Editors’ Blog

Rethinking Gun Policy Literalism

Yesterday I noticed this Axios poll which found that gun violence has soared past opioids and fentanyl as the country’s biggest public health concern. There are some caveats to this data point. It’s jumped from 17% of respondents calling it the greatest threat to 26%. Perhaps more importantly, it’s a jump since February. So this may be a blip more than a trend, though there is polling evidence suggesting a more sustained trend. But in line with yesterday’s discussion of trends bubbling under the national political conversation, this data point got me thinking about the politics of gun control itself (and, yes, I’m using the old fashioned “gun control” phrasing intentionally).

These new polls aren’t polls testing assault rifle bans or background checks. They focus more on threats to public health, whether mass shooting massacres are preventable and more. It’s worth considering whether we must rethink the politics of guns as a matter of public advocacy.

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DeSantis Campaign Launch Gut Check

I usually talk about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his presidential quest in a comedic tone. But with numerous public reports that he is formally launching his presidential quest next week I wanted to shift registers and take stock of his incipient campaign.

As I’ve written before in other contexts, the most lethal danger for any politician is to become an object of humor, ridicule and contempt. A candidate can survive more easily with a reputation for being evil (see Trump) than being ridiculous. DeSantis is hovering right on the edge of the latter category if he’s not already there. He has also — largely through his own actions — created a bipartisan cast of public characters eager to keep him there.

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Leading Edge

Fascist curious GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has an idea for addressing GOP challenges with young voters that is likely to catch on with other Republicans: don’t let them vote. I had missed this when he first mentioned it a week ago. But Ramaswamy proposed barring people under the age of 25 from voting unless they serve in the military or are a first responder. He might also allow it if they passed a citizenship test like the one given to new citizens.

Where Things Stand: Another GOPer Is Warning The Party Will ‘Suffer’ Over Abortion In 2024
This is your TPM evening briefing.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is a rape survivor who has spoken out about her party’s egregious and restrictive stances on abortion before, specifically when red states pass legislation banning abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest.

As it becomes increasingly clear that extreme Republicans positioning on abortion is, in actuality, helping Democrats win elections, Mace is begging her party to figure out how to position itself in a way that looks, at the very least, like cosplaying as compassionate toward women. Make no mistake, Mace is supportive of some restrictions on the procedure, but she tends to not get specific — like the rest of her party — beyond cautioning her colleagues away from “extremes.”

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Motto: I Was Told This Was a Sure Thing
Listen To This: Non-Negotiating Negotiating

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss the debt ceiling dynamics, attempts to expel George Santos and some legal news on abortion and gerrymandering.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Under the Radar

With so much high drama and stark danger in the headlines, I wanted to focus your attention on something different, and arguably much more important. This has been underway for months. But now it’s managed to break into the pages of insider sheets like Axios, which is a news event in itself. The quick and short of it: Democrats continue to over-perform in election after election.

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Where Things Stand: McCarthy Pulls Off Hide-Behind-Due-Process Charade
This is your TPM evening briefing.

Whether or not Rep. George Santos (R-NY), with his 13-count indictment, should stay in Congress is not a matter Republicans are going to have to weigh in on — for now.

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Hmmmm

Sen. Josh Hawley says that if he were Joe Biden he consider simply ignoring the debt limit. “Because I would just be like, ‘Listen, I’m not gonna let us default. So end of story. Y’all will do whatever you want to do.’ But I’m not necessarily giving him that advice. It’s against my interest.”

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The Big Picture

One other point on Trump/Russia as we put the sad tale of the “Durham Report” to bed.

The Russian government intervened in the 2016 presidential election to assist Donald Trump. The Trump campaign was repeatedly informed of this assistance, welcomed it, asked for more of it and took numerous affirmative steps to profit from the assistance. While we can never know with certainty, given the closeness of the election there is every reason to believe that that assistance provided Trump with the margin of victory to become President. The fruits of that subversion campaign dominated much of the final months of the election.

Given the narrow bounds of the subsequent investigation, there is almost certainly much more we still don’t know about the cooperation between the two sides. But in any normal universe the proven facts alone would have fatally discredited Trump’s presidency and led to his forced resignation or removal from office.

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