This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
Has President Donald Trump survived the latest and most serious firestorm of controversy over the Epstein scandal? Or has the Trump administration’s handling of the release of information concerning the prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted child sex trafficker and Trump’s former friend, hurt the president?
A number of journalists, pointing to recent public opinion polls, have claimed that the scandal has hurt Trump. Others have argued that the public has largely moved on and the Epstein controversy no longer presents a political liability for Trump.
But both of these conclusions are based on limited polling about the Epstein controversy and thus may be premature.
Our recent University of Massachusetts Amherst national poll includes particularly detailed questions about the Epstein controversy and attitudes toward Trump, and thus provides fresh insights on how the controversy has affected public support for Trump.
We find that Trump’s handling of the Epstein controversy has done significant damage to his standing, particularly among his core supporters.
Trump ‘fumbling the matter’
Americans are paying close attention to the prolonged Epstein controversy. Our polling finds that 3 in 4 respondents have heard, read or seen “a lot” or “some” about Epstein.
Moreover, most believe that Trump is fumbling the matter.
Seven in 10 Americans believe that Trump is handling the matter “not well.” This includes pluralities of Trump’s most loyal supporters, 43% of Republicans, 43% of conservatives, and 47% of those who voted for him in 2024.
When we drill down on the 47% of 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Epstein controversy, we find significant cracks in the MAGA facade. Among members of this group, 28% now disapprove of Trump as president.
When we take demographics, ideology, partisanship and assessments of the economy into account, disapproval of Trump’s handling of the release of the Epstein files is still associated with an increase in disapproval of Trump.
Voter regret
Even more significantly, we find that among 2024 Trump voters, negative views of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files are associated with an increased desire to make a different choice if the 2024 election could be rerun.
More specifically, among Trump voters who believe that the president has mishandled the release of the Epstein files, more than one quarter – 26% – indicate that they would not vote for Trump if they had the opportunity to vote again in the 2024 election.
While there are no election do-overs, it is clear that the Epstein scandal has hurt Trump among his base of voters.
Much can happen between now and the midterm elections in November 2026, of course.
But if Trump fails to satisfy his political base, perceptions among Trump voters that he has mishandled the controversy could reduce enthusiasm and participation in the elections. Even if the share of Republicans alienated by the Epstein controversy is relatively small, this could hurt Republicans in close contests.
With over a year to go, the facts on the ground will likely change. But as of today, the controversy over the release of the Epstein files remains relevant. Whether the president responds in a manner that satisfies his voters is a question that could have important political consequences.
As with all things Republican, those expressing that they are unhappy enough to likely vote differently next time will fall in line when meaningful choice time arrives.
We need to give them more reasons to be unhappy with TFG than just Epstein, although their disregard for all his other lies is telling.
Edit: and disappointing.
When I hear Joe Rogan saying he regrets his vote for Cheeto, I wait for the next question, “Do you regret not allowing the nice black lady on your show?” …
…
While there are no election do-overs, it is clear that the Epstein scandal has hurt Trump among his base of voters.
I remember how low his poll numbers went after the committee on the Jan 6 coup attempt laid out so clearly the wrong that had been done.
And yet here we are.
Until the tech lords are done with him or Vance, we’re stuck with Republicans.
Womp, womp!
Another reason: selling access (aka bribery) to a fare-the-well. An article in a recent New Yorker lays this out:at How Much Is Trump Profiting Off the Presidency? | The New Yorker. Looks like about 10K times the POTUS salary.