Electoral Politics Are A Terrible Prism For Natural Disasters

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

A Flood Of Dumb

The storm-ravaged people of southern Appalachia are too busy cleaning up, digging out, and trying to find small moments of normalcy to keep themselves sane to notice much of the national political conversation. That is a small blessing amidst the carnage in their lives.

Natural disasters have become another of our stale campaign tropes. It dates back in my mind to President George H.W. Bush’s response to Hurricane Andrew in 1992. His son’s feeble response to Hurricane Katrina was a political disaster that didn’t sink his second term all by itself but served to bring home in a clear and convincing way the incompetence and ineptitude of the Iraq invasion. What could be explained away in Baghdad could not be waved away in New Orleans. But those few historic instances have become tired set pieces that political editors pull out of the file when the next big disaster strikes, and that doesn’t do anyone any good.

Disaster response is one of those under-appreciated core government functions that requires years of planning, consistent funding, unsexy contingencies for communications, mutual aid, and the pre-positioning of assets — none of which is noticed or appreciated until disaster strikes. It is a chronic frustration of emergency managers that their warnings aren’t heeded, their resources are limited, and their communities often end up in reactive postures rather than proactively planning for the inevitable disaster.

In recent decades, manmade climate change and population growth have combined to turbocharge weather-related disasters, adding another layer of complexity, and additional political baggage to the grinding job of preparing for and mitigating natural disasters. (Some of you will object to the term “natural disaster” but let’s save that conversation for another day.) Perhaps at no time in human history has preparation and mitigation for weather disasters been more urgently required, but the stranglehold that climate-change-denying Republicans continue to have on politics makes that very difficult.

Hurricane Helene’s deluge was without precedent in western North Carolina, but it is reminiscent of past storms with far-reaching inland effects, carrying echoes, for instance, of 1972’s Hurricane Agnes. But science tell us that a warming atmosphere can hold more water and warming oceans fuel stronger storms. It will only get worse in the coming decades. Election year jousting over the immediate response until the TV cameras turn away is only the most glaring example of our short-sightedness.

Moronic

While southern Appalachia struggles to begin its long-term recovery from Hurricane Helene, Donald Trump was running around Georgia making idiotic comments like this one:

The hurricane seasons runs through the end of November. The climatological peak of hurricane season falls around Sept 10. Helene made landfall on Sept. 26, smack in the middle of what is historically the busiest stretch of the hurricane season.

One Bright Spot

CNN’s Brian Stelter has a lovely piece on how local radio has become a lifeline for the people of western North Carolina in the aftermath of the historic flooding.

Tester And Sheehy Debate In Must-Win Race

The crucial, though increasingly tough for Dems, Montana Senate race entered its stretch run with a candidate debate last night, the highlight of which was this exchange in the closing minutes:

2024 Ephemera

  • Politico: Republicans are starting to raise alarms about Trump’s ground game
  • NYT: Trump Allies Bombard the Courts, Setting Stage for Post-Election Fight
  • TPM: Georgia Dems Sue Kemp To Compel Him To Hold Hearing On Rogue Election Board
  • NPR: Justice Department sues Alabama, claiming it purged voters too close to the election

Trump Golf Course Gunman Pleads Not Guilty

Ryan Routh entered a not guilty plea in federal court in West Palm Beach on the federal charges against him for last month’s attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Judge Blocks Georgia’s Six-Week Abortion Ban

Access to abortion in Georgia was at least temporarily expanded when a state trial judge blocked a six-week ban, reverting the state to the previous 22-week ban. Fulton County Superior Judge Robert McBurney ruled that the six-week abortion ban violated the state Constitution. The case is expected to reach the Georgia Supreme Court for a final determination on the six-week ban’s constitutionality.

Health Care Access Threatened By GOP Win In November

When democracy is at stake, some of the usual campaign issues fade from relevance, but this election presents a major fork in the road on national health care policy since the two parties are miles apart on things as basic as Obamacare, Medicare, and Medicaid. Here’s just one example.

Dockworkers Strike Along East And Gulf Coasts

WSJ: “Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 dockworkers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, began picketing early Tuesday at cargo terminals that handle more than half of American import and export volumes as the contract with port employers expired.”

Happy 100th!

Portrait of American politician and US Presidential candidate Jimmy Carter on the North Bridge during campaign stop, Concord, Massachusetts, 1976. (Photo by Mikki Ansin/Getty Images)

When he went into hospice care months ago, it seemed unlikely that former President Jimmy Carter would live to see his 100th birthday. But he continues to defy expectations and set his own course. He was born on this date in 1924.

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Israel’s Thrust into South Lebanon

Wars are not only bloody and murderous endeavors, they are also unpredictable. The specter of former forays into Lebanon looms over Israel’s current one: easy to get in, harder to get out. After the stunning assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as most of the secondary leadership of the organization over the last three weeks, we’re hearing voices in Israel and the U.S. talking predictably about a “new Middle East.” Meanwhile others in the international community and the U.S. talk about these new developments as an “escalation” out of nowhere — Israel looking for a new war, basically.

This is complicated stuff, like everything which happens in this region and especially everything tied to Israel, the Palestinians, and the states surrounding both. But I wanted to share some thoughts on why this escalation and Israel’s fight with Hezbollah are qualitatively different from anything that is happening in Gaza.

Continue reading “Israel’s Thrust into South Lebanon”

Happy 100th Birthday, Jimmy Carter

Today is Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday. The 39th president has lived a remarkable and extraordinarily unique life over the course of a century: from serving in the Navy, to running his family’s peanut farm in Georgia, to his years in the White House, to the decades of humanitarian and philanthropic work that followed, there is no figure who rivals Carter.

In honor of Carter’s milestone birthday, let’s enjoy some photos of the former president’s life and accomplishments.

Georgia Judge’s Abortion Decision Will Reverberate Across The South, Albeit Temporarily

Fulton County Superior Judge Robert McBurney issued an order Monday striking down the state’s six-week abortion ban and allowing the procedure to be performed again in the state up until 22 weeks of pregnancy.

Continue reading “Georgia Judge’s Abortion Decision Will Reverberate Across The South, Albeit Temporarily”

Georgia Dems Sue Kemp To Compel Him To Hold Hearing On Rogue Election Board

Several Georgia Democrats sued GOP Gov. Brian Kemp over his failure to hold a hearing on the three Trump-endorsed members of the Georgia Election Board after state Democrats filed formal ethics complaints against some of the members. 

Continue reading “Georgia Dems Sue Kemp To Compel Him To Hold Hearing On Rogue Election Board”

Dems’ Pivot to Texas and Florida

After days of hints at it, Democrats are now making a serious foray into Florida and Texas in a last-ditch effort to hold on to their Senate majority. Before calling it “last-ditch,” I wondered what to call it. Is that too pessimistic? Too optimistic? I’m really not sure. You know the background. Democrats went into this cycle with an almost historically bad map. One seat in West Virginia was, by universal agreement, hopeless. Beyond that preordained loss, Democrats had incumbents up in a several of the swing states and new candidates trying to hold existing seats in other swing states. On the other side of the ledger there were no obvious pick-up opportunities. Starting from those inauspicious beginnings, the Democrats’ map has held up remarkably well. In all but one case, Senate Democratic candidates go into the last month of the campaign either favorites or strong contenders. That one exception is Montana, where Jon Tester is now a decided underdog. Which brings us to Florida and Texas.

Are these races really plausible?

Continue reading “Dems’ Pivot to Texas and Florida”

Trump’s Obsession With Violence Becomes More Explicit

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘One Really Violent Day’

With five weeks until the election, and early voting underway, Donald Trump has returned to the themes that most animate him: ones grounded in race and racial violence.

In a campaign appearance Friday in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania, where the outcome of the 2024 election may very well be decided, Trump launched into a disjointed attack on crime, long a Republican code word for Black. But the dream sequence he narrated about unlawfully using violence preemptively as a deterrent to more crime was clear as a bell:

Crime and immigration as racist code words are not new in general or specifically to Trump. He has fallen back on them over and over, as other rhetorical devices come and go. As has been observed repeatedly over the past decade, Trump seems to have a visceral personal reaction to the prospect of violence, especially as a means of cleansing or rejuvenating, a baptismal violence fantasy that he indulges when the going gets tough.

The violence of Trump’s fantasies take many forms – police brutality, vigilantism, pro-wrestling theatrics – but in every form they serve as a projection of strength for a fundamentally weak, craven, and damaged man.

Trump Cranks Up Attacks On Immigrants

In related news, Trump’s racist anti-immigrant rhetoric has deepened and darkened as the race has tightened and Election Day approaches. While xenophobia has always been part and parcel of Trumpism, the combination of finding little traction elsewhere and Kamala Harris’ own biracial status has left blatant racist appeals as Trump’s last campaign grasp:

  • WSJ: Trump Amps Up Rhetoric to Keep Immigration at Center of Election
  • NYT: Trump’s Answer to Harris’s Border Trip Is To Call Her ‘Mentally Disabled’
  • CNN: To attack Harris, Trump falsely describes new stats on immigrants and homicide
  • WaPo: Trump lambastes immigrants using false homicide claims

Springfield Still Reeling From Attack On Haitian Immigrants

  • Politico: Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine confronts Trump’s lies.
  • NYT: An Ohio Businessman Faces Death Threats for Praising His Haitian Workers

Rule Of Law Watch

  • WSJ: Trump Plans Massive Shake-Up of Justice Department
  • Politico Magazine: Exactly How Trump Could Prosecute His Political Enemies

The Battle To Control The Senate

  • WSJ: Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $67.5 million on TV, radio and digital ads to flip Democratic Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin
  • Politico: Ted Cruz rebrands for a tight race in Texas

2024 Ephemera

Feds Bring Charges In Iran Hack Of Trump Campaign

Three Iranian nationals were indicted in federal court in Washington, D.C., for their alleged roles in the hack-and-leak attack against the Trump campaign.

Still Fighting Impeachment I At Ukraine’s Expense

An astonishing moment, really:

Can’t Ignore

Outside of Morning Memo’s usual jurisdiction, but the weekend developments in Lebanon are too momentous not to mention:

Southern Appalachia Faces A Long Recovery From Helene

ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 28: Men inspect the damage from flooding in the Biltmore Village in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on September 28, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina. Hurricane Helene made landfall Thursday night in Florida’s Big Bend with winds up to 140 mph. (Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

The death toll from Hurricane Helene rose past 100, more than a third of those deaths in and around Asheville in crippled western North Carolina, where historic rainfall caused catastrophic damage to human infrastructure.

Kris Kristofferson, 1936-2024

Kris Kristofferson being interviewed. He performed in the Olympia Theatre, Dublin, 08/02/1993. (Part of the Independent Newspapers Ireland/NLI Collection). (Photo by Independent News and Media/Getty Images)

Kris Kristofferson’s many remarkable incarnations – from youthful accomplishments like Rhodes Scholar and Army helicopter pilot to his creative output as a songwriter and musician to his substantial career as an actor – made him the embodiment of certain eras of American pop culture, especially the 1970s.

I have an offbeat amalgam of mental snapshots of him: flying helicopters offshore for the oil and gas industry from my hometown while he wrote “Me and Bobby McGee,” which Janis Joplin would make famous posthumously; the trucker in the Sam Peckinpah movie based on the novelty song “Convoy” that defined the big rig craze of the 1970s; a member of the supergroup The Highwaymen in the 1980s along with Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, and Waylon Jennings; his fabled confrontation with Toby Keith backstage at Nelson’s 70th birthday party in 2009, that Ethan Hawke famously described and that Kristofferson himself said he had no memory of.

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War On Terror, Redux

Hello, It’s The Weekend. This Is The Weekender ☕

Trump’s basic continuity with the GOP that preceded him gets lost in all of his bluster and lack of self-control. Sure, cheating on his wife with a pornstar and trying to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, among other things, get attention. But in some sense, they’re the exception to the rule. On the majority of issues, the same tendencies that existed under the Bush Administration, remain.

Continue reading “War On Terror, Redux”

Trump Camp Says State Menstrual Surveillance Programs are A-OK

One of the most toxic and politically explosive parts of the current abortion rights debate is tied the complexities and perhaps inanities of leaving national abortion policy up to individual states. And a comment yesterday from Trump spokesman Jason Miller put the question right back into the center of the campaign.

It’s not enough for many anti-abortion stalwarts to ban the procedure in their state. They want to ban legal drugs designed to induce abortion. They want to surveil and block women traveling to other states to obtain an abortion. One of the most threatening dimensions of these programs is that they threaten to make doctors and other medical professionals — who might give counsel on or simply know about a woman’s plans to obtain an abortion — responsible for reporting her actions. If you visit your OB-GYN and discuss traveling to another state to get an abortion, does your OB have to report you to the local sheriff? It applies to third parties who might assist a woman either in traveling to get an abortion or getting FDA-approved medications to induce an abortion at home. The cases we’ve already seen range the gamut from sheriff’s departments wanting to pull medical and travel records for evidence of pregnancies that ended for unexplained reasons, gaps in menstruation, trips out of state that coincided with a pregnancy not brought to term.

Continue reading “Trump Camp Says State Menstrual Surveillance Programs are A-OK”

The Eric Adams Case Is About More Than Public Corruption

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

A Paradigm Shift From Public Corruption To … What Exactly?

By now you’ve seen the broad outlines of the indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams. Five counts – conspiracy, wire fraud, solicitation of a campaign contribution by a foreign national, and bribery – of being a sloppy, brazen idiot.

It’s our usual practice to exalt in the buffoonery, slapstick comedy, and hilarious self-incrimination of corrupt elected officials. We’ll do a little of that in a moment.

But I want to place this in a different bucket than the usual run-of-the-mill public corruption case. It belongs instead to a new breed of criminal prosecutions targeting the foreign corruption of U.S. elected officials, elections, and the political system as a whole. It’s a new class of cases that combines what we think of as traditional public corruption with a national security and foreign policy component.

While the Justice Department has been arguably slow in responding to the threats posed by Donald Trump that culminated in the Jan. 6 attack, federal law enforcement has been focused, swift, and arguably relentless in targeting malign efforts by foreign governments and interests in corrupting our domestic politics for their own ends.

Whether it’s Russian ongoing efforts to destabilize the U.S. political system, Egyptian efforts to compromise Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), or the multiple cases involving officials and business interests from our NATO ally Turkey, the pattern of quick DOJ intervention suggests this is among the highest federal law enforcement priorities. The Adams prosecution falls squarely in the recent spate of Turkey-related cases.

DOJ has used a mix of anti-public-corruption laws and the Foreign Agents Registration Act to combat these perverse outside influences. It seems especially focused on moving rapidly in the periods before elections when the potential damage of corrupt influence is greatest.

So while the allegations against Adams are especially ridiculous in the particulars, the trend of which he is a part is a relatively new and different phenomenon that’s only come into sharper focus in the past decade.

Always With The Buffoonery

No matter which bucket you’re talking about – public corruption, foreign influence, kleptocratic excesses – the pure absurdity, utter recklessness, and cartoonish criming seems to remain entirely intact and undiluted.

Spot-On Analysis (Stringer Bell Weeps)

Quite A Day For Purported Crime-Fighting NYC Mayors

Rudy Giuliani officially disbarred in Washington D.C. for his efforts to subvert the 2020 election on behalf of Donald Trump.

The Long Tail Of Trump Accountability

  • Jack Smith filed his extensive briefing and offer of evidence in the Trump Jan. 6 case in an effort to overcome the presidential immunity bestowed by the Supreme Court, but the filing remains under seal.
  • Massive civil fraud verdict against Trump gets frosty reception at New York appeals court.

Smartmatic Settles Defamation Case Against Newsmax

The settlement arising from Newsmax’s false claims about the 2020 election came as jury selection was beginning in Delaware. The terms of the confidential settlement were not disclosed.

Election Security Watch

  • TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: Safeguards Will Prevent Georgia Board From Blocking Certification Indefinitely. But Delays Could Still Wreak Havoc
  • Christian Science Monitor’s Cameron Joseph interviews Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger about the Georgia Election Board “destroying voter confidence.”

On The Trail

  • Donald Trump said he would meet Friday morning at Trump Tower with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, their first meeting since 2019.
  • Later Friday, Trump is in Warren, Michigan, for a town hall event focused on the auto industry.
  • Kamala Harris visits the U.S.-Mexico border In Arizona.

By The Numbers: Swing States Edition

ARIZONA

GEORGIA

MICHIGAN

Harris leads Trump 50%-47% among likely voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

NEVADA

Harris leads Trump 52%-45% among likely voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

NORTH CAROLINA

Harris leads Trump 50%-48% among likely voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

PENNSYLVANIA

Harris leads Trump 51%-46% among likely voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

WISCONSIN

Harris leads Trump 51%-48% among likely voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Breaking News In Iranian Hack Of Trump Campaign

  • ABC News: “Federal law enforcement officials plan to announce criminal charges Friday in connection with the alleged Iranian hack of emails from members of former President Donald Trump’s campaign, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.”
  • Politico: “A grand jury has indicted multiple Iranians on charges related to hacking Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.”

2024 Ephemera

  • Democrats are hedging their bets on their Senate majority by making late – perhaps desperate – plays in the closer-than-expected races to unseat Ted Cruz (TX), Rick Scott (FL), and Deb Fischer (NE).
  • Never-Trump Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) remains reluctant to endorse Kamala Harris because (i) he wants “to preserve his ability to rebuild the Republican Party in a post-Trump world”; and (ii) has concerns about his own family’s safety, the WaPo reports.
  • David Dayen on Kamala Harris’ manufacturing agenda.

Playing The Long Game

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced a bill to expand the Supreme Court by six justices over 12 years, among other reform measures.

Every Last Bit Of This

Quote Of The Day

A Matt Gaetz word salad, offered in defiant response to inquiries by the House Ethics Committee into allegations of drug use and underage sex:

I have not used drugs which are illegal, absent some law allowing use in a jurisdiction of the United States. I have not used “illicit” drugs, which I consider to be drugs unlawful for medical or over-the-counter use everywhere in the United States.

‘Many Things Keep Happening’

To end a week where we needed some grounding, pause for a moment and listen to the Kentucky patois of Robert Penn Warren: “The mayor / Has been, clearly, remiss, and the city / Was totally unprepared for such a crisis.”

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