We now have three polls post-Biden departure: One with Harris 2 points up, another with Trump 2 points up and a third with Trump up by 1. I would call these numbers encouraging.
That’s basically tied in a race where the Dem likely needs a couple point lead to win. (Just where that margin to win the electoral college is is less clear than you may think.) We cannot stress enough that these numbers need to be taking as the most fleeting view of a highly fluid reality. There’s only been one day for any voters really to absorb this shift. Broadly these are in the range of what we discussed earlier: in the ballpark of the head to head numbers on the eve of the late June debate. But they’re a bit better.
To me the bigger indicators are things like the Trump campaign putting out a polling memo saying it expects Harris to make gains and probably move into a lead but that it won’t last. There is also an uncharacteristic disarray from the Trump camp. They will certainly get their bearings. But out of the gate they appeared stunned, wrong-footed and generally uncertain how to react. As I said, they won’t stay that way. But it now seems clear they did not expect Biden to leave the race and weren’t prepared for it.
The Times clearly got suckered with that big article over the weekend with top Trump campaign officials bragging that the had the whole roll out gamed out and were prepared to destroy Harris on the launchpad with a fusillade of messaging and campaign ad attacks. Some of that stumble is likely due to the fact that even for the most seasoned professionals it is difficult to fully game out a scenario before it actually happens. Some of events are simply too large to fully grasp how they will function, the scope of their impact before they happen.
The reality of the situation is one the Harris campaign is telling us with their actions: the initial horse race polls only really matter for anxious onlookers and for the production of vibes. A small lead can be gained or lost quickly, especially in a race which has entirely new and now largely unknown dynamics. It’s really quite different from the Biden v Trump race in that way. Harris’s first appearances on the hustings have been energetic and aggressive, getting good reviews from neutral observers. The reason they call it a campaign is that you have to go out and do it.
