All the networks have called Louisiana. But the margin keeps shrinking. It was over 20 points at the start. But the margin is now down to 6 points – with just under 50% of precincts reporting. A key point here is that the early Trump lead included a lot absentee ballots – which by definition were older votes. None of the networks has retracted their call. But it seems like it will at least be much closer than it first seemed.
Here’s something to keep in mind about the results tonight. The frontrunners – Trump and Clinton – are having a lukewarm night. Sanders and Cruz have both already won two states. But Clinton has already been declared the winner in Louisiana and the early results at least suggest a big win for Trump too (Late Update: Louisiana has now been called for Trump.)
We have final results for Maine. Cruz (45.9%) wins convincingly. Trump (32.6%) 2nd. Kasich (12.2%) 3rd and Rubio (8%) 4th. Rubio was the only candidate to fail to surmount the 10% threshold and is shut out for delegates.
One thing to note is that all the votes for those four combined were just over 17,000 people. So small state combined with a caucus. So just a tiny number of people voting. But those are the rules.
We’re still early. But the main outstanding question seems to be whether Ted Cruz has a solid night or an amazing night. Cruz has already won the Kansas Caucus. He’s ahead by around 7 points in Maine, both with only just over 9% of the precincts reporting. In Kentucky, the only remotely recent poll showed Trump with 35%, Rubio 22% and Cruz at 15%. That was a little over a week ago. But almost 20% in, it’s Trump 42%, Cruz 31%. Rubio and Kasich far behind in the low teens. Polls close in Louisiana at 9 PM eastern.
When it comes time to write the book on the Trump campaign, you won’t need to write a book. Because we already have this picture.
This is Steve Travers, who stood behind Trump at the rally today in Tampa, with a full body “Trump Wall” suit with the lettering “Mexico Will Pay.”
At a certain point you have to wonder what they did. Because at this point it seem like God is just f ‘ing with the GOP. Like pulling wings off a fly. As you can see in the live election results data to the right, Ted Cruz looks like close to a lock to win the Kansas caucus. Only 25% of the precincts have reported so far. But he’s had roughly 50% of the tally consistently all the way so far. Unless the distribution of the returns is wildly uneven it’s hard to see how he doesn’t win. (So far no returns appear to be in from greater Kansas City metro region.) That will be Cruz’s fifth win so far. And it does not seem improbable at all that he could win at least one more. (Just as I typed this, the first 5% of precinct results came in from Maine. He’s winning there too.)
I haven’t done it in a long time. But over the years, I’ve posted charts or non-graphical updates on what kinds of browsers and operating systems people use to access TPM. So for instance, way back in January 2010 (amazingly, that’s 6 years ago), our browser breakdown was like this.
Firefox: 39.82%
Internet Explorer 29.10%
Safari 21.83%
Chrome 7.17%
Today it is …
Chrome 39.41%
Safari 28.8%
Safari (in-app) 12.48%
Firefox 10.97%
Internet Explorer 5.32%
I wrote last night that the already trembly #NeverTrump ‘movement’ would soon collapse under the weight of its own ridiculousness. And that is even more clear this afternoon. Mitt Romney appears to be the only actual member of the #NeverTrump ‘movement’. Small movement. Sad!
Like I said last night, #NeverTrump is really #EventuallyTrump. In a Kentucky radio interview today, Marco Rubio is forced to admit that #NeverTrump actually only applies for the primaries. Audio here.
TPM Reader CS …
Having listened to (much) of the debate last night and read your commentary, I am struck by the fact that we seem to have become perfectly comfortable with moderators that are actively, openly, and aggressively trying to undermine a single candidate.