UNSEALED: Jack Smith Details Why Trump Isn’t Immune From Prosecution For Jan. 6 Crimes

Nearly two years after Jack Smith was named special counsel, a federal judge has unsealed the most damning evidence Smith’s collected to demonstrate that Trump sought to block the peaceful transfer of power in the 2020 election.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan for the District of Columbia ordered that the filing, clocking in at 165 pages, be released after a back-and-forth with the Trump team over redactions.

The motion, styled as a legal brief addressing why Trump’s actions are not immune from prosecution under the Supreme Court’s July immunity decision, cites exhibits and evidence about Trump’s 2020 self-coup attempt. Its appendices have not yet been released. It may be Smith’s last chance to show his case to the public: Trump has said that, if he wins in November, he will have the DOJ terminate the cases against him.

We’ll be combing through the motion below.

DHS Warns Every Level Of Election Admin Could Be Targeted By Domestic Extremists Next Month

The Department of Homeland Security is warning that domestic violent extremists, many of whom will be motivated by political policy and ideological grievances, pose the most “significant physical threat” to the election system and those who will work to administer it next month.

Continue reading “DHS Warns Every Level Of Election Admin Could Be Targeted By Domestic Extremists Next Month”  

Have Pollsters Figured Out How to Poll for Trumpers?

One thing we’ve talked about a lot this year in the Backchannel and the podcast is changes pollsters have made to their methodologies over recent years, in large part because of 2016 and 2020 polling errors tied to Trump. Kyle Kondick, of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, posted two good links on this that I wanted to share with you. The first is this short interview with Professor Charles Franklin of Marquette Law School who runs what is generally considered the signature in-state poll in Wisconsin and one of the most reliable nationwide. (Some of you may remember that Franklin was our polling methodology advisor back in the days of TPMPollTracker.) Then there’s this short article which goes over the changes industry-wide.

Continue reading “Have Pollsters Figured Out How to Poll for Trumpers?”  

More on GOTV and Campaign Field Operations

This note from TPM Reader DK doesn’t answer for us the questions we discussed yesterday about Republican GOTV efforts. But it does point to key questions to ask to find out more. And I found it just a fascinating window into the nuts and bolts of campaign field operations.

I’ve done GOTV for two decades, including my own campaign long ago. A few observations:

Continue reading “More on GOTV and Campaign Field Operations”  

Tim Walz Lowers The Boom On JD Vance Over Jan. 6

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

4th Quarter Comeback

After a performance that was at times bumbling and excessively amiable, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) flashed some steel at the very end of the vice presidential debate, pinning JD Vance to the mat over whether he still thinks Donald Trump won the 2020 election.

Vance bobbed and weaved but never responded, at which point Walz delivered his toughest line of the night: “That is a damning non-answer.”

Claiming Trump won in 2020 remains a litmus test for Republican candidates everywhere, and Vance was not about to fail that test on a national stage with Trump himself live-tweeting the debate. It confirmed for a national TV audience that Vance remains under the sway of Trump’s cultish demand that his supporters embrace his alternate reality.

Most of Vance’s debate points had that same slavish flavor, but they were more subtle and probably beyond the ability of the average voter to detect. When he insisted against all evidence and reason that Trump was Obamacare’s biggest supporter or feigned concern about the plight of women in the Trump-created post-Dobbs world or soft-pedaled his own prior strident criticisms of Trump, Vance was lying, sure, but it’s more egregious and pathological than mere mistruths.

The alternative reality of election denialism is a cocoon of conspiracies and self-adulation and psychological coping that continues to the present. Earlier in the day on the campaign trail, Trump again extended the Big Lie to 2024 and to any election he loses:

For Vance’s part, he has embraced his role as the anti-Pence, saying he would have refused to certify the Electoral College results and asked for alternative slates of electors from the states. It was a precursor for Walz’s second strongest line of the night, pointing out that Vance was only on the debate stage because Trump had dumped his own vice president for doing the right thing on Jan. 6.

Jack Smith Moves Aggressively In Jan. 6 Case

In an unusually quick response, Special Counsel Jack Smith took only three hours to file his retort to a Donald Trump move to block unsealing of some elements of the Jan. 6 case against him. It’s all part of an effort by Trump to prevent the public from seeing the bulk of Smith’s case, including never-before-revealed evidence, before the November election.

ICYMI: TPM’s Veep Debate Coverage

It drove me crazy that Walz spent half his time saying Vance was probably a good guy and they could probably agree on a lot. Drove me crazy. It drove me nuts that Walz didn’t swing hard at some hanging curveballs Vance threw over the plate. (He finally did on democracy.) But I’m not the audience for this stuff. I think the avuncular nice guy thing probably worked for him with the people who matter. Not my cup of tea but I’m not the average voter.

Quote Of The Day

JD Vance, to debate moderator Margaret Brennan: “Margaret, the rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact-check!”

LOL: Trump Tries On New Abortion Position For Size

One tangible result of the vice presidential debate was that Trump rolled out a whole new position on abortion, now claiming he would veto any federal abortion ban.

This latest about-face comes after Trump denied in the last presidential debate that he would veto a national abortion ban and gave JD Vance shit about outrunning him on this issue, which forced Vance to offer a mea culpa.

Basically, Trump has no firm public position on abortion and is reacting in real time to what he senses the most popular answer is for the given audience.

Trump’s Rough Day In Wisconsin

Donald Trump’s continued deterioration was so apparent during appearances Tuesday in Wisconsin that the WaPo mustered this headline: “Trump mixes up words, swerves among subjects in off-topic speech.”

For a complete rundown, Public Notice has a blow-by-blow account of Trump’s “decompensation” during yesterday’s two speeches.

Among the lowlights:

  • Trump dismissed U.S. soldiers’ traumatic brain injuries in Iraq as “headaches.”
  • Trump continued his racist attacks on immigrants, which has recently focused primarily on Black immigrants from Haiti and now the Congo:

Senate Dems Slowly React To Nascent Trump-Egypt Scandal

Two weeks ago, TPM reported that some Democratic senators were calling for Senate investigations into allegations in the Washington Post in August about a now-closed DOJ probe into whether Egypt funneled $10 million to Donald Trump during his 2016 campaign for president. 

Yesterday, four Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee — Richard Blumenthal (CT), Mazie Hirono (HI), Alex Padilla (CA) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) — signed a letter asking DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz to look into whether Trump appointees “interfered with and, ultimately, blocked” the federal probe into the underlying allegations.

Hurricane Helene Update

  • The death toll in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in the Southeast has risen to at least 137 people across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia – but the number of confirmed deaths remain in considerable flux.
  • Today, President Biden will review the damage in western North Carolina from the air and make appearances in Raleigh and South Carolina, while Vice President Harris will travel to hard-hit Augusta, Georgia.
  • The flooding in and around Spruce Pine, North Carolina, has “imperiled the operations of mines that produce the world’s purest quartz sand — an irreplaceable ingredient for manufacturing components at the heart of smartphones and other electronic devices,” the WaPo reports.
  • Helene has upended voting in North Carolina, a key battleground state.

Slaying With Upper Midwest Humor

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Vance Rolls Out Alternate-Reality Persona, And Other Takeaways From The 2024 VP Debate

The first and likely only vice presidential debate of 2024 was a far cry from the emotional rollercoaster of the first two presidential debates, the first of which ended President Joe Biden’s candidacy and the second of which drew a profound contrast between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. The discussion tonight had few fireworks; it was dense, as Vance and Walz moved swiftly through their talking points. It was more Midwestern nice: there were nearly no personal attacks, but lots of agreement through gritted teeth. 

Continue reading “Vance Rolls Out Alternate-Reality Persona, And Other Takeaways From The 2024 VP Debate”  

Debate Wrap Up

So I think this debate was basically a draw. Vance was smooth and organized. He approached normality. He was often clearer than Tim Walz was. Tim Walz is not a terribly articulate debater. That’s something the Harris campaign tried to telegraph last week. And I think it was a good idea to do that. On those fronts, Vance did better. Vance was also on message. He literally tied everything to inflation and immigration. Even the most preposterous things he brought back to those issues. Vance definitely did well on that front too.

But Walz did better than I think some people may realize because with all the jumbliness and clackity clink he got in the story of the women whose lives were lost or endangered by Trump state abortion bans. Again and again, there were key points, key stories that the Harris campaign clearly wanted him to say from the stage and he did, even if they were surrounded by Walzian word fugue. And that really matters more than how focused he was as a speaker. He got those things. That matters more.

Continue reading “Debate Wrap Up”  

Okay, Let’s Get Weird

10:41 PM: Walz is just bumbly and floppity again and again. But on a number of these issues Vance is just so obviously full of it Walz still wins on points. And that’s happening more as the debate goes on. That happened on Obamacare and on democracy and Jan 6th. Abortion too.

10:17 PM: I just cannot believe that Vance is actually claiming that Trump made Obamacare work.

9:57 PM: There’s an odd dynamic in this debate. Vance is doing well. He’s smooth. He’s hitting his points. Walz is kind of jangly. Not nearly as smooth. He stumbles over sentences. If you look at this and say, who’s smoother? Who’s clearer? I think that’s Vance. But what Walz is doing is hitting the key lines the campaign wants him to say. Often he gets to them in response to questions about other things. But he hits them. The stories of these women who died or almost died from Trump abortion bans. So I think he’s hitting his marks too.

9:46 PM: Sidled up to JD’s menstrual surveillance racket. Appreciate that.

9:44 PM: I really wish Walz would have been more clear on the the fact that for all Trump’s chatter about bringing jobs home it’s actually Biden and Harris who are doing that with the IRA.

9:27 PM: It’s fascinating how both these guys are basically saying each other is great.

9:20 PM: It’s interesting that Vance was not remotely willing to defend mass deportation. Basically wrote it off.

9:16 PM: Okay, I don’t expect Republicans to make a lot of sense on climate but someone’s got to dig into JD’s argument about climate which if I understand it is basically that the best thing for the climate is to do all our manufacturing in the U.S. and also to drill a bunch more oil.

9:14 PM: Okay, I’m not sure JD’s climate answer made any sense. I mean, creative, but not a lot of sense.

9:06 PM: It’s interesting. Just in the first two answers I’d say both guys answered pretty well for their campaigns. Very different answers. But each hitting their marks.

Have Government Employees Mentioned Climate Change, Voting or Gender Identity? The Heritage Foundation Wants to Know.

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Three investigators for the Heritage Foundation have deluged federal agencies with thousands of Freedom of Information Act requests over the past year, requesting a wide range of information on government employees, including communications that could be seen as a political liability by conservatives. Among the documents they’ve sought are lists of agency personnel and messages sent by individual government workers that mention, among other things, “climate equity,” “voting” or “SOGIE,” an acronym for sexual orientation, gender identity and expression.

The Heritage team filed these requests even as the think tank’s Project 2025 was promoting a controversial plan to remove job protections for tens of thousands of career civil servants so they could be identified and fired if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

All three men who filed the requests — Mike Howell, Colin Aamot and Roman Jankowski — did so on behalf of the Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, an arm of the conservative group that uses FOIA, lawsuits and undercover videos to investigate government activities. In recent months, the group has used information gleaned from the requests to call attention to efforts by the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency to teach staff about gender diversity, which Fox News characterized as the “Biden administration’s ‘woke’ policies within the Department of Defense.” Heritage also used material gathered from a FOIA search to claim that a listening session the Justice Department held with voting rights activists constituted an attempt to “rig” the presidential election because no Republicans were present.

An analysis of more than 2,000 public-records requests submitted by Aamot, Howell and Jankowski to more than two dozen federal offices and agencies, including the State Department, the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Trade Commission, shows an intense focus on hot-button phrases used by individual government workers.

Those 2,000 requests are just the tip of the iceberg, Howell told ProPublica in an interview. Howell, the executive director of the Oversight Project, estimated that his group had submitted more than 50,000 information requests over the past two years. He described the project as “the most prestigious international investigative operation in the world.”

Among 744 requests that Aamot, Jankowski and Howell submitted to the Department of the Interior over the past year are 161 that seek civil servants’ emails and texts as well as Slack and Microsoft Teams messages that contained terms including “climate change”; “DEI,” or diversity, equity and inclusion; and “GOTV,” an acronym for get out the vote. Many of these FOIAs request the messages of individual employees by name.

Trump has made clear his intentions to overhaul the Department of the Interior, which protects the nation’s natural resources, including hundreds of millions of acres of land. Under President Joe Biden, the department has made tackling climate change a priority.

Hundreds of the requests asked for government employees’ communications with civil rights and voting rights groups, including the ACLU; the Native American Rights Fund; Rock the Vote; and Fair Count, an organization founded by Democratic politician and voting rights advocate Stacey Abrams. Still other FOIAs sought communications that mention “Trump” and “Reduction in Force,” a term that refers to layoffs.

Several requests, including some sent to the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, focus on personnel. Some ask for “all employees who entered into a position at the agency as a Political Appointee since January 20, 2021,” the first day of the Biden administration. Others target career employees. Still other FOIAs seek agencies’ “hierarchy charts.”

“It does ring some alarm bells as to whether this is part of an effort to either intimidate government employees or, ultimately, to fire them and replace them with people who are going to be loyal to a leader that they may prefer,” Noah Bookbinder, president and CEO of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW, said of the FOIAs.

Asked whether the project gathered the records to facilitate the firing of government workers, Howell said, “Our work is meant to just figure out who the decision-makers are.” He added that his group isn’t focused on simply identifying particular career employees. “It’s more about what the bureaucrats are doing, not who the bureaucrats are,” he said.

Howell said he was speaking on behalf of himself and the Oversight Project. Aamot requested questions in writing, but did not respond further. Jankowski did not reply to a request for comment.

Bookbinder also pointed out that inundating agencies with requests can interfere with the government’s ability to function. “It’s OK to make FOIA requests,” said Bookbinder, who acknowledged that CREW has also submitted its share of requests. “But if you purposely overwhelm the system, you can both cause slower response to FOIAs … and you can gum up other government functions.”

Indeed, a government worker who processes FOIAs for a federal agency told ProPublica that the volume of requests from Heritage interfered with their ability to do their job. “Sometimes they come in at a rate of one a second,” said the worker, who asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to speak to the press. The worker said they now spend a third of their work time processing requests from Heritage, including some that seek communications that mention the terms “Biden” and “mental” or “Alzheimer’s” or “dementia” or “defecate” or “poop.”

“They’re taking time away from FOIA requesters that have legitimate requests,” said the worker. “We have to search people’s accounts for poop. This isn’t a thing. I can’t imagine a real reporter putting in a request like that.”

Asked about the comment, Howell said: “I’m paying them, so they should do their damn job and turn over the documents. Their job is not to decide what they think is worth, you know, releasing or not.” He added that “we’re better journalists by any standard than The New York Times.”

Project 2025, which is led by Heritage, became politically toxic — with Trump disavowing the endeavor and Kamala Harris seeking to tie her opponent to the plan — in part for proposing to identify and fire as many as 50,000 career government employees who are deemed “nonperforming” by a future Trump administration. Trump attempted to do this at the end of his first term, issuing an executive order known as “Schedule F” that would have allowed his administration to reclassify thousands of civil servants, making them easier to fire and replace. Biden then repealed it.

Project 2025’s 887-page policy blueprint proposes that the next conservative president reissue that “Schedule F” executive order. That would mean a future Trump administration would have the ability to replace tens of thousands of career government employees with new staffers of their choosing.

To fill those vacancies, as ProPublica has reported, Project 2025 has also recruited, vetted and trained future government employees for a Republican administration. In one training video obtained by ProPublica, a former Trump White House official named Dan Huff says that future government staffers should prepare to enact drastic policy changes if they join the administration.

“If you’re not on board with helping implement a dramatic course correction because you’re afraid it’ll damage your future employment prospects, it’ll harm you socially — look, I get it,” Huff says. “That’s a real danger. It’s a real thing. But please: Do us all a favor and sit this one out.”

Howell, the head of the Oversight Project and one of the FOIA filers, is a featured speaker in one of Project 2025’s training videos, in which he and two other veteran government investigators discuss different forms of government oversight, such as FOIA requests, inspector general investigations and congressional probes. Another speaker in the video, Tom Jones of the American Accountability Foundation, offers advice to prospective government employees in a conservative administration about how to avoid having sensitive or embarrassing emails obtained under the FOIA law — the very strategy that the Oversight Project is now using with the Biden administration.

“If you need to resolve something, if you can do it, it’s probably better to walk down the hall, buttonhole a guy and say, ‘Hey, what are we going to do here?’ Talk through the decision,” Jones says.

“You’re probably better off,” Jones says, “going down to the canteen, getting a cup of coffee, talking it through and making the decision, as opposed to sending him an email and creating a thread that Accountable.US or one of those other groups is going to come back and seek.”

The records requests are far reaching, seeking “full calendar exports” for hundreds of government employees. One FOIA submitted by Aamot sought the complete browser history for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, “whether exported from Chrome, Safari, Windows Explorer, Mozilla.” The most frequent of the three requesters, Aamot, whose online bio describes him as a former psychological operations planner with the Army’s Special Operations Command, submitted some FOIAs on behalf of the Heritage Foundation and others for the Daily Signal. The publication spun off from the Heritage Foundation in June, according to an announcement on the think tank’s website, but another page on the site still seeks donations for both the foundation and the Daily Signal.

ProPublica obtained the Department of Interior requests as well as tallies of FOIAs from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Health Resources and Services Administration through its own public records requests.

Several of the Heritage Foundation’s requests focus on gender, asking for materials federal agencies presented to employees or contractors “mentioning ‘DEI’, ‘Transgender’, ‘Equity’, or ‘Pronouns.’” Aamot sent similar requests to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Office of Management and Budget, Americorps and the Chemical Safety Board, among other agencies. Howell said he believes that the group has uncovered evidence that “unpopular and just frankly sexually creepy and sexually disordered ideas are now being translated into government jargon, speak, policies, procedures and guidance documents.”

Heritage’s FOIA blitz has even sought information about what government employees are saying about Heritage and its employees, including the three men filing the thousands of FOIAs. One request sent to the Interior Department asks for any documents to and from the agency’s chief FOIA officer that mention Heritage’s president, Kevin Roberts, as well as the names of Aamot, Howell and Jankowski.

Irena Hwang contributed data analysis. Kirsten Berg contributed research.