This thread by Ian Kearns is the best I’ve seen so far capturing the totality of the situation in the Russo-Ukraine War and what we can and can’t do about it. It is an extremely dangerous crisis because both sides now have themselves committed to what they see as commitments and needs they cannot walk away from. He does a good job in my mind of making clear the need for both firmness/resolve and restraint and — since that’s easy enough to agree with and say in the abstract — just what those mean in this context.

I think that on balance the U.S. is making the correct decisions with respect to the Ukraine War and I disagree with the thrust of the arguments in this piece by Michael Hirsch in Foreign Policy. Russia’s actions are likely a better measure of their intentions than their words. But it’s a close run thing and I recommend the article to you. The gist of the argument is that the U.S. is creating a situation with no obvious end game, no off-ramps. We’re pursuing a policy the end of which is complete defeat for Russia in Ukraine rather than a political settlement. We’re stating explicitly a policy of weakening Russian military power and influence around the globe. That comes with real dangers and we should understand them, even if the risks are necessary.

I wanted to flag your attention to a relatively little seen op-ed by a former federal judge named J. Michael Luttig. The title of the piece: “The Republican blueprint to steal the 2024 election.” Pretty red meat, right? His focus is something we’ve talked about before, the so-called “Independent State Legislature” doctrine. This is the idea — a truly absurd and tendentious reading of the constitution — that holds that state legislatures are the arbiters of the conduct and also the results of federal elections, entirely independent and above the laws of the given state and even the state’s constitution. But before we get into that, let’s get back to Luttig himself who I’ve rather breezily described as a “former federal judge.”

Earlier this week, Chris Hayes did a nice job pulling together the various elements surrounding Vice President Mike Pence’s movements (or lack thereof) during the Jan. 6 attempted coup. Some of this has been known for months, other pieces of it have been revealed more recently, but I haven’t seen anyone else bring it all together in one place:

I will admit: I have watched every episode ever of the documentary-style “Ghost Trackers” and “Haunted,” as well as the fictionalized adaptations of the hauntings of “Bly Manor” and “Hill House.”

If there’s a fleck of dust in a dark room and you wanna call it an orb, I’m there.

But Roger Stone could perhaps stand to watch a few episodes of “Ghost Brothers” or “Haunted Towns” — particularly the episodes when they talk about how basic things like light reflections work — before he starts proclaiming evidence of “satanic portals.”

From TPM Reader PT …

I think what’s been really puzzling about the Z War this last week or so is the disconnect between Russia’s propaganda / rhetoric and its actions. 

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss the deluge of texts and tapes giving insight into what Republican lawmakers were doing during and before January 6.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Let me share a few further thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine, the progress of the Ukraine-Russia war and the chances for further escalation and/or expansion of the conflict. No one knows what’s coming next or how Russia might respond to its escalating mix of battlefield reverses and national humiliations. Without any specialized knowledge in the area I’m especially in the dark. So I rely on the opinion of people who I believe are knowledgeable and have good judgment. For me, in this area, one of those is Tom Nichols. (He’s a defense academic specializing in Russia/Soviet Union and nuclear deterrence policy.) In this thread last night he made clear he’s very concerned about the present situation and what is behind or what is signaled by the escalating rhetoric emanating from Moscow. Maybe not panic level, but very concerned. The salient point from him though is that the decisions about some erratic escalatory actions are going to be made in Moscow and there aren’t a lot levers we have to affect it. That’s a very sobering conclusion.

Here’s an interesting and thought provoking Twitter thread by a Rand Corporation political scientist, Mike Mazarr, on the chances of a major Russian escalation in Ukraine. It touches on some points I noted yesterday about the dangers of Russian weakness and military failure. (It builds in part off this piece from a British national security think tank, “Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion.”) On the ground in Ukraine it looks like Russia has failed miserably at its initial war aims and strategies and is now trying to grind out much more limited ambitions in the east. But within Russia and in Russian media rhetoric has escalated to make Ukraine itself almost a side issue. They portray Russia as in an existential struggle or holy war, a war that is really against NATO and the U.S. “Russian television has been flooded with statements urging escalation as part of an existential struggle.” A top legislative leader says: “This is a metaphysical clash between the forces of good and evil… This is truly a holy war we’re waging and we must win.”

Crazy stuff.

There’s not a ton to make of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) remarks from the Senate floor today — when he suggested that President Biden is “moving in our direction” on student debt forgiveness.

But he could be signaling a few things.