NY-3 Results

9:56 p.m.: The best indication I’ve seen so far that Suozzi’s winning this is I’m already seeing the first arguments about how a Suozzi win is probably bad news for the Democrats.

9:40 p.m.: So basically where we are now is that Queens is mostly in and Suozzi has significantly exceeded the benchmarks he needs there. But most of the district is in Nassau County. This is a contiguous district. So it wouldn’t make a lot of sense that one part of it would be dramatically different relative to the baseline than another. But it could be. So we need to see some totals out of parts of Nassau County to really be certain where this is going. But you’d absolutely want to be Suozzi right now rather than Pilip.

9:27 p.m.: Okay, still a ways to go but Suozzi seems to be exceeding the benchmarks he needed in Queens. There’s a lot we haven’t seen. There are very different parts of this district and we’ve got the same day vs early issue. So it’s early but these are some promising early numbers for Suozzi.

9:21 p.m.: You can see topline results on lots of news sites. But I just saw this link to a site by a data guy which is showing the results down at the precinct level, if that’s your thing.

9:20 p.m.: Please note that the early results are showing Democratic parts of Queens and early vote. So don’t put much stock in those early numbers.

9:10 p.m.: The polls just closed in the New York City-area special election to replace expelled congressman and freak George Santos. The district includes part of Queens and adjoining parts of the Nassau County, which makes up the western part of Long Island. As usual, I’m watching the unfolding commentary on my election night analysts Twitter list, which you can find here. (If you’re no longer or not on Twitter, you’re right. Twitter sucks. Don’t know what to tell ya. This is what I use it for these days.) As usual, there’s not much great polling and a ton of “vibes.”

One major wildcard today was that there was a big snowstorm that seemed to put a major dent in turnout for the first part of the day. Put an asterisk on that because people can just decide to show up later. And by most standards it wasn’t a very big storm. Where I live in Manhattan there’s barely any snow left on the ground at all. But early today there was a ton of slush. The relevant point is that Democrats seemed to be banking a lot of early vote. So there’s a chance that Republicans got burned by a knock on turnout from bad weather. The truth is we have no idea. We’ll know more soon enough.

McConnell Shouts Into The Void/Urges Johnson To Allow Vote On Ukraine Aid

A handful of Senate Republicans tried to be the adults in the room after Donald Trump convinced a good chunk of their party’s members of Congress to do nothing to address issues at the border so that he has something to whack President Biden with on the campaign trail. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was joined by 21 of his colleagues to help pass a $95.3 billion foreign aid package — without border provisions — early Tuesday morning, which includes crucial aid for Ukraine.

Continue reading “McConnell Shouts Into The Void/Urges Johnson To Allow Vote On Ukraine Aid”

Senate GOPs Call Origami Mike Johnson’s Bluff

Yesterday, as he was trying to threaten and bark Senate Republicans out of sending the House a foreign-aid-only supplemental spending bill, Speaker Mike Johnson said that he would not allow a vote on the bill because the House had not yet “received any single border policy change from the Senate…”

Continue reading “Senate GOPs Call Origami Mike Johnson’s Bluff”

Senate Delivers Foreign Aid Bill Into The Unreliable Hands Of Speaker Mike Johnson

Much to Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) chagrin, the Senate managed to pass a bundle of foreign aid early Tuesday morning. 

Continue reading “Senate Delivers Foreign Aid Bill Into The Unreliable Hands Of Speaker Mike Johnson”

Our Second Installment on the Chesebro Document Trove

Today we’re publishing the second installment in our series on the Ken Chesebro document trove. Today’s piece provides a detailed look at just where ideas like fake electors and the purportedly central role of then-Vice President Mike Pence came from. And far more than almost anyone seems to have realized they started with Ken Chesebro. Even ideas and strategies associated with the so-called “Eastman Memo” appear to have begun with him. In today’s piece Josh Kovensky provides never-before-reported details on how Chesebro found his way into the Trump orbit in the first days after Biden’s victory and how he became the key idea man behind what we might call Stop The Steal Thought.

Continue reading “Our Second Installment on the Chesebro Document Trove”

The Ideas Man

Some of the most radical legal theories which animated Donald Trump’s 2020 coup attempt filtered in from a once-obscure Wisconsin attorney. 

Ken Chesebro, an appellate lawyer and former acolyte of Harvard Law professor Larry Tribe, wound up as an ideas man for the Trump campaign’s last, most desperate grasps at power in late 2020 and early 2021, a trove of documents obtained by TPM shows. 

He was the architect of the fake electors plan and, emails, texts, and memos reveal, played a critical role in developing the idea that Mike Pence had the power to gum up Congress on Jan. 6. That, Chesebro claimed, would start a chain reaction that could somehow lead to Trump’s re-inauguration on Jan. 20. 

This article shows how some of the most radical ideas now associated with Jan. 6 filtered into the Trump campaign through three people who have been identified as unindicted co-conspirators listed in Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 indictment. They are Chesebro, law professor John Eastman, and a third figure: Boris Epshteyn, a longtime Trump surrogate, attorney, and political consultant who reportedly sent emails matching those sent by a figure described as co-conspirator 6 in the Smith indictment. 

The trove of documents obtained by TPM reveals the division of labor between the three. Chesebro was an ideas man. Many of those ideas were divorced from the prior 150 years of practice. But Chesebro outlined a vision of Pence’s role — and of stalemate in Congress — which gave the Trump campaign what it was looking for, with academic laurels to boot: a shot at delaying the formalization of Biden’s win for as long as possible. Epshteyn emerges in this picture as a coordinator, tasking Chesebro with preparing legal memos and connecting him with Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani. Per the emails, Eastman largely begins to propose ideas after the fake elector scheme had been implemented, and complements Chesebro’s ideas while editing them and taking them to Trump’s inner circle. 

TPM obtained the trove of documents after Michigan prosecutors received records from Ken Chesebro as part of their investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Chesebro supplied the documents, which include emails, texts, and legal memos, to prosecutors. It’s one tranche of evidence in a coup attempt that was much broader — it spanned months and involved hundreds of people — and was provided as Chesebro sought to avoid prosecution in Michigan. 

The documents provide a look at the anatomy of the portion of the coup attempt which proceeded not through mobs at the Capitol or via angry tirades, but in staid legal briefs and hidebound argumentation, and which cast Vice President Mike Pence in a leading role. 

Epshteyn, a prominent Trump surrogate since the 2016 campaign, has largely managed to maintain a lower profile than the other co-conspirators with respect to his involvement in the legal portion of the coup attempt. He wasn’t available for comment for this series. But the records show that he played a leading role in pulling together the legal theories that cast Jan. 6 as a critical date, asking Chesebro on Dec. 12 for “a memo on VP’s powers during Joint Session,” and, after receiving the now-infamous Eastman memo, asking about “steps that have to be taken BEFORE the 6th on this front?”

Chesebro also emerges from the emails and texts as a far more influential figure than previously understood. The records show that he provided substantial edits to the “Eastman memo,” which pushed the idea that Pence could unilaterally reject electoral votes on Jan. 6, and, in the three days before Jan. 6, peppered Epshteyn and Eastman with law review articles about the vice president’s ability to review and count electoral votes.

On a normal Jan. 6, according to the Electoral Count Act, the vice president opens the electoral votes submitted by the states. Before a 2022 reform went into effect, one senator and one representative objecting to a particular state’s results would lead to time-limited debate. 

Chesebro volunteered the idea that Pence could throw a wrench in this process by declining to open Biden votes from swing states, instead using the fake electoral slates that Chesebro convened as a reason to not open any votes from those states. He brought this idea to an eager Trump campaign weeks ahead of the climactic series of meetings before Jan. 6 where Eastman and Trump sought to pressure Pence into stoking as much chaos as possible. The possibility that Pence might decline to open Biden votes at all was an option that Chesebro described as a “fairly boss move.” 

The documents, combined with a 4.5 hour interview that Chesebro gave to Michigan prosecutors last year reviewed by TPM, also reveal for the first time that the group received an early “no” from Pence’s camp. Chesebro told prosecutors that he walked away from a call with a legal adviser to Pence one month before Jan. 6 with the distinct impression that Pence would not diverge from a single letter of the Electoral Count Act.

Despite that early demurral from Greg Jacob, Pence’s legal counsel, Chesebro spent the following weeks pushing for various ways that Pence could step beyond his authority to refuse to review electoral votes. 

‘Horatius at the Bridge’

Chesebro had entered the Trump campaign’s post-election legal maneuvering in November via a lawsuit challenging the count in his home state of Wisconsin, an effort he worked on alongside an old friend of his, a former judge named Jim Troupis. 

An early outline for “how leverage might be exerted in January” to force Congress to delay Biden’s certification in favor of examining claims of voter fraud came via a previously unreported Dec. 8 email to Troupis.

It contained a rough sketch of the pressure campaign that came to pass: the Electoral Count Act, which specified Pence’s role and time limits for debate, was unconstitutional and non-binding on Congress, Chesebro argued. It meant, he theorized, that if Republican senators and Pence cooperated, the Jan. 6 election certification vote could be extended for days, perhaps until Jan. 20, at which point the Senate could “resolve the impasse” by electing Pence vice president.

“By contrast, if he has the will to do it, Pence could stand as Horatius at the Bridge, and help ensure adequate time for debate,” Chesebro wrote in the Dec. 8 email, likening the vice president to an ancient Roman soldier who defended a bridge into Rome during a battle, becoming wounded but saving the city in so doing. 

But what might induce Pence to bring Roman virtue into Trumpworld? Chesebro wrote that Pence could find justification for his bold move in fake slates of electors that the Trump campaign could convene from swing states. These electors would create the pretext of disputed victories, allowing Pence to refuse to open the Biden electors and thereby buy Trump, potentially, days — or weeks — of time. 

The fake electors “would make Pence’s exercise of his power to set the pace of the count look much more reasonable,” Chesebro wrote. 

A quick call with Pence’s lawyer

Chesebro did not wait long to see how his theory would fare in reality. 

One day after Chesebro’s email to Troupis, Dec. 9, Epshteyn asked Troupis if he would be willing to prepare sample fake elector ballots for Wisconsin and, if he agreed, to do the same for six other states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. 

Troupis said yes, and forwarded Epshteyn’s email to Chesebro: could he or another Wisconsin attorney “do this for the other states?” 

“Oh, absolutely!!!” Chesebro replied. 

Chesebro, believing, as he put it in a Dec. 9 email to Troupis, that Pence was President of the Senate in 2016, arranged a call with Greg Jacob, Pence’s legal adviser. 

Three years later, Chesebro recounted the conversation to Michigan prosecutors during a proffer interview. 

“My immediate reaction was, well, I need to see the electoral votes that were cast in 2016. Thinking, well, the President of the Senate — that’s Pence! I’ll reach out to his staff and they’ll have copies,” Chesebro recalled in December 2023. “So I reached out, and eventually Greg Jacob, who’s the key lawyer for Pence, who ended up being in the meetings with Eastman, he and I had a nice discussion, and he explained that actually, the President of the Senate in 2016 was Biden, and they were in his papers, so we don’t have them, and it turned out they were online in the archive.”

Chesebro added that, after that flub, he “gently suggested” that Pence might decline to open the envelopes. Or, Chesebro recalled, that Pence might “skip the states in dispute,” and then “lump” them together at the end of the count to “create a critical mass of states that need to be considered separately, even though that would violate” the Electoral Count Act. 

“I detected no enthusiasm,” Chesebro told prosecutors of Jacob’s response. 

By that time, emails show, others on the original Wisconsin team had found the certificates Chesebro was searching for on the National Archives website. Three years later in an interview with Michigan prosecutors, Chesebro made his view of Pence clear: “Pence wouldn’t do anything anyway, because his lawyer wouldn’t even take a state out of order.”

Enter Boris

The next day, on Dec. 10, Troupis sent an email directing Chesebro to work with two Trump campaign attorneys: Justin Clark, a deputy campaign manager and attorney, and Boris Epshteyn, an attorney for the President. 

Throughout, Epshteyn took on a coordinating role for Chesebro. He introduced Chesebro to Rudy Giuliani, and helped facilitate the fake electors effort. Emails and texts from the days before Dec. 14 — the day the fake electors convened — show Epshteyn coordinating with Chesebro and a coterie of other Trumpworld figures including Mike Roman. 

The former mayor and Chesebro spoke on the phone on Dec. 10, the emails indicate. 

Epshteyn also began to ask Chesebro to prepare legal arguments about Pence’s role. 

In a Dec. 12 text exchange between Epshteyn, Chesebro, and Trump operative Mike Roman, Epshteyn asked Chesebro whether Pence had the “ultimate authority on which slate of electors should be chosen.” 

Chesebro, forever lawyerly, cited the election of George Washington, “numerous examples from the 1850s,” and an October 2020 column from John Yoo to give a qualified answer: yes. 

Hours later, Epshteyn told Chesebro that he had briefed Giuliani. He then said “a memo on VP’s powers during Joint Session would be vital to have,” reminding him in a separate thread about the memo and peppering Chesebro with questions once it came through.

In his exchange with Epshteyn and Roman, Chesebro also mentioned that days before, on Dec. 9, he held a phone call with Jacob, Pence’s counsel. Chesebro was sparse on details in the texts to Epshteyn and Roman. 

Three years later, Chesebro would tell prosecutors that he tailored his legal advice based on what Jacob told him: that Pence was not likely to do anything that Chesebro was proposing. 

Editing Eastman

It’s not clear whether Chesebro’s Dec. 12 Pence memo, ordered by Epshteyn, went anywhere. The idea that Pence should do anything other than count the votes does not surface again in the documents shared with prosecutors until Dec. 23, when law professor John Eastman begins to work on the idea with Chesebro in his now-infamous Eastman memo. 

Drafts in the trove show that Chesebro added chunks of text to the document highlighting Pence’s role, including a line citing “very solid legal authority” for the idea that Pence could both count and resolve “disputed electoral votes,” while “all the Members of Congress can do is watch.” 

TPM visualization of edits to the Eastman memo

“Do we need to add any steps that have to be taken BEFORE the 6th on this front?” Epshteyn asked in a Dec. 23 response. 

Chesebro, in a lengthy email 13 minutes later, replied that the Senate could hold hearings ahead of Jan. 6 on election fraud and the invalidity of the Electoral Count Act, but Eastman shot that idea down, writing: “Better for them just to act boldly and be challenged.” 

Three years later, Chesebro would tell Michigan prosecutors that he knew at least some of their work made it to Trump’s inner circle via Epshteyn, who he described as “funneling” it out to GOP senators. 

Chesebro spoke dismissively of Eastman in the interview with prosecutors, calling some of his legal ideas “ridiculous” and complaining that he had to send Eastman “basic law review articles on the Electoral Count Act and the 12th Amendment that he apparently had never looked at,” and that he was trying to “educate” Eastman about “stuff he was talking to the Vice President about.” 

As Jan. 6 approached, Chesebro showered Eastman and Epshteyn with law review articles, including one where, Chesebro wrote, the author “sketched how Republicans in a setting like the one we now have could plausibly rely on the view that the President of the Senate counts the votes, to totally gum up the count.”

He also forwarded Eastman the Dec. 13 memo on Pence’s powers which Epshteyn had told him to write, and sent both Eastman and Epshteyn a Twitter thread featuring law professor Jed Shugerman, which, he said, “features a good summary of the other side. Jed is a rare honest liberal scholar.”  

It’s not clear from the emails why Chesebro was sending these, though he told prosecutors in the interview three years later that Eastman had asked him to do so. Eastman met with Pence and Greg Jacob on Jan. 5, where he failed to persuade them to adopt the plan. 

Nearly all of the law review articles were focused on the critical question: does the vice president count? For them, it was abstract. For the rest of the world, it was very real. 

Candidate Trump Keeps Doing Putin’s Bidding And No One Bats An Eye

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Stepping Back For A Moment …

Trump threatening to throw NATO allies to the Russian wolf and the MAGA-driven House refusing to consider Ukraine aid are part and parcel of the same pro-Putin politics that have animated Trump for almost a decade now. It leaves Europe on edge, Ukraine more isolated, and Russia emboldened.

For my money, the Republican Party’s abandonment of its traditional defense of liberty abroad (as flawed and disastrous as it sometimes was in practice) is the biggest tectonic shift in American politics since WWII. Am I overstating it? I can’t think of another comparable seismic movement in the past 80 years.

Senate Passes Ukraine Aid

After an all-night session, the Senate passed the foreign aid bill earlier this morning that includes additional support for Ukraine. But on the House side, under pressure from Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has vowed not to let the Senate bill on the floor for a vote.

Quote Of The Day

Everyone should be scared as hell. Anybody who cares about American leadership, anyone who cares about protecting democracy, anybody who wants to take on authoritarians around the world should be scared to death by the fact that Donald Trump is telling us that if he was reelected president, he would throw our NATO allies to Putin.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)

Trump Goes To SCOTUS On Immunity

Trump’s far-fetched claim that the president has immunity from criminal prosecution has reached the Supreme Court.

We’re in a pretty weedy, procedural phase of this process. If you’re into that, University of Texas law professor Steve Vladeck has a handy cheat sheet on the options the court had for how to handle this case (scroll down to “III. What Happens at the Supreme Court?”).

New From TPM!

We are rolling out a series of stories this week based on (1) a trove of documents from December 2020-January 2021 turned over to Michigan prosecutors by one-time Trump codefendant Kenneth Chesebro; and (2) an audio recording of an interview Chesebro did last year with those same prosecutors, who are investigating the fake electors scheme in the state. TPM’s Josh Kovensky obtained both source materials and is the lead reporter on the series.

The series launched yesterday with:

  • An introductory piece: New Documents Reveal How Trump Lawyers Sought ‘Chaos’ to Force SCOTUS, or Whoever Else, to Anoint Trump.
  • The first installment: Docs Obtained by TPM Show Trump Lawyers’ Plan To Make Jan. 6 Last For Days On End

More coming today and tomorrow.

Fani Willis Gonna Have Some Explaining To Do

Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis failed in her effort yesterday to get the trial judge in the Georgia RICO case to cancel an evidentiary hearing scheduled for Thursday about her romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, one of the special counsels she hired.

In a preliminary hearing over various disputed subpoenas issued in advance of the Thursday showdown, the judge showed only passing interest in the romantic relationship itself but did find there to be enough of a factual question over whether Willis is financially benefitting from the prosecution to proceed with the evidentiary hearing.

“Because I think it’s possible that the facts alleged by the defendant could result in disqualification, I think an evidentiary hearing must occur to establish the record on those core allegations,” state court Judge Scott McAfee said in open court.

As for the relationship itself, McAfee said:

McAfee said the evidentiary hearing needs to establish “whether a relationship existed, whether that relationship was romantic or non-romantic in nature, when it formed and whether it continues.”

”And that’s only relevant because it’s in combination with the question of the existence and extent of any personal benefit conveyed as a result of their relationship,” he said.

Stay tuned.

Make Nepotism Great Again

Donald Trump is backing his daughter-in-law Lara Trump for co-chairwoman of the Republican National Committee. If Trump gets his way (and he will), she would serve alongside Michael Whatley, current chair of the North Carolina GOP, who would replace Ronna McDaniel as the RNC’s top official. In the expected RNC shakeup, Trump also wants longtime GOP operative Chris LaCivita to serve as the RNC’s COO, while retaining his role as co-campaign manager of the Trump campaign.

2024 Ephemera

  • NY-03: It’s special election day to fill the seat vacated by the serial fabulist George Santos – and the district is under a Winter Storm Warning.
  • CA-Sen: Ahead of the March 5 open primary, the California Senate candidates held their second TV debate last night.
  • AZ-Sen: Despite everything, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is backing Kari Lake (R).
  • Nikki Haley turns Trump’s attack on her husband into the centerpiece of her campaign.

RIP Bob Edwards

The longtime host of NPR’s Morning Edition has died at 76.

Funny?

Judge for yourself:

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

JD Vance’s Convoluted Pitch For Why Republicans Should Just Stop Legislating Until Trump’s President Again

Don’t tempt Donald Trump into getting himself impeached again.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who is among a handful of Trump allies believed to be vying for a potential Trump 2.0 Veepship, put out a memo Monday that makes several convoluted leaps in logic to pitch his colleagues on why the passage of a foreign aid bill could be harmful to a second Trump presidency.

Continue reading “JD Vance’s Convoluted Pitch For Why Republicans Should Just Stop Legislating Until Trump’s President Again”