Since late last year, Iceland has been experiencing volcanic events that began with the formation of large fissures in the earth that temporarily displaced inhabitants of the town of Grindavik. On January 14, 2024, residents were hurriedly evacuated once again as an eruption began at a fissure on the outskirts of town. A protective berm had been constructed to divert the lava around the town, and it worked remarkably well. But soon, another, smaller, fissure within the protected area began to erupt, damaging three residences. The country’s president, Gudni Th. Johannesson, said in a televised address Sunday that “a daunting period of upheaval has begun on the Reykjanes Peninsula,” where a long-dormant volcanic system has awakened, and that the country was battling “tremendous forces of nature.”
Cracks in the ground causing evacuations in Grindavik, Iceland
Getty Images caption: GRINDAVIK, ICELAND – DECEMBER 21: Cracks in the ground are seen following recent volcanic activity in Grindavík, the town was evacuated due to the eruption that happened four kilometres north on December 21, 2023 in Grindavik, Iceland. After weeks of seismic activity around Grindavik that led to the evacuation of some 4,000 residents, a volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula, with lava bursting from a crack about 3.5km long. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
Hole in the ground caused by volcanic activity
Getty Images caption: GRINDAVIK, ICELAND – DECEMBER 21: Cracks in the ground are seen following recent volcanic activity in Grindavík, the town was evacuated due to the eruption that happened four kilometres north on December 21, 2023 in Grindavik, Iceland. After weeks of seismic activity around Grindavik that led to the evacuation of some 4,000 residents, a volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula, with lava bursting from a crack about 3.5km long. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
Crack in the ground in December 21, 2023
Getty Images caption: GRINDAVIK, ICELAND – DECEMBER 21: Cracks in the ground are seen following recent volcanic activity in Grindavík, the town was evacuated due to the eruption that happened four kilometres north on December 21, 2023 in Grindavik, Iceland. After weeks of seismic activity around Grindavik that led to the evacuation of some 4,000 residents, a volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula, with lava bursting from a crack about 3.5km long. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
People watching plumes of smoke rising near Grindavik on Janurary 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: People standing near Keflavik, Iceland, watch as the plumes of smoke rise during a volcanic eruption near Grindavik, on January 14, 2024. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Sergei GAPON / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images)
Emergency crew building a protective wall as lava approaches the town of Grindavik on January 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: Aerial view taken on January 14, 2024 shows emergency personnel using diggers to build a protective wall trying to prevent flowing lava to reach the centre of the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcaninc eruption. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
Diggers fill in the last hole in a protective wall on January 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: Diggers fill in the last hole in a protective wall trying to prevent flowing lava to reach the centre of the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcaninc eruption, on January 14, 2024. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
Lava and billowing smoke near Grindavik on January 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: TOPSHOT – Lava explosions and billowing smoke are seen near residential buildings in the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcanic eruption on January 14, 2024. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
Lava explosions near residential buildings in Grindavik on January 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: Lava explosions are seen near residential buildings in the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcanic eruption on January 14, 2024. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
Lava after a volcanic eruption near Sundhnukagigar, about 4 kilometers northeast of Grindavik
Getty Images caption: REYKJANES, ICELAND – JANUARY 14: An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption located close to Sundhnukagigar, about 4 kilometers northeast of Grindavik town of Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland on January 14, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Public Defence / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ariel view of lava approaching Grindavik on January 14, 2024
Getty Images caption: TOPSHOT – Billowing smoke and flowing lava are seen in this Icelandic Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management , January 14, 2024, handout image during an volcanic eruption on the outskirts of the evacuated town of Grindavik, western Iceland. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Icelandic Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management / AFP) (Photo by ICELANDIC DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT/AFP via Getty Images)
lava spewing from a volcano on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula on January 14, 2024, near Grindavik
Getty Images caption: GRINDAVIK, ICELAND – JANUARY 14: In this handout photo provided by the Iceland Coast Guard, lava is seen spewing from a volcano on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula after its eruption on January 14, 2024 near Grindavik, Iceland. On Sunday morning, a new eruption happened north of Grindavik in southwestern Iceland, causing residents to evacuate due to increased seismic activity around 03:00 GMT. The alert level is now at “emergency,” indicating a potential threat to people, communities, property, or the environment. (Handout photo by the Icelandic Coast Guard via Getty Images)
Grindavik on January 15, 2024 as the volcanic activity slowed
Getty Images caption: A drone is capturing the town of Grindavik during the eruption in Grindavik, Iceland, on January 15, 2024. On Sunday morning, a new eruption is occurring north of Grindavik in southwestern Iceland, prompting residents to evacuate due to increased seismic activity around 03:00 GMT. The alert level is currently at ”emergency,” indicating a potential threat to people, communities, property, or the environment.
The protective walls near Grindavik worked to divert lava
Getty Images caption: An aerial view taken on January 15, 2024 shows a lava stream near a greenhouse facility of biotechnology company ORF Genetics in Grindavik, southwest of the capital Reykjavik, after a volcanic eruption. Volcanic activity in southwest Iceland appears to have eased, authorities said on January 15, a day after lava from an eruption flowed into the fishing town of Grindavik, engulfing several homes. A volcanic eruption began early on January 14 near Grindavik, southwest of the capital Reykjavik, and two fissures opened up. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
View of lava stream engulfing several homes on January 15, 2024
Getty Images caption: An aerial view taken on January 15, 2024 shows a lava stream near houses in Grindavik, southwest of the capital Reykjavik, after a volcanic eruption. Volcanic activity in southwest Iceland appears to have eased, authorities said on January 15, a day after lava from an eruption flowed into the fishing town of Grindavik, engulfing several homes. A volcanic eruption began early on January 14 near Grindavik, southwest of the capital Reykjavik, and two fissures opened up. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images)
A fissure in Grindavik, Iceland that had stopped erupting on Janurary 15, 2024
Getty Images caption: REYKJANES, ICELAND – JANUARY 15: An aerial view of the fissure, which had stopped erupting but claimed three houses in the town of Grindavik in Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland on January 15, 2024. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Texas has seized a portion of the U.S.-Mexico border in a bizarre, tragic, and high-stakes bid to claim for itself a power which has long been federal: control of the international border.
Roughly 110,000 voters turned out for last night’s caucuses. That compares to 187,000 in 2016. (2012 and 2008 were closer to last night’s numbers 122,000 and 120,000, respectively.) But that’s still the lowest turnout in more than a decade and dramatically lower than the last contest in 2016. To me the turnout number is much less significant than the result, which I discussed here.
But it’s not insignificant.
There are a few possible explanations. One is that it was incredibly cold last night. But let’s be honest: winters in Iowa are always cold as fuck. They’re used to it. More significant, Republicans could be pretty confident that the outcome of the caucus and the overall nomination battle are both pretty much settled in Trump’s favor. That is a big disincentive to show up. Those explanations, especially the second, get you pretty close to a good explanation.
For something like a year I’ve been predicting that Donald Trump is absolutely positively going to be the 2024 nominee. I was predicting that back when a lot of people really thought that Ron DeSantis was going to at least give Trump a run for his money. I don’t make confident predictions unless I’m certain there’s little chance of being wrong. But I must tell you that this result simply isn’t the victory most reporting makes it out to be.
The Republican version of the Iowa caucus is simply a vote, carried out by less formal means. Each participant writes down a name and that gets counted — no real caucusing. The final result shows Trump getting 51% of that vote.
That is not just a plurality win, the metric customarily used to judge this contest. It’s actually an absolute majority. Barely. (DeSantis has 21.2% and Haley 19.1%.) But everyone now recognizes that Trump is running as the de facto incumbent. Certainly he’s running as the universally recognized leader of the GOP. And yet he has only barely managed a majority in a state which — unlike, say, New Hampshire — is pretty tailor-made for his politics. To put that characterization into context, while Iowa is today is a fairly red state, it has long had a reputation as a state which has a very liberal Democratic Party and a very conservative GOP. The Iowa GOP caucus electorate especially is made up of a high percentage of conservative evangelical voters. It’s overwhelmingly rural. By any fair measure, 51% of those voters is underwhelming.
Donald Trump is on the verge of becoming the GOP nominee for the presidency for the third straight election. What might have seemed like a historical blip in 2016 that was remedied by Trump’s general election defeat in 2020 is now an eternal black mark on the Republican Party.
Hijacked by Trump, purged of its traditional middle-of-the-road corporate conservatives, and transformed into a cult of personality, the Republican Party is unrecognizable as the party of Lincoln. Gone are the Bushes, Cheneys, and Romneys. In are the worst group of scoundrels, hacks, hangers-on, and would-be authoritarians this nation has ever seen.
Whatever quaint and out-dated notions remained that Iowa’s Midwestern conservatism and its rural and highly educated populace would serve as an important early filter in the nominating process can be put to rest.
A majority of Iowa Republican caucus-goers went for Trump after the travesties of the Trump presidency: the failed response to the COVID pandemic, the indignity of losing to Joe Biden, and the insurrection at the Capitol, among so many others.
The Also-Rans
I’m going to steer clear of the over-analysis of the second and third place finishers, the phantom that is “momentum,” and other tea-leaf reading in the midst of the Trump storm. This is all about Trump, and no other storyline merits more than passing consideration. Semafor put it well this morning, calling it a “dream scenario” for Trump: “A dominant performance, a divided field bitterly fighting for scraps, and little sign of consolidation behind any of them.”
WSJ: $6 Trillion in Taxes Are at Stake in This Year’s Elections
The pro-Democratic group American Bridge 21st Century is planning a $140 million ad campaign using testimonials to remind women and working-class voters why they voted against Trump in 2020.
Quote Of The Day
The central issue in the 2024 Presidential election will be whether there be a Presidential election in 2028
Trump supporters are asked: “Would you rather have four years of Donald Trump as a dictator or four years of President Biden re-elected?”
E. Jean Carroll Gets Another Whack At Trump
The four-times indicted frontrunner for the GOP nomination, fresh off his big win in Iowa, is expected in federal court today in New York for the (second) trial of E. Jean Carroll’s defamation claim against him for denying he raped her. Trump’s liability was already established in the first jury verdict, so this trial will be focused only on Carroll’s damages. In recent days, Carroll implored the judge not to let Trump engage in the kinds of stunts he pulled in the NY state judge-tried fraud case.
Trump made a last-ditch effort to delay the trial for a week, citing the death of his mother-in-law. The judge denied the request, noting that Trump had managed to schedule a campaign stop in New Hampshire tomorrow.
Highly Endorse
It’s time for the courts to stop giving Trump special treatment. To stop walking delicately and gingerly lest he claim foul play when he is merely subjected to procedures anyone else in his position would be held accountable to. The courts, charged with delivering justice, need to stop being afraid of Trump.
In a late-night ruling Friday, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon denied Special Counsel Jack Smith’s motion to impose a deadline on Donald Trump to assert an advice of counsel defense in the Mar-a-Lago documents case. With trial set for May, Cannon said it was premature to force Trump to assert the defense. Smith can refile the motion later, but it’s not clear what time frame Cannon considers proper. All signs point to Cannon abandoning the May trial date and pushing the trial until after the November election. But she’s slowrolling it rather than acting transparently.
Trump Miscellany
Oregon Supreme Court declines to rule on Disqualification Clause case against Trump, preferring to wait until the U.S. Supreme Court weighs in.
The Justice Department announced it would seek the death penalty for the man accused of killing 10 Black people in a 2022 shooting spree at a Buffalo grocery story.
A long fissure opened outside the protective berm hurriedly constructed to protect the town of Grindavík, which was evacuated in November and re-evacuated in haste over the weekend. The berm worked remarkably well at diverting a lava flow around the town. But a few hours later, a second shorter fissure opened inside the protective wall and sent lava to the edge of town, where three houses were destroyed.
You can see the main fissure in the background in the photo below, with lava diverting along a line that runs off the left of the photo. The fissure that opened up nearly in town is the dark slash in the center of the photo:
A drone is capturing the town of Grindavik during the eruption in Grindavik, Iceland, on January 15, 2024. On Sunday morning, a new eruption is occurring north of Grindavik in southwestern Iceland, prompting residents to evacuate due to increased seismic activity around 03:00 GMT. The alert level is currently at ”emergency,” indicating a potential threat to people, communities, property, or the environment.
REYKJANES, ICELAND – JANUARY 15: An aerial view of the fissure, which had stopped erupting but claimed three houses in the town of Grindavik in Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland on January 15, 2024. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
REYKJANES, ICELAND – JANUARY 15: An aerial view of the fissure, which had stopped erupting but claimed three houses in the town of Grindavik in Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland on January 15, 2024. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)
About a half hour after the Iowa caucuses got underway Monday, multiple networks plus the Associated Press had called the race for Trump.
With most of the vote counted, Trump maintains an expected mammoth margin on his competitors. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley hover within a couple points of each other, DeSantis having the slight edge.
Keep an eye on how the national press covers this. The White House, as you know, has been under immense pressure to offer concessions to address the continuing large number of migrants coming to the U.S.-Mexico border. Now there’s a bipartisan compromise bill in the Senate. Last night Majority Leader Steve Scalise said that bill is DOA in the House. But Speaker Johnson said something more specific and revealing. He refused to bring up the bill and according to Jake Sherman of Punchbowl said “Congress can’t solve border until Trump is elected or a republican is back in the White House.”
We hear a lot of fears these days about civil war or major political unrest in the United States. It’s less clear precisely how something like this would happen. There’s no lack of polarization and anger. But how precisely does it come about? Despite the blue and red maps we show on TV screens, U.S. politics is highly polarized by region even within most states. Something happened in Texas yesterday that struck me as a possible leading edge of some form of it.
Under the direction of Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Texas has made recent moves to try to take over certain aspects of patrol and enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border. This is of course primarily a political move. It’s for show. But the actions assert new rights or powers which are fraught with the potential for abuse and possible used for a sort of slow-motion insurrection. This weekend things went to a new level.
One of the single most influential figures in the American Civil Rights Movement, Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. helped organize and inspire people across the country to take non-violent action in the fight for equality.
MLK addressing a crowd in 1965
Original caption: MONTGOMERY, AL – MARCH 25: Dr Martin Luther King Jr speaking before crowd of 25,000 Selma To Montgomery, Alabama civil rights marchers, in front of Montgomery, Alabama state capital building. On March 25, 1965 in Montgomery, Alabama. (Photo by Stephen F. Somerstein/Getty Images)
MLK at time of his trial in 1960
King was fully acquitted. Original caption: Rev Martin Luther King Jr (center left) at time of his trial in front of Court House with others. (Photo by Donald Uhrbrock/Getty Images)
MLK speaking at a student rally in 1960
Original caption: Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr speaking at student rally against discrimination, Montgomery, Alabama. (Photo by Donald Uhrbrock/Getty Images)
MLK with his family in 1960
Original caption: Civil Rights activist Rev Dr Martin Luther King Jr. and his wife Coretta, daughter Yolanda, 5, & Martin Luther III, 3, sitting together as they play piano in their livingroom, Atlanta, Georgia, 1960. (Photo by Donald Uhrbrock/Getty Images)
MLK giving a sermon at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta in 1960
Original caption: Civil Rights activist Rev Dr. Martin Luther King Jr gesturing during sermon at Ebenezer Baptist Church, Atlanta, Georgia, 1960. (Photo by Donald Uhrbrock/Getty Images)
MLK at the end of the Montgomery bus boycott in 1956
Original caption: American religious and Civil Rights leader Reverend Dr Martin Luther King Jr (1929 – 1968) stands in front of a bus at the end of the Montgomery bus boycott, Montgomery, Alabama, December 26, 1956. (Photo by Don Cravens/Getty Images)
MLK listening to the radio while leading the Alabama Civil Rights march in 1965
Original caption: March 1965: American clergyman and civil rights campaigner Martin Luther King Jr (1929 – 1968) listening to the radio whilst leading the Alabama Civil Rights march. On the left is his fellow clergyman and campaigner Ralph Abernathy (1926 – 1990). (Photo by William Lovelace/Express/Getty Images)
Headshot of Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. in his vestments in 1953
Original caption: circa 1953: Headshot of Reverend Martin Luther King Jr (1929 – 1968), American civil rights leader and pastor of the Dexter Avenue Baptist Church in Montgomery, Alabama, wearing his vestments. (Photo by Michael Evans/New York Times Co./Getty Images)
MLK and his speechwriter Clarence B. Jones in 1963
Original caption: American civil rights leader Rev Martin Luther King Jr (1929 – 1968) at a press conference at the AG Gaston Motel in Birmingham, Alabama, February 1963. Behind Luther King is his speechwriter Clarence B. Jones. (Photo by Ernst Haas/Ernst Haas/Getty Images)
MLK has a mug shot taken at a police station in Montgomery, Alabama, 1956
Original caption: American civil rights leader, Rev. Martin Luther King Jr wearing a 7089 sign across his chest for a mug shot at a police station house in Montgomery County, Alabama, following his arrest for directing a city-wide boycott of segregated buses, February 21, 1956 . (Photo by Don Cravens/Getty Images)
MLK receives the Nobel Prize for Peace from Gunnar Jahn
Original caption: 10th December 1964: American civil rights leader Martin Luther King (1929 – 1968) (left) receives the Nobel Prize for Peace from Gunnar Jahn, president of the Nobel Prize Committee, in Oslo. (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)
MLK and Rev. Ralph Abernathy
Original caption: ALBANY, GEORGIA: July 12, 1962, Rev Ralph D Abernathy, desegregation leader, with Martin Luther King Jr (2R) and Dr William G Anderson (R), after release of King and Abernathy from Albany jail. (Photo by Donald Uhrbrock/Getty Images)
MLK with a group in prayer prior to Selma, Alabama, march in 1965
Original caption: Civil rights leaders Martin Luther King Jr (left) and Ralph Abernathy (center, rear) kneel with a group in prayer prior to going to jail in Selma, Alabama. The group was arrested on February 1st after attempting to gain the right to vote. Following the prayer, the group peacefully marched to jail. (Photo by Bettmann Archive/Getty Images)
Just months into his dark horse speakership, Mike Johnson (R-LA) tries to scuttle across the same tightrope his predecessor toppled from, shepherding through the chamber, without sparking a mutiny, the bare minimum legislating Congress has to pass.
