Congrats On Your Bogus Impeachment, Champ

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

An Abuse Of Power

The GOP-led House finally got its act together enough to stage an impeachment performance last evening, claiming the scalp of Biden Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

The same three Republican members who stymied the effort last week voted against impeachment again, but Rep. Steve Scalise’s return from cancer treatment gave the Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) the critical vote he needed to complete the flimsiest impeachment in history:

  • no claims of high crimes or misdemeanors;
  • no evidence of wrongdoing or graft;
  • no shame in using impeachment to salve the hurt feelings of Donald Trump over his two impeachments and to boost Republicans’ signature election year issue: immigration xenophobia.

It’s totally appropriate to categorize these kinds of maneuvers by Republicans as performative or as playing politics or as engaging in political stunts. All true. But it’s also fundamentally an abuse of power. House Republicans are hikacking the levers of power that come with the offices they hold to advance their own partisan political aims and hold on to that power.

Not every example of an alignment between official acts and partisan political advantage is an abuse of power. But when you strip away any ostensibly objective motive for the official act, when you offer no pretense for the official act, when you’re only using the powers of the office to further your own political aims, when you stretch the law and the rules and bend them to your own grubby ends, you’re engaged in abuse of power. When, at the same time, you’re engaging in the wholesale breaking of government and institutions for the sake of it, all you’re left with is politics of the grimy, self-serving, and self-perpetuating variety.

A few additional notes:

  • Impeachment is dead in the Senate: The Democratic-controlled Senate is not going to muster a two-thirds vote to to convict Mayorkas and the proceedings may be truncated to save time.
  • Senate tied up: By rule, the impeachment trial will be the only Senate floor business until it is complete. It’s not exactly clear how that will dovetail with avoiding a government shutdown or dealing with any foreign aid bill that the House might kick its way.
  • For the history nerds: You may see Mayorkas’ impeachment described as both the first impeachment of a cabinet officer since 1876 and the first impeachment of a sitting cabinet officer ever. Both are true. William W. Belknap, secretary of war under Ulysses S. Grant was impeached by the House on March 2, 1876, but he had already tendered his resignation to Grant that morning, and Grant had accepted it. So unlike Mayorkas, Belknap was no longer in office when he was impeached.

Good Read

NYT: On Capitol Hill, Republicans Use Bigoted Attacks Against Political Foes

Pot Meet Kettle

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), one of the Senate negotiators on the failed Ukraine aid-border package, became so frustrated with Sen. Lindsey Graham’s shifting demands that she referred to him privately as a “chaos monster,” the WaPo reports

Quote Of The Day

At the NATO summit in 2018, [Trump] came very close to withdrawing from NATO right there at the summit. So each of these comments, as he makes them now over six years, to me simply reinforces that the notion of withdrawing from NATO is very serious with him. People say, “Well, he’s not really serious. He’s negotiating with NATO.” Look, I was there when he almost withdrew, and he’s not negotiating — because his goal here is not to strengthen NATO, it’s to lay the groundwork to get out.

Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton

Biden Condemns Trump’s Anti-NATO Remarks

In a White House appearance, President Biden blasted Trump for abandoning NATO to Putin: “Can you imagine a former president of United States saying that? The whole world heard it,” Biden said. “No other president in our history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator. Well, let me say this as clearly as I can: I never will. For God’s sake, it’s dumb. It’s shameful. It’s dangerous. It’s un-American.”

aNalySIs

May history not judge us only by the worst headlines of our era:

In case you had any doubt what is at stake in this election, the lede makes it clear:

It was always headed here, with President Joe Biden in his 80s and Donald Trump not far behind. But in the span of a few days, the wrinkled and sagging reality staring the nation in the face has become the defining issue of the 2024 campaign.

It’s certainly what we all remember about the election of 1864: The “wrinkled and sagging” visage of 55-year-old Abraham Lincoln versus the smooth complexion of 38-year-old Army Gen. George B. McClellan. Lincoln won and then we invented botox and here we are.

Dems Snag Santos Seat

Democrat Tom Suozzi won back the House seat on Long Island held by the fabulist George Santos until his ignominious exit from Congress. In a closely watched race that ended up being not particularly close, Suozzi is leading Mazi Melesa Pilip 54%-46% with 93% of the vote counted.

The biggest immediate impact of the Democratic win is to further tighten the GOP’s-already extremely narrow majority in the House.

‘This Very Foolish Woman’

Former President Donald Trump reacted to the GOP loss in the NY-03 by demeaning Republican nominee Mazi Melesa Pilip as “this very foolish woman.”

2024 Ephemera

The Next Installment In TPM’s Chesebro Series

The Ideas Man: How Chesebro’s Most Radical Theories Entered Trump Campaign Planning for Pence and Jan. 6

Trump Prosecution Watch

  • The Supreme Court gave Special Counsel Jack Smith until 4 p.m. ET on Feb. 20 to respond to Trump’s application to stay the proceedings in the immunity case.
  • NYT: Why the Case Against Fani Willis Feels Familiar to Black Women

Threats Against Federal Judges Double Since 2021

Reuters: “Serious threats to U.S. federal judges have more than doubled over the past three years, part of a growing wave of politically driven violence, according to U.S. Marshals Service data reviewed by Reuters.”

This Is Not A Drill

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One Thought

One thought on how this race turned out. As far as I know, not a single poll showed Pilip ahead. There were a few at the end that showed it close. But this was yet another race with a lot of junk or what we might call plain wrap polls. There were a couple polls I saw recently that had a modest single-point lead for Suozzi. But at least one of these and I think two also added a tighter screen of voters who were sure they were going to vote — slightly different from a standard “likely voter” screen. Those showed Suozzi moving into double digits. That made me pretty confident Suozzi was going to take this, for obvious reasons. The vibes world picked up a big Pilip surge in the final days. But that didn’t pan out.

That’s a Wrap

Okay, we finally got a first real batch of votes out of Nassau County. They confirm the story out of Queens. See the 9:40 p.m. update below. And now the AP has called it. Not sure where the final numbers will be. Nassau County takes a long time to report. But Suozzi wins this and it looks like it will be by a comfortable and perhaps even big margin.

Democrats Flip George Santos’ Old Seat, Cutting Into Republicans’ Slim House Majority

Tom Suozzi, a former congressman and Democrat, has won the New York special election for the seat left vacant when the House expelled George Santos in December. 

The Associated Press called his win, in the district Santos won by eight points in 2022, an hour after polls closed. His victory will afford Democrats a sigh of relief on multiple fronts. 

Continue reading “Democrats Flip George Santos’ Old Seat, Cutting Into Republicans’ Slim House Majority”

NY-3 Results

9:56 p.m.: The best indication I’ve seen so far that Suozzi’s winning this is I’m already seeing the first arguments about how a Suozzi win is probably bad news for the Democrats.

9:40 p.m.: So basically where we are now is that Queens is mostly in and Suozzi has significantly exceeded the benchmarks he needs there. But most of the district is in Nassau County. This is a contiguous district. So it wouldn’t make a lot of sense that one part of it would be dramatically different relative to the baseline than another. But it could be. So we need to see some totals out of parts of Nassau County to really be certain where this is going. But you’d absolutely want to be Suozzi right now rather than Pilip.

9:27 p.m.: Okay, still a ways to go but Suozzi seems to be exceeding the benchmarks he needed in Queens. There’s a lot we haven’t seen. There are very different parts of this district and we’ve got the same day vs early issue. So it’s early but these are some promising early numbers for Suozzi.

9:21 p.m.: You can see topline results on lots of news sites. But I just saw this link to a site by a data guy which is showing the results down at the precinct level, if that’s your thing.

9:20 p.m.: Please note that the early results are showing Democratic parts of Queens and early vote. So don’t put much stock in those early numbers.

9:10 p.m.: The polls just closed in the New York City-area special election to replace expelled congressman and freak George Santos. The district includes part of Queens and adjoining parts of the Nassau County, which makes up the western part of Long Island. As usual, I’m watching the unfolding commentary on my election night analysts Twitter list, which you can find here. (If you’re no longer or not on Twitter, you’re right. Twitter sucks. Don’t know what to tell ya. This is what I use it for these days.) As usual, there’s not much great polling and a ton of “vibes.”

One major wildcard today was that there was a big snowstorm that seemed to put a major dent in turnout for the first part of the day. Put an asterisk on that because people can just decide to show up later. And by most standards it wasn’t a very big storm. Where I live in Manhattan there’s barely any snow left on the ground at all. But early today there was a ton of slush. The relevant point is that Democrats seemed to be banking a lot of early vote. So there’s a chance that Republicans got burned by a knock on turnout from bad weather. The truth is we have no idea. We’ll know more soon enough.

McConnell Shouts Into The Void/Urges Johnson To Allow Vote On Ukraine Aid

A handful of Senate Republicans tried to be the adults in the room after Donald Trump convinced a good chunk of their party’s members of Congress to do nothing to address issues at the border so that he has something to whack President Biden with on the campaign trail. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was joined by 21 of his colleagues to help pass a $95.3 billion foreign aid package — without border provisions — early Tuesday morning, which includes crucial aid for Ukraine.

Continue reading “McConnell Shouts Into The Void/Urges Johnson To Allow Vote On Ukraine Aid”

Senate GOPs Call Origami Mike Johnson’s Bluff

Yesterday, as he was trying to threaten and bark Senate Republicans out of sending the House a foreign-aid-only supplemental spending bill, Speaker Mike Johnson said that he would not allow a vote on the bill because the House had not yet “received any single border policy change from the Senate…”

Continue reading “Senate GOPs Call Origami Mike Johnson’s Bluff”

Senate Delivers Foreign Aid Bill Into The Unreliable Hands Of Speaker Mike Johnson

Much to Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) chagrin, the Senate managed to pass a bundle of foreign aid early Tuesday morning. 

Continue reading “Senate Delivers Foreign Aid Bill Into The Unreliable Hands Of Speaker Mike Johnson”

Our Second Installment on the Chesebro Document Trove

Today we’re publishing the second installment in our series on the Ken Chesebro document trove. Today’s piece provides a detailed look at just where ideas like fake electors and the purportedly central role of then-Vice President Mike Pence came from. And far more than almost anyone seems to have realized they started with Ken Chesebro. Even ideas and strategies associated with the so-called “Eastman Memo” appear to have begun with him. In today’s piece Josh Kovensky provides never-before-reported details on how Chesebro found his way into the Trump orbit in the first days after Biden’s victory and how he became the key idea man behind what we might call Stop The Steal Thought.

Continue reading “Our Second Installment on the Chesebro Document Trove”