We went into this administration with a seemingly durable baseline assumption that, whatever his unpopularity in other areas, President Trump had durable if not overwhelming support for his hardline immigration policies. But something started to show up in polls in the late spring or early summer.
While his numbers on “immigration” were still reasonably robust, we saw a dramatically different picture when pollster’s asked about “deportation” or Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids. Not surprisingly, “immigration” is a very big word and covers a vast range of policy territory. Looked at from a different vantage point, Trump retained a bare majority of public support on “border security” but his “deportation” policy had the support of barely one-third of the population.
G. Elliott Morris wrote about the big ranges of opposition and support within the “immigration” catchall as early as April. And the pattern and trajectory has only accelerated as ICE raids have intensified across the country. As noted, “immigration” covers a hugely broad range of beliefs and policy questions. Among other things, the politics of the deportation crackdown become almost indistinguishable from public fears and anger over the rule of law, authoritarianism and civil chaos. Indeed, the opposition to his increasingly lawless and thuggish crackdown is even pulling down his support on the “immigration” catchall question generally.
A new Gallup poll taken over the month of June shows Trump support on “handling the immigration issue” now stands at 35% with 62% opposing. Needless to say that’s a very, very low level of support, especially on what is viewed as Trump’s sheet anchor issue. Unsurprisingly, these numbers break down along sharply partisan lines, with essentially no support from Democrats, 28% support from independents and 85% of Republicans. (I’m focusing on this new Gallup poll. But the trend is evident and often in even starker terms from other pollsters. Gallup has if anything tilted, in methodological terms, slightly GOP-friendly in recent years.) Along with these numbers we also see a strong shift, much as we did in Trump’s first term, with more atmospheric support for immigration. Gallup shows a sharp uptick in the number of Americans who believe immigration is a net positive for the United States and who support various policies to open pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
As we’ve seen, these more general questions about attitudes toward immigration tend to slosh back and forth in a kind of thermostatic reaction to the policy tendency of the moment. So I wouldn’t have much confidence they wouldn’t slosh back under a more pro-immigration administration, especially if that administration was unpopular generally. That’s something Democrats should keep in mind as they try to navigate the electoral dynamics of immigration policy. While the issue is clearly demagogued in various ways, there is no question that the federal government’s ability and/or willingness to control the flow of immigration at the border is a potent electoral issue. But there’s no question that Trump’s militarized and performatively brutal immigration crackdown against more or less settled and working undocumented populations is very, very unpopular. Indeed, it is so unpopular that it is currently bringing down Trump’s support in areas (“border security”) where the last decade has shown he has a lot of latent support.