The situation remains fluid in the South Korean capital of Seoul. But I wanted to update you on some breaking events.

A successful coup generally involves three things. One is securing the support of major national stakeholders — the military, security services, the business community, a major political party, etc. Coups aren’t democracies of course. But they seldom succeed without significant bases of support. Another is controlling access to major power centers and communications centers. Yet another is being able and willing to use force to back up that control.

President Yoon’s coup attempt seems not to be succeeding at any of these.

A short time ago, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, claiming it was necessary to root out North Korean sympathizers in the the South. So far it hasn’t gone like your standard presidential coup. Unsurprisingly, the leader of the opposition denounced the move. But then so too did the head of Yoon’s own political party. Yoon is a Trump-like figure and he’s been mired in declining popularity, a series of scandals and budget stand-offs with the opposition. In other words, the “threat” seems more Yoon’s plummeting public support than any communist infiltration in the South. Militaries of course operate by their own logic. But absent a threat that military leaders find compelling — communism during the Cold War — they generally won’t join up with a President who is already flailing.