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A Few More Thoughts on Russia Escalation

MOSCOW, RUSSIA - FEBRUARY 23, 2022: Russia's President Vladimir Putin takes part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow's Alexander Garden on Defender of the Fatherland Day. Alexei N... MOSCOW, RUSSIA - FEBRUARY 23, 2022: Russia's President Vladimir Putin takes part in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow's Alexander Garden on Defender of the Fatherland Day. Alexei Nikolsky/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS (Photo by Alexei NikolskyTASS via Getty Images) MORE LESS
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April 28, 2022 10:49 a.m.

Let me share a few further thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine, the progress of the Ukraine-Russia war and the chances for further escalation and/or expansion of the conflict. No one knows what’s coming next or how Russia might respond to its escalating mix of battlefield reverses and national humiliations. Without any specialized knowledge in the area I’m especially in the dark. So I rely on the opinion of people who I believe are knowledgeable and have good judgment. For me, in this area, one of those is Tom Nichols. (He’s a defense academic specializing in Russia/Soviet Union and nuclear deterrence policy.) In this thread last night he made clear he’s very concerned about the present situation and what is behind or what is signaled by the escalating rhetoric emanating from Moscow. Maybe not panic level, but very concerned. The salient point from him though is that the decisions about some erratic escalatory actions are going to be made in Moscow and there aren’t a lot levers we have to affect it. That’s a very sobering conclusion.

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