Thunderdomism’s Last Stand

According to some of the country’s most prominent news publications, the Democratic establishment moved quickly beginning Sunday afternoon to lock down the Democratic presidential nomination for Kamala Harris. Said Axios this morning: “It’s over. The Democratic establishment pushed out Biden and locked in Kamala Harris with astonishing speed and efficacy.” The Times published a piece entitled “How Democrats Learned to Love the Smoke-Filled Room Again.” But the idea that the ‘establishment’ anointed Kamala Harris and locked the nomination down for her turns the whole matter pretty much on its head. What locked in Harris was the overwhelming resistance of Democratic voters and activists to anyone else. It was national columnists and a significant number of Democratic elites who were pushing for the thunderdome primary.

A good bit of this was support for Harris herself. A lot of it was the fact that with the incumbent president and presumed nominee out and no time to run anything other than a fake primary Harris had democratic legitimacy on her side. Eighty million voters literally chose her in 2020 to be the person who took over for Joe Biden if he couldn’t serve. Democratic primary voters in effect reconfirmed that this Spring since Biden and Harris were again running as a package deal. Few things are more embedded in American political culture than the idea that vice presidents succeed presidents.

Continue reading “Thunderdomism’s Last Stand”  

The Petestakes: Everyone’s Clamoring For The Empty Seat At Harris’ Table

As TPM has previously reported, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team began vetting potential running mates almost immediately after President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the Democratic ticket. Now that Harris is officially the party’s presumptive nominee, that process is gaining steam — including apparent jockeying for the role from the candidates on the shortlist. 

Continue reading “The Petestakes: Everyone’s Clamoring For The Empty Seat At Harris’ Table”  

Barr’s ‘Highly Unusual’ Involvement in Roger Stone Sentencing Remains Murky

A new DOJ Inspector General report on a bizarre 2020 episode in which the Trump DOJ retracted its sentencing recommendation for Trump impresario Roger Stone reveals in part how much senior officials from that era don’t want to discuss it.

Continue reading “Barr’s ‘Highly Unusual’ Involvement in Roger Stone Sentencing Remains Murky”  

The Battle Is Joined

As we’ve noted a few times, we’re now in the midst of a race for each campaign to define Kamala Harris. What focus groups have shown in recent weeks is that many swing voters or marginal voters have vaguely negative impressions of Harris but basically know little about her. So she’s largely a blank slate for these and actually many other voters. That was always going to be very different for Biden and Trump. Voters know who they are and tend to have very fixed opinions about them. Not so for Harris.

The Trump campaign – actually one of its allied SuperPacs, as far as I can tell – went on the air last night with a series of attack ads in the Blue Wall states. (They’re probably appearing in other places too. But that’s where I have direct reports of their appearing.) They focus on what I believe is Harris’s key vulnerability. (Ed.Note: I’ve subsequently heard these ads may only be running in the Philly and Detroit metros – more information on that as I learn more.)

Continue reading “The Battle Is Joined”  

We Suddenly Have A Real Campaign On Our Hands

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘We Are Not Going Back’

It was so hard to imagine an incumbent president ditching his reelection campaign as late as the July before Election Day and equally difficult to envision a smooth passing of the baton to his vice president that I didn’t spend a lot of time thinking through what a Kamala Harris candidacy would look like. As a result, I probably underestimated how Kamala Harris would personally embody the themes of her campaign in ways that are particularly effective where Biden wasn’t in drawing contrasts with Trump.

The generational difference in age was obviously going to be helpful, but the chant she led at her first campaign rally since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee for president – “We are not going back” – is more than about relative youthfulness. It harkens to the dark Trump years and even obliquely references Biden, though not in a disrespectful way, while pivoting toward the future. It’s the same powerful message from Clinton 1992 and Obama 2008. She’s not only delivering that message, but like Clinton and Obama did before her, she stands as symbol of that message:

It’s easy to see her gender and racial diversity as potent attack points for Trump, but less obvious until you see her in action how her own story embodies the central 2024 issues of immigration, abortion, and tolerance. Joe Biden prided himself on enjoying the same embodiment of working-class whites in the industrial Midwest.

It’s hard to overemphasize how much of an advantage that personal embodiment provides, not just in enhancing her credibility or in giving her relevant experience or in resonating with particular constituencies. It means her mere presence speaks to those issues. She raises those issues just by showing up, which let’s her address them without even having to talk about them. She’s already checked those boxes implicitly, and it frees her up to address other issues explicitly.

We’re still mostly flying blind on the state of the race, pending more polls conducted since Biden’s withdrawal, so today’s headline that we have a real race on our hands isn’t a reference to the horse race but to the kind of race Harris is in a position to run now. Even at 59, Harris can run a race of generational change, especially against a 78-year-old former president trying to regain his lost office. Who wants to go back to that?

2024 Ephemera

  • Historic flood of cash powers Democratic campaign efforts since Biden withdrew.
  • WSJ: “The Trump campaign filed a long-shot challenge to block Vice President Kamala Harris from campaign funds in what used to be the joint Biden-Harris war chest, in a complaint filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.”
  • Schumer and Jeffries throw their support to Harris.
  • Politico: The GOP doesn’t want to talk about abortion. Harris wants to make them.

A Glimpse Of The Rancidness

House Republican leaders have reportedly urged their members to tone down the racist attacks on Kamala Harris, but since they won’t stop, you’re left to wonder if it’s a “have your cake and eat it, too” display of handwringing:

Practically Freudian

In a glorious on-air flub, Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow momentarily bungles the “E” in DEI as “exclusion”:

Biden To Give Oval Office Address

President Biden will deliver a nationally televised Oval Office address today at 8 p.m. ET, his first public remarks since ending his bid for re-election and throwing his support to Vice President Kamala Harris.

This is the fourth Oval Office address of Biden’s presidency, all within the past 14 months, and the second in 10 days.

Headline Laughs

In my next life, I want to come back devoid of skepticism. I can’t even imagine what that would be like, but it might look something like this: “Trump is back to insulting his opponents despite reported transformation”

Secret Service Wants Trump To Curtail Outdoor Rallies

In the wake of the attempt on Donald Trump’s life, the Secret Service is encouraging the Trump campaign not to hold outdoor events with large crowds.

Secret Service Director Resigns

Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned one day after she endured withering scrutiny from both parties in a House committee hearing.

Menendez Resigns

Convicted on federal bribery charges after a previous public corruption case against him ended in a hung jury, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) finally announced his resignation from the Senate, effective Aug. 20.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) promised to fill the seat quickly for the short remainder of Menendez’s term, which ends in January. It won’t be filled by Murphy’s wife, Tammy, who ran earlier this year in the Democratic primary to succeed Menendez.

One note: While Senate Democrats widely called for Menendez to leave, few Republicans senators joined the chorus because … it would have been awkward to force a convicted felon to resign when their own party’s presidential nominee is also a convicted felon. Fun times in the GOP.

Everything’s Fiiine

Sunday was the warmest day ever recorded by humans, according to the European climate service Copernicus.

In slightly (but only slightly) more positive news, greenhouse gas emissions may have peaked.

Nature Doing Its Thing

A hydrothermal eruption in Yellowstone National Park damaged a boardwalk and sent tourists scrambling but there were no reported injuries:

Here’s an aerial shot of the aftermath. The otherworldly clear blue pool at the bottom center of the photo is what the larger pool above it, now gray and opaque, looked like before the explosion:

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

Can You Help With This?

I want to send a huge thank you to the 1601 TPM Readers who have given so far to this year’s annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. We are currently at just over $212,000 and we really want to get to the halfway point of $250,000 toward our goal of $500,000 by the end of the first week of the drive. So if you’ve been considering contributing, can you take a moment and make it today? It is, I believe, a great and important cause, keeping TPM here, vital and robust for the future. If you’re ready, just click right here. We thank you, our whole team.

Expectations Setting

I wanted to do a short post on expectations setting now that we’ve absorbed the stunning and sometimes euphoric news of the last 48 hours. What will the polls say about this new race? What are Harris’s chances of winning? As my colleague David Kurtz has rightly stated, we’re truly flying blind here. There are so many unprecedented variables we can’t be certain about anything. My own best guess is that we should be not so much expecting but prepared to see Harris roughly where Joe Biden was before the late June debate. That speculation is based mostly on the fact that the polls have been primarily driven by the size of the Republican and Democratic voting blocks with a large percentage of voters supporting third party candidates.

Continue reading “Expectations Setting”