A few TPM readers responded to yesterday’s post about Trump as the “weak horse” arguing that Trump’s waning power makes him more dangerous, not less. I agree. Mostly. What’s “more dangerous” is a subjective question, with different kinds of dangers, different time horizons. Overall it’s clearly a good thing since Trump’s loss of power and the eventual defeat of his movement are good things. Though that’s far from a certainty, it is getting more likely. But Trump won’t go quietly. We know that from Jan. 6. No president wants to see their popularity wane or the loss of power that goes with it. But Trump’s binary mental world puts a sharper, more draconian focus on everything. In his world, you are punishing or the punished, dominating or the dominated. Loss of power means personal political peril. That’s how it works in his own head, and to a significant degree Trump’s own actions have made that all-or-nothing world a reality around him.
Dictators don’t like to give up power. And not just because they like power. Once you’ve done a lot of bad things, it’s dangerous to give up power. Whether or not Trump counts yet as a dictator (I’d say sorta but not really) he’s certainly created a dictator dynamic for himself. And in case you’re wondering, no I’m not predicting that we’ll be seeing Trump on trial any time soon or probably ever. The current Supreme Court has made that a very difficult bar for Trump to clear. But I would argue that the psychic death of loss of power, of being menaced or dominated by his foes without recourse, is probably more terrifying to Trump than legal peril in any case.
What it all comes down to is the paradox: as Trump grows weaker, the more unpredictable and reckless he’s likely to become. That’s probably even more the case for his top lieutenants. They don’t have automatic immunity (though they can get pardoned) and they’re not 79 years old.
There is a part of Trump’s modus operandi that includes just backing down when people stand up to him. In a way, he really picks his fights. So based on that, one might imagine more concerted opposition managing to bully him back into semi-constitutional rule. But the true indicator is Jan. 6. When he’s really on the ropes, he pulls together his most loyal and violent supporters and does everything he can to hold on to power. And even semi-constitutional government would be difficult at this point because he and his people have already done a lot of bad things.