The situation remains fluid in the South Korean capital of Seoul. But I wanted to update you on some breaking events.
A successful coup generally involves three things. One is securing the support of major national stakeholders — the military, security services, the business community, a major political party, etc. Coups aren’t democracies of course. But they seldom succeed without significant bases of support. Another is controlling access to major power centers and communications centers. Yet another is being able and willing to use force to back up that control.
President Yoon’s coup attempt seems not to be succeeding at any of these.
By my current understanding the President of South Korea can declare martial law in some instances. But the legislature can overrule such a declaration. I’m not clear on under just what conditions a president can do that. It’s possible I have the first part of that wrong or I may have an incomplete understanding of just what the president can do. But according to the news reports I am seeing, the parliament can overrule it. That point seems clear. To prevent this Yoon declared a suspension of all parliamentary activity. And some mix of police and military forces converged on the parliament building to close it down. So parliament can’t overrule it if they can’t meet and hold a vote.
But a quorum of parliamentarians were able to get into the building, brought the parliament into session and held the vote. Video shows armed members of security services basically unwilling to use force against them. The head of the opposition said that police refused him entry into the parliament building. He then climbed over a fence. (Again, not a well-run coup.) Note that at least earlier the head of Yoon’s own political party denounced his move. So it may not have been only members of the opposition who voted to overrule him. News reports suggest at least some number of members of Yoon’s own party voted to rescind his declaration. News video on social media shows what appear to be soldiers leaving the parliament chamber after the vote. Reports that I haven’t been able to securely confirm say that military has left the complex altogether.
Coups don’t generally follow constitutional niceties. That’s what makes them coups. But the parliament appears to have removed whatever notional legality attached to the declaration of martial law. So the ball now seems to be in Yoon’s court as to whether he’ll follow the law and whether the military will back him if he doesn’t.
