WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 02: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he announces the creation of the U.S. strategic critical minerals reserve during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on February 02, 202... WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 02: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he announces the creation of the U.S. strategic critical minerals reserve during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on February 02, 2026 in Washington, DC. Trump, who was joined by manufacturing leaders, administration officials and lawmakers, announced the creation of “Project Vault,” a strategic reserve of rare earth minerals to help protect American manufacturers against potential supply chain disruptions. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) MORE LESS

I had a moment of insight or perhaps revelation early in this war when the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz first became central in the news and President Trump was publicly debating whether he would use the U.S. Navy to escort ships through it. Would he, won’t he? Will it happen tomorrow? What will he decide. Then I was watching a YouTube show about maritime shipping. In passing the host, Sal Mercogliano, noted that, at that time at least, there weren’t any U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf at all. And the kind of ships you need, in the numbers you’d need, were hundreds of even thousands of miles away. That made perfect sense since for the kind of war the U.S. is currently fighting we don’t need naval vessels anywhere near that close to the combat zone, and when they are that close they become much more vulnerable to attack. But the point is that the whole debate about whether Trump was about to do that any time in the near future was entirely contained within Trump’s Truth Social world. It wasn’t connected to any of the hard realities of whether any of that was even possible.

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