Editors’ Blog
Keep an eye on the events out of Israel. It seems possible they’re reaching some kind of turning point, though one hesitates to use that phrase about a country which has been in such an extended political paralysis for so long. The key to understand is that whatever crisis or shift may be in the works isn’t driven by the issues animating coverage in the U.S. To the extent it is tied to the Israel-Hamas war it is about the hostages and the widespread belief that the Netanyahu government isn’t that focused on striking a deal to get them home. Hovering around this is the fact that the government has at best tended to ignore and shun the hostages families. The communities along the border with Gaza tend to be made up of left-leaning Kibbutznik types. So they’re not Netanyahu’s people by any stretch of the imagination. That’s been a subtext to much that has happened over the last six months.
You also have the anti-judicial coup coalition which was holding massive weekly protests for almost a year before October 7th going back to the streets. All of that had stopped cold on October 7th. It’s been slowing reassembling since. But the protests this weekend are bigger than any since just before the massacres in southern Israel. They are now a coupled message for the government to resign and to bring the hostages home.
Read MoreWe are still in the running to hit 700 new TPM Members by the end of today. We’re currently at 644. 56 more of you on a Friday afternoon is a tall order. But it’s possible. Please listen to this: If you’ve been considering joining during our drive, please choose to do it today, right now. It will take just a couple minutes tops. Click right here and let’s see if we can do this together.
Late Update: We might actually get there! 668!
Later Update: 11:56 PM on the east. But we’re at 680 and there’s still time out West. In range! Become part of our club!
Even Later Update: 687! Saturday is the new Friday! 700 is within reach!
Let me add a brief follow-up to my post from last night which seems to have resonated with people. I’ll say it again: I don’t think this is going to happen. But this isn’t just a caveat or covering myself if it doesn’t. It’s kind of why I did the post. In life and political analysis (and so many other things) we’re constantly having to be on the look out for new data which challenges our assumptions about what’s happening. In this case, the data points I mentioned definitely challenge my assumptions about what’s happening. And I’m still sticking with my assumptions! But those data points are high volume enough, not random little edge case things, that it’s at least worth me clearing my throat and telling myself I’m seeing a bunch of things that don’t square with my assumptions, sort of a punditing note to file if you will.
As I said, I’m sticking with my assumptions. But keep it in the back of your head, or write your own note to file.
Is the GOP Gonna Break Down? 
In this post I’m going to suggest something that is possible but still unlikely. But it would be a big enough deal that I think it’s worth having in the back of your mind as we move into the 2024 election season. It’s become a cliche that House Republicans are beset by division, dysfunction and general comedy. In a way this has been the story for years and yet, despite the antics, total indifference to doing the actual work of governing and more, they still seem to do okay. And yet, I think there’s some argument that this Congress is in a different category. The entire 118th Congress has been one long-running shutdown drama. Mike Johnson is now effectively running the House with Democratic votes. Then there’s the indicator which is harder to brush off: a non-trivial number of Republican representatives are just quitting. In a couple cases, we’ve seen them quit without even having a new gig lined up. Apparently more may go.
Read MoreLooking at our numbers now I think there’s a good chance we can get to 700 new members by tomorrow. We’re currently at 587. If we get to 700 that will be almost 3/4 of the way toward our goal. Which is amazing. We know you come here for the news and commentary and insights and exclusives, not our drives. So I want to see if we can make a dash toward the home stretch. If you’ve been thinking about joining us I want to ask if you can make today the day … like right now, take two minutes out of your daily routine and click here and become part of the TPM team. Just like right this moment, click the link and let’s do it. You’ll be really glad you did and it’ll be a shot in the arm of the whole staff. Just click right here.
A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss Supreme Court arguments on mifepristone, updates in Donald Trump’s many trials and the likely next senator of New Jersey.
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
Big Normie Energy
We seem to have moved on, for the moment at least, from the Replace Biden!/Thunderdome Convention discourse. But a new poll out today reminds us of a key issue about Biden. Earlier this year a lot of people were operating on the assumption that the Democratic policy agenda is more popular with Americans and that President Biden is unpopular and old, both literally and metaphorically. So basically any other Democrat under 60 who’s got a little electoral success under their belt would be on course to defeating Trump, or at least doing substantially better than Biden.
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Was Ronna X Trump Bait for a Scaredy-Cat-NBC?
In response to yesterday’s post on Ronna X TPM Reader JG said I may be missing the true elephant in the room, and by that he means something a number of others have suggested over the last 48 hours or so. That idea is that this doesn’t have anything to do with having Ronna on the air at all. She’s there to prepare for Trump’s possible return to power, an insurance policy, as it were. There’s an additional layer of this. NBC is a big corporation with a bunch of channels and entertainment brands. But it’s part of Comcast which is a huge media and telecom conglomerate with interests across various sectors of the economy. If you’re Comcast this isn’t just a matter of NBC News or NBC. You have to worry about whether Trump is going to go to war with Comcast itself, which is vulnerable on numerous business and regulatory fronts, if he gets mad at NBC News.
I guess I thought this was implicit in what I wrote yesterday. But it definitely wasn’t my emphasis. What I was focused on yesterday was how this works when you don’t have a lawless authoritarian in the White House. But when you do, well … yes, that introduces a whole new dimension to it.
Read MoreWe’re currently at 437 new members in our Annual TPM Membership Drive. It’s really important we get that to 500 by tomorrow. If you’re not a member, can you make today the day? It’s really important. Just click here.
Late Update: Currently at 499!!!!!!!
The Lonesome Tale of Ronna X
We’re seeing an ongoing — and to me, pretty comical — garbage fire at NBC News over the hiring of Ronna McDaniel (or who I guess we might call Ronna X, since her last name may be subject to ongoing contract negotiation) as a paid contributor. I’ll assume you’ve seen at least some reports on the controversy. I want to add three things. First a personal aside, second a guess about what happened and third something about the structural roots of “bothsidesist” news coverage.
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