The Trump Campaign Is Lowering Expectations

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GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - JULY 20: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump stands onstage with Republican vice presidential candidate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) during a campaign rally at the ... GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - JULY 20: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump stands onstage with Republican vice presidential candidate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) during a campaign rally at the Van Andel Arena on July 20, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Trump's campaign event is the first joint event with Vance and the first campaign rally since the attempted assassination attempt his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) MORE LESS
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Former President Donald Trump’s campaign team apparently believes we are experiencing a vibe shift.

On Tuesday afternoon, the Trump campaign sent out a memo from their pollster Tony Fabrizio. The memo, which was blasted out to the campaign’s entire press list, was labeled “CONFIDENTIAL” and featured Fabrizio lowering expectations now that President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid and Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee in the race against Trump.

“Many of you have heard me refer to the upcoming ‘Harris Honeymoon’ that I expect to see in the public polling over the next couple of weeks. As I’ve explained, the honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the [mainstream media]. The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term,” Fabrizio wrote. “That means we will start to see public polling – particularly national public polls – where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump.”

The switch from Biden to Harris came after Trump was riding high in the polls in the wake of the attempt on his life and the Republican National Convention. Since Sunday, when Biden announced his decision to abandon his re-election, Harris boxed out any potential challengers for the nomination and brought in a historic fundraising haul of over $100 million.

That early momentum for Harris apparently prompted a bit of expectation setting from Trump’s team. Fabrizio said Harris will get a “bump” in the polls due to initial coverage, her running mate choice — which will likely come ahead of the Democratic National Convention virtual roll call vote due to take place next month — and the in-person convention, which is due to start Aug. 19.

The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment about Fabrizio’s memo.

While Fabrizio predicted short term gains for Harris, he suggested her numbers will ultimately take a hit.

‘Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot. As importantly, voters will also learn about Harris’ dangerously liberal record before becoming Biden’s partner,” Fabrizio wrote.

Fabrizio went on to blame Harris for “creating historic inflation,” supposedly due to her deciding vote on Biden’s infrastructure package, and for enabling “migrant crime” in her role as “Biden’s Border Czar” and in her earlier career as a district attorney in San Francisco.

Fabrizio’s scattershot blitz is evidence of a kitchen sink approach Trump’s team has used against Harris. In the three days since the Democrats’ ticket switch, Trump aides and allies have trotted out a variety of attacks on Harris including factually questionable attempts to paint her as a far left radical, complaints about the nature of Biden’s departure, multiple paranoid conspiracy theories from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), sadly predictable misogyny and racism, and something about plastic straws. For his part, Trump seems to have switched from dubbing Harris “Laffin’ Kamala” to calling her “Lyin’ Kamala”, which, as a re-tread of the nickname he memorably gave Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) during the 2016 GOP presidential primary, hardly seems like his most inspired work on that front.

One Republican operative who requested anonymity to discuss their party’s candidate, suggested the lack of a more focused attack on Harris indicates Trump’s own polling honeymoon may have left him distracted.

“It felt like the Trump campaign was already measuring the drapes and picking out West Wing office space instead of preparing for the very real possibility that Biden would drop out,” the Republican operative said, adding, “Time will tell as to whether this lack of outward preparation hurts Trump moving forward, but overconfidence like this is exactly why Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.”

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Notable Replies

  1. I know my vibe has shifted!

  2. I’m so sorry to hear that TSF didn’t get a ‘bounce’ from his padded ear or his VP pick, or the pathetic cult convention. LOL.

    Not only has Kamala come out with guns blazing, she’s energized the Democratic party and she will actually get a further bounce in the polls from our convention. And she’ll destroy TSF in any debate he attends.

    Gee, Donnie, you bud elon is now taking shots at you, daddy vlad’s help isn’t quite as effective and you tired old thrash and trash technique just isn’t exciting any new voters. You’re looking like a loser, Donnie. Hahahahaha…

  3. So much for ratcheting down the racist commentary. On X from Usha Vance. Sheesh.

    But Usha Vance was NOT a DEI hire when she clerked for Kavanaugh and Roberts? How does that work?

    Belatedly edited to clarify the above tweet and account have been claimed to be false and the account suspended. Noted for information, but the conversation left because the message is out there.

  4. BREAKING NEWS: A semi-load of Depends has just pulled up to Mar-a-Lago!

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