Conventional wisdom can evolve in unexpected and unpredictable ways. Conventional wisdom isn’t necessarily valid, of course. The “conventional” label hints that it’s probably not, or at least that it’s incomplete. But conventional wisdom, regardless of its merits, can shape how real world events are perceived and thus the reality of how they unfold. I say all this as preface to note that the day-after reactions to the New Hampshire primary results seemed a bit different from what we heard and saw that night.
Kate Riga mentioned this in the podcast episode we recorded yesterday. We heard all these wild things on Tuesday night about Trump’s resounding victory, how the nomination race is essentially over. And of course it is over if we’re talking about whether or not Trump is going to be the nominee. But I’m seeing more and more comment from the insider commentators and newsletters finally getting around to the idea that while these results almost certainly lock down the nomination, they show general election weakness rather than strength.
One example of this is an Axios alert from yesterday evening: They sent out this story with an alarm emoji followed by, “Trump’s shrinking tent.” The emphasis isn’t so much on the margin as the exit polls which suggest a substantial number of Republicans and independents aren’t comfortable with Trump being president again. Sure, we’ve seen this movie before. They come around. But we shouldn’t let a knowing pessimism substitute for the actual record. Trump lost in 2020. His party had at best a lackluster showing two years later. These things do have an impact. The question is not whether but how much and how. A lot has happened since 2020: a coup attempt, numerous felony indictments, rhetoric that manages to be more unhinged and violent than anything during his presidency.
It took 12 or 24 hours, but even the big sheets seemed to wake up a bit to the reality that Trump only being able to get just over 50% of the vote in the first two contests actually ain’t great. The fact that the last remaining candidate is basically a lightweight, a placeholder, only makes the point more clearly. He’s struggling to close the deal.
The Axios piece notes something else I was watching all day yesterday which goes directly to this point. Trump and his capos really, really want Haley to bow out. NOW. Some of that is par for the course. Every primary winner and party he or she is on the way to representing wants to put the conflict behind them and unite for the general election. But there’s something a bit more intense with Haley. Axios notes Marjorie Taylor Greene’s promise of “completely eradicating” from the party anyone who doesn’t get on board with Trump 2024 immediately. Some of it is just Trump’s ego, his need to dominate. But I think there’s a bit more to this manic impatience than Trump’s degeneracy and MTG being nuts. It gets to what I mentioned Wednesday, Trump as the warlord of the GOP. He doesn’t so much unite and lead the party as he overawes it.
One of Trump’s powers, the root of his power, is that anyone who opposes him gets run out of politics. His enemies talk him down and talk up his transgressions. But it doesn’t matter because they’re outsiders. Inside the GOP that doesn’t exist. Indeed, a central feature of the Trump era GOP has been Trump’s ability to define party identity by that loyalty. Once you really criticize the heart of Trump’s racket you’re no longer a Republican. He made that true by creating a track record of defeating and destroying any elected Republican who crossed him. But along the way it became alchemic. If they’re really criticizing Trump in a serious way you know that can’t really be Republicans. That’s what being a Republican means now. Liz Cheney may have been as conservative as they come but once she crossed that line it was a university sinecure or MSNBC. No other options. He managed to make the system self-regulating.
When Haley started talking about one of Trump’s moments of bizarre confusion (confusing her with Nancy Pelosi) suddenly it became news even though these things happen all the time. But she’s a Republican. She’s inside the tent. And that just doesn’t happen. Her continued presence in the race — if she does decide to keep at this — exposes some of the brittleness of Trump’s hold over the GOP. What’s created a novel moment, an opening, is that she’s being validated by Republican primary voters. It’s not enough of them to get her remotely close to winning the nomination. But they’re enough to validate that she’s Republican.
New Hampshire is almost certainly the high watermark because of its distinct politics and a primary open to undeclared voters. South Carolina will be an altogether different story. But South Carolina is almost a month away. That’s bad news for Haley. But it’s not great news for Trump either. That is why Trump and his deputies are so focused on Haley getting out immediately.
Will she keep at this for a few more weeks? Just as I was finishing this post I got this from TPM Reader JB …
For what it’s worth, I think your instincts are right about Nikki Haley. Money sustains campaigns, of course; when it runs out, they end. But assuming adequate funding, candidate enthusiasm matters more than anything.
I think Haley has that now. She is still the shallow careerist she has always been, but within the last few days she’s been getting notice and applause from constituencies she never really did before. I think she likes it too much to give it up easily.
I also think she likes running against a guy who gives her material nearly every day. As you noted on the podcast, Haley’s own material is pretty limited. A Republican today can be a candidate for rich people or a candidate for white people; Haley is most comfortable being the former, but the rich people’s agenda (let’s rein in entitlements!) doesn’t get crowds off their seats. Trump is feeding her straight lines; her comebacks practically write themselves, and they kill.
I think she might stay in the race for a while.
We shall see.