Bill Clinton’s reference to Jesse Jackson’s wins in South Carolina pretty much speaks for itself. But there’s a further part of the story that’s well worth pointing out. TPM Reader JZ wrote in last night to point out that in 1984 and 1988, the nominations were pretty much sewn up by Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis by the time South Carolina’s caucuses (at the time it was a caucus not a primary) rolled around. So they were at best lightly contested. This jibed with my memory, but I wasn’t sure. So I went back and looked up some old articles. And sure enough he’s right. I thought I’d share a couple quick clips with as further illustration …
First, from the Christian Science Monitor, March 15th, 1984 …
South Carolina listened for a clear message from its Southern neighbors on Super Tuesday,” but heard only a garbled one. So Democrats in the state will go to caucus meetings Saturday guided by their own, often uncertain leanings in the campaign for a presidential nominee.
The presidential race has almost bypassed them, since most of the candidates avoided the home turf of the popular Sen. Ernest Hollings. Since he bowed out, South Carolina has been left in a quandary.
Jesse Jackson, born in the state, has a core of support within the black community. And in only two weeks a spirited, grass-roots effort for him has appeared almost from nowhere and with almost no funds.
But the big winner on Saturday is expected to be Mr. No-name: The state has a long tradition of picking uncommitted delegates.
Second, from March 11th, 1988 in Newsday …
In between the mighty Super Tuesday wave of last week and the big roller of next Tuesday’s Illinois primary, there is a nice little backwash of a Democratic contest tomorrow that will neither dash hopes nor do much to elevate them.
This is the South Carolina caucus, too late to point the way to who will get the Democratic nomination and too small to be decisive in terms of delegate numbers.
Nevertheless, there it is, not 1,307 delegates like Super Tuesday’s states offered, not the Illinois prize of 173 delegates, but a 44-delegate package that is good to have but not so terrible if it is lost either. And a few of the Democrats are making their play.
“Jesse Jackson is going to win this caucus,” said Bill Prince, a government lobbying specialist for an ad agency here. “And he’s going to win it big.”
This is talk one might expect from a Jackson supporter. But Prince is state coordinator for Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, whose campaign has been devastated by unexpected Super Tuesday rejections.
“Half the people at the caucuses will be black,” Prince said, adding that Jackson, a native of Greenville, is a favorite son. “We have no illusions of finishing first or even second,” he said.
By contrast, backers of Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee, the conqueror of Gephardt on Super Tuesday, are elated. While the Gephardt campaign canceled plans for commercials here, the Gore camp has decided to put on a two-day TV and radio effort to start today.
…
The supporters of Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis are also cheered by their candidate’s Super Tuesday victories and the surge it might give him in South Carolina. They’ve sent out a mailing to thousands of prospective caucus delegates and have begun phone-bank operations.
“I would be very pleased with a third-place finish,” said Mike Pritchard, an active Dukakis volunteer. “But we may be better than that.”
No visits here are expected from the Massachusetts governor, who is stumping in Illinois, but both Jackson and Gore, who were also in Illinois yesterday, are scheduled to make appearances in this state today. And although Gephardt pulled his ad money out to help him make an all-or-nothing stand in Michigan, which votes March 26, he toured South Carolina both Wednesday and yesterday before heading for Chicago.
It’s hard to get a complete picture of the state of the 1984 and 1988 campaigns without a closer examination. But what these articles make clear is that unlike this year South Carolina was only lightly or moderately contested by the frontrunning candidates. And certainly in 1984 and to a large degree in 1988, the nomination contest was already decided, which contributed significantly to Jackson’s wins. What’s more, caucuses are much easier to win with legwork and organization than primaries if your competitors are not making a big effort in the state.
None of this is to diminish Jackson’s wins. 1984 was almost a quarter of a century ago. And at the end of the day he did win there twice. But in addition to whatever else he was trying to convey, Bill Clinton’s statement about Jackson’s victories was, while accurate, highly misleading on something like three or four different counts.
In case you missed it, here’s the video of the comments …
