One of the abiding themes of election coverage this year is that if there’s a second Trump presidency it will be more extreme, more organized and ideologically coherent and more prepared. There’s some level of psyching out the opposition going on here. But it’s still mostly correct. The major guideposts in the storyline are first that the various forces that went into Trumpism came into 2016 and 2017 not really realizing Trump was the guy. And that’s not surprising. He was Donald Trump after all, something our whole political system has difficulty remembering. Trump also staffed most of his administration with what for him were the equivalent of Hollywood leading men: ex-generals, legitimate multinational corporation CEOs, Wall Street sharks. They weren’t people Democrats like but they weren’t ideologues or even very in line with the goals Trump was pursuing by the end of his term.
The part of the story that is still too little articulated is how Trump’s personal and legal challenges galvanized and really created the whole thing. Trump’s desire for dictatorial power, to control the government in depth, to have the entire state mirror and obey his will grew from his frustration and fear of the various legal probes that stalked him. He thought when he became President that he had managed a hostile takeover of a rival company. The state and the country was his. So he could do whatever he wanted. But it didn’t turn out to be that way. And that’s how the drive to vanquish the “Deep State” was born. In other words, the kernel of Trump’s dictatorial, strongman ambitions were there from the start. But it was only the shock and ego injury of being faced with the difference between owning and governing that set him on the track, for entirely personal and self-protective reasons, of transforming the state to make it serve him in the way he wanted.
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss abortion ballot initiatives in Florida and elsewhere, and how they may affect the 2024 election.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
Republicans in the Nebraska legislature failed last night to pass a bill that would have awarded the state’s electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis – a change that would likely cost Joe Biden one vote in what could be a close 2024 election.
The Trump-backed move to change the rules of the game in Nebraska had been dormant for some time before it suddenly ramped up this week at the urging of right-wing gadfly Charlie Kirk.
The legislative session doesn’t end until April 18, so the measure could be brought back up for a vote again. But the procedural mechanics and the way it failed last night suggest this may be the end of the road for it. The legislator who facilitated bringing it to a vote tweeted last night that she thinks it’s over:
It won’t come up for a vote again. I know that’s what was promised, but there are no vehicles on which it could attach. Winner Takes All isn’t moving in 2024.
Both constitutional amendments passed this week by voters in Wisconsin grew of out bats*** election conspiracy theories. But it’s the second of the two referenda, which allows only designated election officials to administer elections, that is particularly worrying, experts tell TPM’s Khaya Himmelman.
Trump On Track To Stand Trial
The hush-money trial remains on track to start April 15 after the trial judge rejected Trump’s latest immunity argument.
Trump has filed new motions to recuse the judge and to delay the trial die to pretrial publicity, but neither is likely to go anywhere or derail the planned start of the trial.
Everyone is still digesting the filing by Special Counsel Jack Smith in the Mar-a-Lago case which failed to disguise prosecutors’ incredulousness at U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon:
Aaron Blake: Jack Smith puts Judge Aileen Cannon on notice
Harry Litman:
Profiles From Inside Trump World
NYT: Trump Defense Lawyer Todd Blanche Gambled a Gilded Manhattan Career to Represent Him
WaPo: How Steve Bannon guided the MAGA movement’s rebound from Jan. 6
NYT: Trump’s Bond Benefactor Don Hankey Earned Billions From Subprime Car Loans
An Iowa woman who tried to boost her husband’s unsuccessful 2020 congressional bid through a voter fraud scheme was sentenced by a federal judge to four months in prison.
The Shvartsman brothers plead guilty in Trump Media insider-trading scheme.
Ya Don’t Say?
One of the brothers just referenced above, Michael Shvartsman, makes a cameo in this new piece from The Guardian: “Donald Trump’s social media company Trump Media managed to go public last week only after it had been kept afloat in 2022 by emergency loans provided in part by a Russian-American businessman under scrutiny in a federal insider-trading and money-laundering investigation.”
2024 Ephemera
NBC News: Several Trump supporters involved in Jan. 6 are running for office this year
Politico: Democratic tactics against RFK Jr. are rattling his campaign
NYT: Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.
AP: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) recovering from blood clot surgery.
White House Still Thinks Ukraine Aid Is Doable
Politico: “For all their frustration with the painstakingly slow pace in the House, administration officials are privately hopeful their approach could result in Congress starting to move on an aid package later this month.”
The Etta James Soundtrack Is Perfect
I tend to be wary of post-disaster videos flying around on social media, but this one seems well verified (here, for example):
I flew to Pittsburgh yesterday to surprise my son on his 21st birthday with a bottle of Scotch that I bought the day he was born.
Back then, I figured the hardest part would be keeping the bottle intact for 21 years, but it turned out to be lot easier than keeping him in one piece. After his last two years – broken pelvis, broken femur, broken spine, and broken brain across two different traumatic accidents – that whiskey tasted so, so good.
Thanks for indulging me a brief personal celebration.
On Wednesday morning, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake rocked Taiwan’s east coast during the morning rush hour. Search and rescue efforts are ongoing and have so far reported 9 people dead and about 900 injured. The quake caused landslides and damaged roads, bridges and tunnels. There is also substantial damage to both residential and business buildings. Taiwan experiences regular earthquakes, however the last one with comparable strength was a 7.7 magnitude in 1999.
Assessing damage to a community building
Taoyuan City Deputy Mayor Su Junbin inspects the Sanyuanjidi Community Building and Dazhi Citizen Activity Center in Bade District as at least four people were killed and hundreds of others injured during a magnitude 7.4 earthquake, which struck off Taiwan’s eastern coast on April 3, 2024. (Photo by Taoyuan City Government/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Damage to an elevated track for the New Taipei metro
An elevated track for the New Taipei Metro is damaged following an earthquake on April 3, 2024 in New Taipei, Taiwan. A major earthquake has hit the east coast of Taiwan with a magnitude of 7.3, the strongest on the island in 25 years. (Photo by Yang Chengchen/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)
Large crack appears in the road
Roads cracks at Taipingshan Park due to the earthquake. Taipingshan Park will be closed for days due to cracks in the road. (Photo by Yilan Forestry & Nat. Cons. Agency/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Falling rocks from the hillside obstruct traffic
Rocks lay on the road and stop the traffic after falling off from a cliff. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)
Rocks from a landslide completely blocking a road
A view of rocks that fell and blocked a road. The Guguan Works Section sent out machines and tools to open the area, and called on people who wanted to enter the mountainous area to pay attention to the road conditions. (Photo by Taichung City Fire Department/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Falling rocks severly damage vehicles
A small passenger vehicle is seriously damaged after being hit by falling rocks on Zhonghengbian Road. (Photo by Guguan Public Works Section/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Uranus Building is severely tilted after a quake
The red building, called the Uranus Building, is partially collapsed. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
Rescuers work at a partially collapsed building
Rescuers work at a partially collapsed building. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
Rescue work at a partially collapsed building
Rescuers work at the partially collapsed building. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
Rescue workers searching the collapsed Uranus Building
A frame grab from a video taken on April 3, 2024 shows rescue workers searching for survivors at the damaged Uranus Building in Hualien. (Photo by STR/AFPTV/AFP via Getty Images)
Another view of the Uranus Building
The Uranus Building at Xuanyuan Road is tilted severely, at an angle of more than 60 degrees, and one person is still missing. The police immediately went to the rescue after receiving the report. (Photo by Hualien County Fire Department/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Fire department workers search a collapsed building
Kaohsiung Fire Department staff search inside a building. (Photo by Kaohsiung Fire Department/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Fire department workers carrying out search and rescue operations
Fire fighters carry out search and rescue operations among the rubble. (Photo by Ministry of Interior / Handout /Anadolu via Getty Images)
Suspended train services cause large crowds in Shenzhen North Railway Station
Passengers wait at the waiting hall of Shenzhen North Railway Station on April 3, 2024 in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province of China. (Photo by Chen Wen/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)
Cracked wall of a residential building
Walls of residential buildings crack after a powerful 7.3-magnitude earthquake rocked the entire island on April 3, 2024 in Hualien County, Taiwan. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)
The Republican National Committee was quick to make it known that it invested resources in ensuring the Wisconsin primary election on Tuesday evening went smoothly — so that voters could end up passing a referendum that is all but certain to make administering elections in the battleground state even harder and more confusing than it has been in the past.
Thanks to so many of you for writing in in response to yesterday’s post about SCTV. It hadn’t occurred to me that lots of the sketches and maybe whole shows are on YouTube. But of course that makes perfect sense. One of the interesting things about those notes is that many of you mentioned something that I didn’t say explicitly in my post but was likely implicit, which is that being a fan of SCTV was a bit like joining a secret club. About half way through it’s run it got picked up by NBC and then it ran I think after Saturday Night Live. That’s a helluva time slot. But still, that’s network TV. Before that, though, you had to be a bit of a freak to even have found it. It would only be available as a syndicated show on one of the non-affiliate channels picked up from whatever rando station produced it in Toronto. (And yes, for you youngs, this was back when there were like 5 to 7 channels total, the three affiliate channels, PBS and then two or three low budget local channels that probably ran mostly repeats of like I Love Lucy and Brady Bunch.) So it really was a bit like being in a secret club. The few, the elect, the viewers of a show that was legit funnier than SNL.
Here’s a recollection from TPM Reader PK … (and God is he right about John Candy)
What is and isn’t allowed in election administration in Wisconsin just became more unclear after voters approved a vaguely-worded GOP-backed constitutional amendment that will provide election deniers with more fodder for spreading conspiracy theories in 2024.
We have a cluster of new national polls out today. And they continue to show a bumpy and uneven but still clear movement in Joe Biden’s direction. Polls are complicated these days because there are so many different ones and more importantly the quality and reliability of those polls vary greatly. So we have five polls out since the 25th. And those are Marist (Biden+2); Data for Progress (Biden +1), Big Village (Biden +2); Morning Consult (Biden +2) and Trafalgar (Trump +3).
Rule For Me, Rule Against, But Above All Just RULE
In a new filing that bluntly confronts U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, Special Counsel Jack Smith takes a new tone of incredulousness and disdain for her mishandling of the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.
The issue at hand is her failure to have yet ruled on Donald Trump’s motion to dismiss based on his inane, unprecedented, and counterfactual reading of the Presidential Records Act. Instead of rejecting the argument out of hand, Cannon not only is entertaining it but ordered the two sides to propose jury instructions based on two different deeply flawed interpretations of the PRA.
That set up an nearly impossible challenge for Smith: How do you draft jury instructions that are so wrong on the law without looking like an idiot, undermining your own case, and pissing of the judge?
The answer: You can’t.
So Smith went all in, no longer trying to placate, educate, or hand-hold Cannon.
Smith ripped her interpretations of the PRA: “both of the Court’s scenarios are fundamentally flawed and any jury instructions that reflect those scenarios would be error.” He said her “legal premise is wrong” and her requested jury instructions “would distort the trial.”
Smith all but threatened to take Cannon up on appeal, urging her to rule promptly and not wait until a jury has been seated and thereby deprive the government of the opportunity to appeal. At this point, Smith would prefer an adverse ruling to no ruling at all: “Whatever the Court decides, it must resolve these crucial threshold legal questions promptly. The failure to do so would improperly jeopardize the Government’s right to a fair trial.”
Smith came as close as you can to mocking Cannon’s request for proposed jury instructions under her two scenarios, prefacing the insane exercise with language like:
Any jury instructions premised on the erroneous legal suppositions set forth in Scenario (a) would necessarily be deeply flawed.
and:
Like Scenario (a), proposed Scenario (b) rests on [an] erroneous and unsupported legal proposition … But Scenario (b) also incorporates additional layers of erroneous legal propositions at the core of Trump’s legally flawed and factually unsupported PRA defense.
For devotees of the Mar-a-Lago case, Smith also walked Cannon through the origin story of Trump’s PRA defense, which close followers know involves Tom Fitton, the non-lawyer head of the right-wing Judicial Watch.
How A Subprime Auto King Saved Trump’s Butt
Meet Don Hankey:
CNN: Billionaire whose firm backed Trump’s $175 million bond reveals how the deal came together
Bloomberg: Donald Trump’s Lenders of Last Resort Is A Subprime Auto King and Online Bank
WaPo: How a California billionaire known for auto loans provided Trump’s bond
There It Is
A 26-year-old New York man was charged late last month with sending death threats to state Attorney General Letitia James and Judge Arthur Engoron in connection with the civil fraud case against Donald Trump.
Trump’s Latest Recusal Nonsense
The trial judge in the New York hush-money-cum-election-interference case has already rejected Trump’s previous efforts to get him to recuse himself, so he’s unlikely to grant Trump’s latest request, just days before trial, that is built around Trump’s public attacks on the judge’s daughter.
Here We Go Again
A.B. Stoddard warns of Trump using a variation of the 2020 Big Lie playbook in 2024: “Trump can win on November 5, and polls show he likely would if the election were held today. But if Biden defeats him, the man who would trample the country for his ego can be expected to use even more extreme means than he did last time to flip the result—because he’s trying to stay out of jail.”
Nearly All Of Trump’s ‘Hostages’ Assaulted Law Enforcement
Just Security breaks down the charges against the Jan. 6 defendants still being held in the DC jail: A whooping 27 of the 29 inmates were charged or already convicted of assaulting law enforcement officers during the Capitol attack.
Breathtaking
Trump’s campaign speeches yesterday in the Midwest could easily be dismissed as more of the same, what you would expect, and not-much-new-to-see-here. They did strike familiar themes, but the level of villainy is truly reaching new levels.
Deeply racist and dehumanizing targeting of immigrants featured prominently in his Michigan speech, where he insisted on calling immigrants “animals.” Awful stuff.
But I was particularly struck by this hodgepodge of threats of authoritarian menace, due process violations, and illegal searches and seizures – all while surrounded by uniformed members of law enforcement:
Trump on deputizing local law enforcement officials to oversee mass deportations: "They know every bad kid … we're gonna work out a federal immunity for police" pic.twitter.com/bvxdkdNHXN
Note how Trump, under criminal indictment in four jurisdictions, not only surrounds himself with police but folds in his own quest for presidential immunity, offering to provide the same immunity to law enforcement. (He’s said this before, but I don’t think it’s been in this kind of setting.) It’s a remarkable dynamic, a case study in Orwellian language and authoritarian machinations.
I know it’s hard to see Trump’ clownishness as sophisticated. But this is multi-layered sophistication, whether conscious or not. He’s wrapping himself in the mantle of police, holding himself out as a law-and-order candidate, casting judges and prosecutors as criminals and himself as their victim, and thus positioning himself as aligned with police in the pursuit of criminals while benevolently promising (unconvincingly) that he will protect them with the same immunity he will win for himself.
The NYT profiles attorney Michael J. Gottlieb, who is famously using defamation claims to combat disinformation in cases ranging from Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss to Pizzagate.
‘Hate Lost’
Voters in a recall election in Enid, Oklahoma overwhelmingly removed a member of the City Council over his ties to white nationalists groups.
2024 Ephemera
WSJ poll: Trump leads Biden in six of seven swings states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Biden leads only in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin voters approved two GOP-driven constitutional amendments limiting civic participation in elections: (i) a ban on private funding in support of elections; and (ii) new limits on who can perform election-related duties.
A dormant bill in Nebraska to award the state’s electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis – and likely deprive Joe Biden of a single electoral vote – has new life after right-wing provocateur Charlie Kirk tweeted about it Tuesday afternoon and Donald Trump and the governor quickly lined up behind it.
Taiwan Quake Aftermath
HUALIEN, TAIWAN – APRIL 3: The Uranus Building at Xuanyuan Road in Hualien, Taiwan is tilted severely after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck off Taiwan’s eastern coast on April 3, 2024. (Photo by Hualien County Fire Department/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Abortion access advocates in Arizona may soon join similar activists in Florida, Maryland and New York in successfully securing a slot to ask voters about abortion protections on the state’s 2024 ballot.
