’s Next?

The House is scheduled to reconvene at 11 a.m. ET today. Another speaker vote is the current plan, though that may not happen until after some housekeeping votes. And in truth there’s a decent chance another speaker vote may not happen at all.

Jordan may actually lose more members in today’s expected vote than he did yesterday, according to some reports. Scalise allies seems particularly incensed by how things have gone and by the tactics Jordan has used (though Jordan’s side denies it).

Jordan does stand to gain at least two votes: one pro-Jordan member who was absent yesterday and another member who voted for McCarthy yesterday out of loyalty but has said he will switch to Jordan on subsequent ballots.

It’s not clear what upside there would be for Jordan or the GOP conference to hold another vote in which he is sure to lose – which is one reason why they punted until today for a follow vote. But then again that was also true before yesterday’s vote and Jordan forced it anyway.

Quote Of The Day

The days of just, ‘Oh, this is our person, everybody’s just going to rally’—those days are over.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who voted for Jordan 

How Did This Happen?

I’ll say it again: I need someone to explain to me how Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), an OG Tea Party crazy, is now being legit treated as a voice of reason:

Good Read

WaPo: How Hannity, Bannon and others on the right helped fuel GOP speaker chaos

‘Dumbass’

Israel-Gaza Watch

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) hugs US President Joe Biden upon his arrival at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport on October 18, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. Biden landed in Israel on October 18, on a solidarity visit following Hamas attacks that have led to major Israeli reprisals. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
  • President Biden landed in Tel Aviv overnight, where he suggested the hospital explosion in Gaza wasn’t the fault of the Israelis: “Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team.”
  • The hospital blast killed 471 people, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, though that number has not been independently confirmed:
  • In reaction to the hospital calamity, Jordan called off the summit meeting scheduled for Wednesday afternoon among Biden, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
  • Street protests continued in Arab countries in the aftermath of the hospital blast.
  • Beyond the public finger-pointing between Israel and the Palestinians, significant skepticism has emerged among experts about circumstances of the hospital blast. I should note that many experts are suggesting that forensics and various intel sources should be able to determine with a reasonable level of certainty the likely cause of the blast. It will just take time to make those determinations.

Curious …

Special Counsel Jack Smith has withdrawn a subpoena for records from the Trump-backed PAC Save America, suggesting Smith is scaling back in some ways his investigation into the fundraising that was done around the Big Lie.

This Is How It’s Done

A great analysis of the hottest summer on record for Houston, the nation’s fourth largest city, from the good folks at Space City Weather.

More than the scorching high temperatures, I remain awed by what has happened to daily low temperatures. Here’s a particularly illuminating stat from their analysis:

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Failed Michigan GOP Guv Candidate Sentenced To Prison On Jan 6 Charges

Let’s hop back to another lifetime for a second.

Back in May 2022, my former TPM colleague Matt Shuham was one of the first to report on the ever-widening fraudulent signature scandal that engulfed the Republican primary in the state’s gubernatorial race.

Continue reading “Failed Michigan GOP Guv Candidate Sentenced To Prison On Jan 6 Charges”