When President Donald Trump took over for the second time, things looked interminably bleak for Democrats.
Americans had willingly reelected a man who encouraged a mass of his followers to sack the Capitol and prevent the certification of an election he’d lost. And the first opportunity for a Democratic comeback, in a long two years, was anything but certain: While the Republicans’ House majority was small, the path to Senate control was riddled with states Trump had won three times.
Then Trump started governing. Some combination of tariffs, ICE brutality, the Iran War and his fixation on construction (and demolition) projects in D.C. created a Pig-Pen-like haze around him so toxic that his approval plunged into the low 30s. Combined with Democrats’ newfound popularity with diehard midterm voters, the Trump miasma was too strong for Republicans to hold the upper chamber, even with a map so friendly they may as well have designed it themselves.
Democrats snatched the majority decisively, with astounding wins along the way. Democrat Annie Andrews took Lindsey Graham’s old Senate seat from his sister, Darline Graham, in the upset of the cycle (if not multiple cycles).
The party finally bagged its white whale of Texas in ferocious fashion, with Democrat James Talarico flattening Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Democrat Gina Hinojosa rode the wave to a victory against Gov. Greg Abbott (R) too, a stunning upset that seemed impossible just months ago.
In another shocker, Kansas will send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 94 years as Democrat Adam Hamilton beat Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS). While Marshall ran a miserable campaign, Democrats can revel in the success of their exceptional candidate — and senator-elect.
The Iowa race polled as a dead heat for months, but Democrat Josh Turek took down Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), a Republican widely considered to be formidable and to have run a disciplined campaign.
Sherrod Brown will return to the Senate after banishing Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) — a tribute both to his unique appeal in the state and the consistent weakness of appointed incumbents. Brown will be back in the arena in 2028 after serving out the end of J.D. Vance’s term.
Democrat Roy Cooper was the first flip of the night, defeating Michael Whatley, who was hand-picked by Trump to run for the seat formerly held by his sometimes critic Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). As expected — though still remarkably — Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) routed Republican Mike Collins early in the evening.
It’s a victory that will resound. Such an overperformance gives Democrats some buffer in 2028, when the Senate races will be decided by an electorate that (in recent years) has leaned more Republican than the off-year cycles. It puts them closer to a Democratic trifecta in two years, with which they could reform the Supreme Court, add Senate seats and rebuild a federal government that’s inoculated from the impulses of the next would-be authoritarian.
The short-term is less Sorkinesque, though a significant majority might put impeachment more seriously on the table.
The most important function of the new Senate majority will be blocking Trump’s judicial nominees. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) staked out an uncompromising position before the election, telling NBC: “The bottom line is: One of the reasons we want to do everything we can to take back the Senate is not let Trump put such horrible justices — MAGA justices — on the Supreme Court and the lower courts.”
Every Article III judicial confirmation runs through the Senate, and Democrats will get to prevent two years worth of hard-right judges from sitting on the bench for lifetime appointments. Especially as the power of the judiciary has grown, the party that controls the courts shapes American society.
It also ensures that, should a Supreme Court justice die or retire, Trump won’t get to replace them with, say, Aileen Cannon. A 2028 Democratic trifecta must reform the Court anyway — making these individual vacancies less important — but an open spot on the bench could act as a powerful electoral motivator.
Beyond the judicial blockade, and slowing or preventing other Executive Branch confirmations (though Trump has taken a liking to appointing “acting” officials and his Justice Department has literally changed titles in order to allow Trump appointees to keep operating without Senate confirmation), the Democratic Senate will have a few key moments of legislative leeway. The current budget expires in December, and the debt ceiling is expected to need a lift in 2027. If Democrats show a little chutzpah, they can leverage both to get what they want (soon to be House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been vocal about ending tariffs, reversing Trump’s Medicaid cuts, restoring the Affordable Care Act subsidies and ending the Iran War).
The senators also, along with their House counterparts, will have investigatory and oversight powers. While those in Trump’s inner circle might feel shielded by promised pardons, there are plenty of people lower on the totem pole whose fates are not so assured.
With such a large wave, I wonder if Thomas and/or Alito might not resign post haste to let the lame duck Senate approve replacements??
Aileen may yet go to Washington.
The most important line in the story, to me. The way to keep this momentum is a steady drip of revelations about the depth and venality of GOP corruption.
Could be wrong, but it seems unlikely to me that either would be willing to relinquish power on behalf of anyone else, even a co-partisan. These guys didn’t get to where they are by being selfless.
True dat. John Kenneth Galbraith on steroids.